SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 forecast · Alabama 3rd

Mike Rogers is all but certain to win Alabama's 3rd District.

Lee McInnis vs Mike Rogers. The model has Rogers ahead by 45.8 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe RModel R +45.8Updated October 22, 2026
Lee McInnis
Democrat
27.1%
66,303 projected votes
Mike Rogers
Republican
72.9%
178,489 projected votes
100%Rogers
0%McInnis
Rogers all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Rogers wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe R100% chance for Rogers
Model marginR +45.8No polls in the race
80 percent rangeR +39.0 to R +52.12,000 simulations
Projected votes244,792Rogers 72.9%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Alabama districts

7 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Lee McInnisDemocrat · 0% to win
27.1%
Mike RogersRepublican · 100% to win
72.9%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

244,792 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Mike Rogers R178,48972.9%
Lee McInnis D66,30327.1%
Total244,792100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%0% McInnis100% Rogers15 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Alabama governor polling average
34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%AugSepOct40.0Jones51.2Tuberville
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily NewsOct 17 · 500 LV · Gold98%Tuberville +11.2
Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R)Sep 25 · 800 RV · C+1.6%Tuberville +13.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Rogers +45.8
Chance of winning
Lee McInnis0%
Mike Rogers100%
Simulated vote
Lee McInnis27.1%
Mike Rogers72.9%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +47.0
FundamentalsR +45.9
With pollsR +45.7
Early vote turnoutR +0.1
With early voteR +45.8

Alabama has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +56R +56Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +47.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +45.9With pollsno pollsR +45.7With early voteturnout so farR +45.8
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.