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2026 ballot measure forecast

North Dakota Constitutional Measure No. 1

Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments

Requires future constitutional amendments, whether legislative or initiated, to win at least 60% voter approval to take effect. The forecast has Yes at 52.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 61% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureHigher bars to passUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
61%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
52.8%
80% range 39 to 66
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
52.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
52.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority to adopt. Referred by HCR 3003 (2025).
The campaign

Yes: legislative Republicans (Rep. Robin Weisz), North Dakota Farm Bureau. No organized No campaign or money found.

Also on the North Dakota ballot

Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2
Free breakfast and lunch for all public school students
37%

Constitutional Measure No. 1 by county

Adams CountyBarnes CountyBenson CountyBillings CountyBottineau CountyBowman CountyBurke CountyBurleigh CountyCass CountyCavalier CountyDickey CountyDivide CountyDunn CountyEddy CountyEmmons CountyFoster CountyGolden Valley CountyGrand Forks CountyGrant CountyGriggs CountyHettinger CountyKidder CountyLaMoure CountyLogan CountyMcHenry CountyMcIntosh CountyMcKenzie CountyMcLean CountyMercer CountyMorton CountyMountrail CountyNelson CountyOliver CountyPembina CountyPierce CountyRamsey CountyRansom CountyRenville CountyRichland CountyRolette CountySargent CountySheridan CountySioux CountySlope CountyStark CountySteele CountyStutsman CountyTowner CountyTraill CountyWalsh CountyWard CountyWells CountyWilliams CountyCassBurleighGrand ForksWardMortonStarkWilliamsStutsmanRichlandMcLeanRamseyBarnes
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Burleigh County: Yes +2,250Stark County: Yes +1,663Williams County: Yes +1,602Ward County: Yes +1,434Morton County: Yes +1,270Mercer County: Yes +678McKenzie County: Yes +670McLean County: Yes +537Stutsman County: Yes +463Emmons County: Yes +380McHenry County: Yes +335Bottineau County: Yes +322Dunn County: Yes +316Bowman County: Yes +290Wells County: Yes +255Pembina County: Yes +245Richland County: Yes +236Walsh County: Yes +234Logan County: Yes +194Grant County: Yes +193Hettinger County: Yes +192Ramsey County: Yes +191LaMoure County: Yes +184Dickey County: Yes +182McIntosh County: Yes +181Burke County: Yes +176Kidder County: Yes +172Golden Valley County: Yes +171Renville County: Yes +167Mountrail County: Yes +165Foster County: Yes +163Oliver County: Yes +159Pierce County: Yes +157Adams County: Yes +141Cavalier County: Yes +130Sheridan County: Yes +126Divide County: Yes +116Barnes County: Yes +114Billings County: Yes +102Griggs County: Yes +95Slope County: Yes +86Eddy County: Yes +65Towner County: Yes +62Traill County: Yes +46Sargent County: Yes +30Nelson County: Yes +24Ransom County: Yes +4Cass County: No +3,934Grand Forks County: No +689Rolette County: No +527Sioux County: No +146Benson County: No +47Steele County: No +6
Yes +16,968 net votes from 47 countiesStatewide Yes +5.6, a 11,619 vote marginNo +5,349 net votes from 6 counties

Projected vote

209,041 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes110,33052.8%
No98,71147.2%
Total209,041100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Cass County22,45326,38748,84046.0%
Burleigh County16,36314,11330,47653.7%
Grand Forks County8,2028,89117,09348.0%
Ward County8,2886,85415,14254.7%
Morton County5,5084,2389,74656.5%
Stark County4,9253,2628,18760.2%
Williams County4,4122,8107,22261.1%
Stutsman County3,0882,6255,71354.1%
Richland County2,6012,3654,96652.4%
McLean County2,0091,4723,48157.7%
Ramsey County1,7241,5333,25752.9%
Barnes County1,6641,5503,21451.8%
Mercer County1,8321,1542,98661.4%
McKenzie County1,7951,1252,92061.5%
Walsh County1,5061,2722,77854.2%
Traill County1,2581,2122,47050.9%
Bottineau County1,3231,0012,32456.9%
Rolette County8891,4162,30538.6%
Mountrail County1,2181,0532,27153.6%
Pembina County1,1028571,95956.3%
McHenry County1,0537181,77159.5%
Ransom County7597551,51450.1%
Dickey County8356531,48856.1%
Wells County8245691,39359.2%
Dunn County8535371,39061.4%
LaMoure County7585741,33256.9%
Sargent County6616311,29251.2%
Emmons County8264461,27264.9%
Cavalier County6995691,26855.1%
Nelson County6256011,22651.0%
Pierce County6875301,21756.5%
Benson County5766231,19948.0%
Bowman County7064161,12262.9%
Foster County5974341,03157.9%
Grant County54935690560.7%
McIntosh County53935889760.1%
Kidder County52735588259.8%
Hettinger County51832684461.4%
Divide County46935382257.1%
Griggs County45536081555.8%
Adams County45631577159.1%
Eddy County41234775954.3%
Renville County45628974561.2%
Towner County38232070254.4%
Logan County43924568464.2%
Oliver County42126268361.6%
Burke County41724165863.4%
Steele County31832464249.5%
Golden Valley County40623564163.3%
Sioux County19434053436.3%
Sheridan County31518950462.5%
Billings County27116944061.6%
Slope County1678124867.3%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Measure No. 1 is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: valleynewslive.com, ndfb.org, northdakotamonitor.com, sos.nd.gov. All measures.