SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
Closest race: South Carolina Senate, D +1.3
2026 midterm forecast ยท 12 days out

Every 2026 race, in one place.

Pick a layer to see its map, its odds and its closest races. Click any state or district to open the full forecast for that race.

Updated
Oct 22
Simulations
2,000
Generic ballot
D +12.0
Early ballots
14.0M
Senate

35 Senate seats on the ballot

Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RLean INo race

Every senate race

35 shown
RaceCandidatesMarginPollsChanceRating
South Carolina SenateIncumbent runningAnnie AndrewsvsDarline GrahamD +1.3Poll, 1,095, R +1.7, 0 days agoPoll, 294, D +3.5, 0 days agoPoll, 837, R +4.5, 7 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +1.0, 16 days agoPoll, 1,087, Even, 20 days agoPoll, 1,006, R +5.5, 31 days agoPoll, 1,200, R +0.1, 36 days agoPoll, 700, R +1.7, 52 days agoPoll, 900, D +1.3, 54 days ago956%Toss up
Alaska SenateIncumbent runningMary PeltolavsDan S. SullivanD +1.7Poll, 578, R +0.3, 0 days agoPoll, 775, D +1.8, 0 days agoPoll, 694, D +0.8, 0 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +2.1, 5 days agoPoll, 1,512, D +0.6, 12 days agoPoll, 504, D +6.3, 14 days agoPoll, 758, D +1.1, 14 days agoPoll, 1,079, R +0.8, 21 days agoPoll, 799, D +1.1, 28 days agoPoll, 1,188, R +1.6, 31 days agoPoll, 1,352, D +4.3, 33 days agoPoll, 800, D +5.4, 34 days agoPoll, 1,495, D +2.3, 53 days agoPoll, 1,371, D +2.3, 71 days agoPoll, 578, D +2.8, 72 days agoPoll, 593, R +3.1, 108 days ago2762%Toss up
Texas SenateIncumbent runningJames TalaricovsKen PaxtonD +1.9Poll, 1,458, D +1.1, 0 days agoPoll, 385, D +5.8, 0 days agoPoll, 1,398, R +0.3, 0 days agoPoll, 400, D +3.8, 1 days agoPoll, 800, R +0.9, 1 days agoPoll, 2,000, D +2.0, 1 days agoPoll, 934, D +5.0, 2 days agoPoll, 950, R +0.1, 4 days agoPoll, 839, D +1.3, 4 days agoPoll, 617, D +3.3, 7 days agoPoll, 1,086, D +4.2, 7 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +2.9, 10 days agoPoll, 3,625, D +5.1, 10 days agoPoll, 615, D +5.3, 15 days agoPoll, 1,128, D +0.5, 16 days agoPoll, 881, D +1.7, 17 days agoPoll, 800, D +2.4, 17 days agoPoll, 850, R +0.8, 17 days agoPoll, 800, R +0.6, 18 days agoPoll, 698, D +2.0, 19 days agoPoll, 856, D +1.9, 21 days agoPoll, 1,007, D +3.4, 23 days agoPoll, 1,139, D +3.6, 25 days agoPoll, 1,800, D +1.5, 26 days agoPoll, 1,079, D +2.2, 28 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +1.8, 31 days agoPoll, 649, D +5.5, 32 days agoPoll, 614, D +5.3, 34 days agoPoll, 625, D +3.8, 35 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +1.1, 36 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +3.9, 41 days agoPoll, 895, D +3.4, 44 days agoPoll, 1,167, D +1.7, 50 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +4.5, 52 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +2.7, 63 days agoPoll, 1,000, R +0.2, 66 days agoPoll, 1,001, D +0.5, 76 days agoPoll, 619, D +3.4, 77 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +2.5, 77 days agoPoll, 1,005, D +2.5, 80 days ago4065%Toss up
Iowa SenateOpen seatJosh TurekvsAshley HinsonD +2.4Poll, 1,094, R +0.5, 0 days agoPoll, 863, D +1.0, 0 days agoPoll, 491, D +4.7, 0 days agoPoll, 602, D +2.0, 2 days agoPoll, 2,245, D +0.2, 3 days agoPoll, 678, R +2.1, 3 days agoPoll, 512, D +0.9, 4 days agoPoll, 650, R +1.2, 9 days agoPoll, 801, R +3.0, 10 days agoPoll, 500, D +2.6, 11 days agoPoll, 606, R +1.7, 14 days agoPoll, 1,028, D +5.3, 15 days agoPoll, 714, R +0.1, 16 days agoPoll, 1,008, D +1.7, 17 days agoPoll, 650, D +3.6, 22 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +1.8, 22 days agoPoll, 1,050, D +5.7, 25 days agoPoll, 1,089, R +0.9, 27 days agoPoll, 831, R +0.7, 29 days agoPoll, 500, D +1.0, 34 days agoPoll, 1,031, D +6.3, 35 days agoPoll, 2,041, D +3.2, 37 days agoPoll, 750, R +4.2, 44 days agoPoll, 800, D +1.7, 45 days agoPoll, 323, D +7.5, 48 days agoPoll, 500, R +5.6, 53 days agoPoll, 712, R +2.2, 72 days agoPoll, 1,003, D +3.5, 110 days agoPoll, 600, R +2.7, 110 days agoPoll, 600, R +0.9, 118 days ago3565%Lean D
Kansas SenateIncumbent runningAdam HamiltonvsRoger MarshallD +2.8Poll, 479, D +1.8, 0 days agoPoll, 800, R +0.9, 1 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +1.1, 5 days agoPoll, 600, D +2.6, 11 days agoPoll, 600, D +2.7, 11 days agoPoll, 2,255, D +2.2, 11 days agoPoll, 1,095, D +2.1, 14 days agoPoll, 605, R +0.6, 15 days agoPoll, 750, D +2.8, 29 days agoPoll, 800, D +1.6, 29 days agoPoll, 915, R +1.0, 35 days agoPoll, 800, R +1.3, 60 days agoPoll, 569, R +2.0, 68 days agoPoll, 600, R +6.3, 94 days ago1567%Lean D
Maine SenateIncumbent runningTroy JacksonvsSusan CollinsD +2.1Poll, 800, D +2.1, 1 days agoPoll, 500, D +0.2, 4 days agoPoll, 804, D +1.5, 7 days agoPoll, 800, D +2.8, 10 days agoPoll, 1,505, D +1.5, 11 days agoPoll, 1,144, R +0.9, 14 days agoPoll, 1,091, D +1.5, 14 days agoPoll, 1,240, D +2.0, 15 days agoPoll, 684, D +0.6, 16 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +0.9, 22 days agoPoll, 982, D +2.4, 23 days agoPoll, 619, R +3.7, 23 days agoPoll, 1,312, D +4.3, 24 days agoPoll, 621, D +0.8, 30 days agoPoll, 650, D +4.2, 31 days agoPoll, 1,033, D +2.4, 35 days agoPoll, 1,335, D +3.2, 37 days agoPoll, 880, D +1.9, 39 days agoPoll, 327, D +7.5, 48 days agoPoll, 1,000, Even, 66 days agoPoll, 802, D +3.0, 75 days agoPoll, 1,178, D +3.3, 87 days agoPoll, 988, R +2.3, 99 days agoPoll, 785, D +4.0, 100 days ago2468%Lean D
Nebraska SenateIncumbent runningDan OsbornvsPete RickettsI +3.2Poll, 800, R +0.3, 10 days agoPoll, 1,809, I +0.1, 12 days agoPoll, 1,113, R +1.3, 15 days agoPoll, 503, I +3.4, 32 days agoPoll, 800, R +1.4, 37 days agoPoll, 600, R +2.0, 63 days ago1171%Lean I
Michigan SenateOpen seatAbdul El-SayedvsMike RogersD +3.1Poll, 518, D +5.9, 0 days agoPoll, 1,025, R +0.2, 0 days agoPoll, 798, D +1.5, 1 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +2.1, 5 days agoPoll, 600, D +0.2, 7 days agoPoll, 762, D +2.8, 9 days agoPoll, 600, D +3.9, 10 days agoPoll, 3,949, D +0.1, 11 days agoPoll, 682, D +4.0, 14 days agoPoll, 483, D +5.5, 14 days agoPoll, 1,085, D +3.0, 15 days agoPoll, 1,028, D +0.7, 17 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +4.6, 18 days agoPoll, 600, D +2.8, 18 days agoPoll, 678, D +4.1, 21 days agoPoll, 843, D +3.9, 22 days agoPoll, 800, D +1.7, 23 days agoPoll, 613, D +4.3, 23 days agoPoll, 600, D +6.5, 24 days agoPoll, 500, D +5.3, 25 days agoPoll, 643, D +1.5, 26 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +2.0, 28 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +2.8, 31 days agoPoll, 803, D +1.9, 31 days agoPoll, 1,079, D +2.2, 36 days agoPoll, 843, D +1.9, 39 days agoPoll, 600, R +1.0, 42 days agoPoll, 332, D +2.5, 48 days agoPoll, 600, D +4.7, 48 days agoPoll, 779, D +4.1, 56 days agoPoll, 800, D +7.8, 59 days agoPoll, 877, D +2.3, 65 days agoPoll, 1,006, R +6.1, 66 days agoPoll, 800, D +3.6, 66 days agoPoll, 1,215, D +2.7, 66 days agoPoll, 600, R +2.8, 76 days ago4072%Lean D
Ohio Senate specialIncumbent runningSherrod BrownvsJon HustedD +3.8Poll, 400, R +0.4, 0 days agoPoll, 635, D +4.3, 0 days agoPoll, 883, D +1.9, 0 days agoPoll, 1,592, D +4.7, 0 days agoPoll, 901, R +0.6, 1 days agoPoll, 959, D +6.0, 2 days agoPoll, 925, D +2.7, 9 days agoPoll, 760, D +4.9, 10 days agoPoll, 616, D +2.3, 14 days agoPoll, 3,780, D +3.1, 15 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +1.1, 16 days agoPoll, 682, D +3.9, 18 days agoPoll, 1,298, D +5.6, 18 days agoPoll, 500, D +1.3, 18 days agoPoll, 695, D +2.3, 22 days agoPoll, 1,115, D +2.5, 22 days agoPoll, 1,085, D +4.2, 29 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +2.2, 35 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +6.9, 36 days agoPoll, 306, D +4.5, 48 days agoPoll, 1,008, D +5.9, 66 days agoPoll, 600, D +2.8, 72 days agoPoll, 601, R +3.7, 109 days ago3279%Lean D
Mississippi SenateIncumbent runningScott ColomvsCindy Hyde-SmithR +5.1Poll, 1,018, R +7.0, 61 days ago280%Lean R
Florida SenateIncumbent runningAngie NixonvsAshley MoodyR +5.8Poll, 378, R +6.8, 0 days agoPoll, 400, R +6.2, 0 days agoPoll, 825, R +10.1, 0 days agoPoll, 1,471, R +3.6, 0 days agoPoll, 1,014, R +4.2, 0 days agoPoll, 2,351, R +6.5, 5 days agoPoll, 2,351, R +6.5, 5 days agoPoll, 716, R +7.9, 6 days agoPoll, 836, R +3.8, 8 days agoPoll, 3,813, R +5.8, 10 days agoPoll, 847, R +7.7, 11 days agoPoll, 625, R +9.2, 14 days agoPoll, 1,063, R +2.7, 18 days agoPoll, 600, R +5.0, 24 days agoPoll, 830, R +7.9, 24 days agoPoll, 913, R +1.7, 28 days agoPoll, 733, R +5.3, 35 days agoPoll, 1,107, R +1.7, 36 days ago1885%Lean R
Arkansas SenateIncumbent runningHallie ShoffnervsTom CottonR +9.5Poll, 709, R +10.4, 2 days agoPoll, 550, R +8.6, 11 days agoPoll, 803, R +15.2, 58 days agoPoll, 1,217, D +1.6, 64 days agoPoll, 586, R +4.8, 82 days ago694%Likely R
New Hampshire SenateOpen seatChris PappasvsJohn E. SununuD +10.3Poll, 600, D +7.9, 3 days agoPoll, 1,520, D +7.1, 10 days agoPoll, 979, D +6.4, 11 days agoPoll, 1,042, D +6.6, 16 days agoPoll, 1,082, D +8.1, 18 days agoPoll, 613, D +4.3, 23 days agoPoll, 1,418, D +8.3, 24 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +9.9, 28 days agoPoll, 958, D +4.0, 34 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +12.2, 35 days agoPoll, 600, D +1.0, 46 days agoPoll, 1,878, R +1.7, 52 days agoPoll, 1,411, D +6.7, 58 days agoPoll, 500, D +6.6, 110 days agoPoll, 1,614, D +5.4, 112 days agoPoll, 2,232, D +3.3, 114 days ago2494%Likely D
Minnesota SenateOpen seatPeggy FlanaganvsMichele TafoyaD +8.8Poll, 1,079, D +4.7, 0 days agoPoll, 650, D +2.4, 3 days agoPoll, 800, D +4.8, 8 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +3.5, 8 days agoPoll, 856, D +4.4, 8 days agoPoll, 800, D +7.6, 11 days agoPoll, 622, D +1.7, 15 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +1.1, 16 days agoPoll, 833, D +4.7, 30 days agoPoll, 654, R +0.6, 31 days agoPoll, 720, D +5.7, 35 days agoPoll, 1,201, D +1.7, 43 days agoPoll, 597, D +6.3, 58 days agoPoll, 661, D +4.4, 59 days ago1495%Likely D
Louisiana SenateOpen seatJamie DavisvsJulia LetlowR +11.3Poll, 500, R +5.9, 26 days agoPoll, 518, R +5.1, 85 days ago296%Likely R
Georgia SenateIncumbent runningJon OssoffvsMike CollinsD +9.3Poll, 755, D +8.7, 0 days agoPoll, 400, D +8.0, 0 days agoPoll, 1,000, D +8.0, 0 days agoPoll, 1,090, D +9.2, 7 days agoPoll, 678, D +12.4, 22 days agoPoll, 678, D +10.7, 22 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +8.1, 22 days agoPoll, 3,303, D +9.2, 27 days agoPoll, 645, D +5.8, 29 days agoPoll, 1,019, D +8.5, 31 days agoPoll, 1,091, D +7.2, 33 days agoPoll, 800, D +9.0, 59 days agoPoll, 1,060, D +10.3, 91 days agoPoll, 1,175, D +4.8, 107 days agoPoll, 1,002, D +10.9, 110 days ago2097%Likely D
North Carolina SenateOpen seatRoy CoopervsMichael WhatleyD +12.2Poll, 400, D +13.8, 0 days agoPoll, 700, D +13.4, 4 days agoPoll, 1,091, D +9.2, 5 days agoPoll, 600, D +12.2, 7 days agoPoll, 900, D +8.4, 8 days agoPoll, 810, D +7.5, 12 days agoPoll, 642, D +11.8, 16 days agoPoll, 686, D +6.8, 23 days agoPoll, 1,047, D +6.5, 23 days agoPoll, 1,115, D +10.6, 25 days agoPoll, 857, D +8.4, 25 days agoPoll, 3,745, D +11.2, 27 days agoPoll, 1,200, D +7.0, 28 days agoPoll, 706, D +8.1, 29 days agoPoll, 885, D +11.3, 30 days agoPoll, 608, D +15.0, 30 days agoPoll, 1,084, D +7.2, 35 days agoPoll, 675, D +8.0, 42 days agoPoll, 565, D +10.2, 45 days agoPoll, 660, D +4.1, 64 days agoPoll, 600, D +13.0, 66 days agoPoll, 915, D +5.3, 70 days agoPoll, 967, D +7.2, 75 days agoPoll, 466, D +10.1, 76 days agoPoll, 1,005, D +6.9, 80 days agoPoll, 759, D +3.0, 96 days agoPoll, 601, D +6.3, 110 days ago40>99%Safe D
South Dakota SenateIncumbent runningBrian BengsvsMike RoundsR +19.9Poll, 500, R +13.7, 0 days agoPoll, 630, R +19.0, 0 days agoPoll, 400, R +1.8, 7 days agoPoll, 500, R +5.6, 18 days agoPoll, 629, R +4.2, 36 days agoPoll, 500, D +3.9, 46 days agoPoll, 500, R +1.8, 59 days agoPoll, 500, R +19.9, 98 days ago8>99%Safe R

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The forecast in brief

Every 2026 forecast, in one index

Democrats win the Senate in 83% of simulations, with 53 seats on average. Democrats win the House in 92%, with 244 seats on average. Democrats average 28 of 50 governorships after the election, are favored to control 44 of the 87 state legislative chambers on the ballot, and 120 of 146 statewide ballot measures are favored to pass. Every number comes from 2,000 simulated elections, updated October 22, 2026, 12 days before the November 3 election.

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