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2026 forecast · Connecticut Governor

Ned Lamont is all but certain to win Connecticut's governorship.

Ned Lamont vs Ryan Fazio. The model has Lamont ahead by 15.4 points, winning 99 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +15.4Polls D +17.8Updated October 22, 2026
Ned Lamont
Democrat
57.1%
819,284 projected votes
Ryan Fazio
Republican
41.6%
597,452 projected votes
99%Lamont
1%Fazio
Lamont all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Lamont wins about 99 of 100
RatingSafe D99% chance for Lamont
Model marginD +15.4Polls D +17.8
80 percent rangeD +22.9 to D +7.82,000 simulations
Projected votes1,435,542Lamont 57.1%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Connecticut Governor by county

Middlesex CountyNew Haven CountyWindham CountyNew London CountyFairfield CountyTolland CountyLitchfield CountyHartford CountyHartfordFairfieldNew HavenNew LondonMiddlesexTollandLitchfieldWindham
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hartford County: Lamont +89,968Fairfield County: Lamont +73,403New Haven County: Lamont +38,828New London County: Lamont +15,685Middlesex County: Lamont +10,575Tolland County: Lamont +4,126Litchfield County: Fazio +6,828Windham County: Fazio +3,471
Lamont +232,585 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +15.5, a 222,286 vote marginFazio +10,299 net votes from 2 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Ned LamontDemocrat · 99% to win
57.1%
Ryan FazioRepublican · 1% to win
41.6%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

1,435,542 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Ned Lamont D819,28457.1%
Ryan Fazio R597,45241.6%
Other / write-in O18,8061.3%
Total1,435,542100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +42.1: 1 simulationsD +40.6: 0 simulationsD +39.1: 1 simulationsD +37.7: 0 simulationsD +36.2: 1 simulationsD +34.7: 0 simulationsD +33.2: 4 simulationsD +31.8: 7 simulationsD +30.3: 7 simulationsD +28.8: 14 simulationsD +27.3: 26 simulationsD +25.9: 39 simulationsD +24.4: 71 simulationsD +22.9: 84 simulationsD +21.4: 114 simulationsD +20.0: 150 simulationsD +18.5: 192 simulationsD +17.0: 219 simulationsD +15.5: 188 simulationsD +14.1: 186 simulationsD +12.6: 166 simulationsD +11.1: 147 simulationsD +9.6: 125 simulationsD +8.2: 70 simulationsD +6.7: 57 simulationsD +5.2: 41 simulationsD +3.7: 37 simulationsD +2.3: 18 simulationsD +0.8: 12 simulationsR +0.7: 9 simulationsR +2.2: 3 simulationsR +3.6: 5 simulationsR +5.1: 2 simulationsR +6.6: 0 simulationsR +8.1: 0 simulationsR +9.5: 0 simulationsR +11.0: 1 simulationsR +12.5: 2 simulationsR +14.0: 0 simulationsR +15.4: 1 simulationsD +42.8R +16.2

80 percent of simulations fall between D +22.9 and D +7.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%99% Lamont1% Fazio30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Connecticut governor polling average
25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%JulAugSepOct55.7Lamont37.0Fazio
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Quinnipiac University Polling InstituteSep 14 · 1,288 LV · C18%Lamont +17.0
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 12 · 1,225 LV · C17%Lamont +20.0
Emerson CollegeOct 12 · 800 LV · Gold16%Lamont +13.0
co/efficient (R)Sep 17 · 979 LV · C+12%Lamont +7.0
Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT InsiderOct 12 · 1,000 LV · NR12%Lamont +26.6
Wesleyan SurveyLab/YouGovOct 7 · 420 LV · C11%Lamont +23.0
Every other poll together: 14%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +17.8
Emerson College/Nexstar Media800 LV3dD +13.051 to 38
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute1,225 LV3dD +20.058 to 38
Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider1,000 LV3dD +26.659.3 to 32.7
Wesleyan SurveyLab/YouGov420 LV8dD +23.057 to 34
University of New Hampshire540 LV24dD +17.055 to 38
co/efficient (R)979 LV28dD +7.048 to 41
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute1,288 LV31dD +17.055 to 38
GreatBlue Research1,000 RV37dD +14.048 to 34
University of New Hampshire809 LV52dD +15.052 to 37
Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider1,000 RV81dD +20.050 to 30
University of New Hampshire828 LV114dD +13.049 to 36

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Lamont +15.4
Chance of winning
Ned Lamont99%
Ryan Fazio1%
Simulated vote
Ned Lamont57.1%
Ryan Fazio41.6%
Other / write-in1.3%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +14.8
FundamentalsD +10.2
With pollsD +15.8
Early vote turnoutR +0.4
With early voteD +15.4

Read from 25,451 ballots cast so far in Connecticut, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

35 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Ned Lamont15
  • Rosa DeLauroU.S. Rep., CT-03source
  • Jim HimesU.S. Rep., CT-04source
  • John LarsonU.S. Rep., CT-01source
  • Joe CourtneyU.S. Rep., CT-02source
  • Jahana HayesU.S. Rep., CT-05source
  • Richard BlumenthalU.S. Senator, Connecticutsource
  • Chris MurphyU.S. Senator, Connecticutsource
  • William TongAttorney General of Connecticutsource
Ryan Fazio20
  • Vincent CandeloraConnecticut House Minority Leadersource
  • Stephen HardingConnecticut Senate Minority Leadersource
  • Betsy McCaugheyFormer Lt. Governor of New York, withdrawn CT candidatesource
  • Erin StewartFormer Mayor of New Britain, former candidatesource
  • Eric BerthelConnecticut state senator, SD-32source
  • Paul CicarellaConnecticut state senator, SD-34source
  • John KisselConnecticut state senator, SD-07source
  • Rob SampsonConnecticut state senator, SD-16source
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +19R +19Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +14.8Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +10.2With pollsaverage D +17.8D +15.8With early voteturnout so farD +15.4

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareLamontFazio
GenderMen46%51.747.0
Women54%61.037.8
Age18 to 2913%56.542.2
30 to 4421%52.846.0
45 to 6433%55.942.8
65+32%60.138.6
RaceWhite72%49.149.6
Black10%85.513.3
Latino12%68.030.8
Asian and other7%76.821.8
Race and genderWhite men33%42.256.6
White women39%54.843.9
Black men5%82.915.9
Black women5%87.811.0
Latino men6%66.132.7
Latino women6%69.829.0
All other races7%76.821.8

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

8 counties
CountyLamontFazioOtherTotalMargin
Statewide819,844597,55818,1401,435,542D +15.5
Hartford County240,329150,3616,353397,043D +23.1
Fairfield County195,758122,3551,920320,033D +23.3
New Haven County173,453134,6253,112311,190D +12.8
New London County70,62754,9422,172127,741D +12.7
Middlesex County47,35136,7761,36885,495D +12.9
Tolland County39,65835,5321,37976,569D +5.8
Litchfield County30,98137,80997769,767R +9.6
Windham County21,68725,15885947,704R +7.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.