Jim Risch is all but certain to win Idaho's Senate seat.
Todd Achilles vs Jim Risch. The model has Risch ahead by 22.5 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
725,731 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch R | 415,020 | 57.2% |
| Todd Achilles IND | 251,854 | 34.7% |
| Natalie Fleming I | 44,705 | 6.2% |
| Matt Loesby L | 14,224 | 2.0% |
| Total | 725,731 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +15.5 and R +29.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +22.3 | |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 0d | R +27.027 to 54 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 15d | R +25.024 to 49 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 700 RV | 29d | D +9.048 to 39 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 63d | R +34.018 to 52 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 608 LV | 69d | D +0.534 to 33.5 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,213 LV | 77d | R +24.021 to 45 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 774 RV | 136d | R +4.036 to 40 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 28,945 ballots cast so far in Idaho, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
15 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
- Mike CrapoU.S. senator from Idahosource
- Russ FulcherU.S. representative, ID-01source
- Brad LittleGovernor of Idahosource
- Kelly AnthonIdaho Senate president pro temporesource
- Mike MoyleSpeaker of the Idaho Housesource
- Brent ReganIdaho conservative leadersource
- Mike LeeU.S. senator from Utahsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Achilles | Risch |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 31.5 | 60.4 |
| Women | 51% | 40.0 | 51.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 38.8 | 52.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 35.2 | 56.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 34.0 | 58.0 |
| 65+ | 33% | 36.9 | 55.2 |
| RaceWhite | 86% | 33.1 | 58.9 |
| Latino | 8% | 47.7 | 43.9 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 60.7 | 29.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 27.8 | 64.3 |
| White women | 45% | 38.0 | 53.9 |
| Latino men | 4% | 45.0 | 46.3 |
| Latino women | 4% | 50.7 | 41.1 |
| All other races | 5% | 60.7 | 29.9 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
44 counties| County | Achilles | Risch | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 251,351 | 415,426 | 58,954 | 725,731 | R +22.6 |
| Ada County | 108,014 | 94,431 | 14,073 | 216,518 | D +6.5 |
| Canyon County | 22,748 | 48,577 | 6,796 | 78,121 | R +33.0 |
| Kootenai County | 19,431 | 51,468 | 5,749 | 76,648 | R +41.9 |
| Bonneville County | 12,083 | 27,371 | 4,926 | 44,380 | R +34.4 |
| Bannock County | 12,957 | 15,997 | 2,933 | 31,887 | R +9.4 |
| Twin Falls County | 7,991 | 19,137 | 3,115 | 30,243 | R +36.9 |
| Bonner County | 6,680 | 15,871 | 1,593 | 24,144 | R +38.1 |
| Latah County | 9,182 | 7,073 | 1,075 | 17,330 | D +12.3 |
| Nez Perce County | 5,717 | 9,605 | 1,136 | 16,458 | R +23.4 |
| Bingham County | 3,360 | 11,200 | 1,800 | 16,360 | R +47.9 |
| Jefferson County | 1,545 | 8,825 | 1,481 | 11,851 | R +61.4 |
| Madison County | 2,544 | 7,587 | 1,664 | 11,795 | R +42.8 |
| Blaine County | 7,697 | 2,910 | 511 | 11,118 | D +43.3 |
| Payette County | 1,921 | 6,894 | 736 | 9,551 | R +51.9 |
| Elmore County | 2,405 | 5,686 | 791 | 8,882 | R +36.9 |
| Gem County | 1,786 | 6,306 | 752 | 8,844 | R +51.0 |
| Idaho County | 1,413 | 6,447 | 547 | 8,407 | R +59.7 |
| Cassia County | 1,192 | 5,617 | 841 | 7,650 | R +57.7 |
| Jerome County | 1,579 | 4,258 | 620 | 6,457 | R +41.4 |
| Minidoka County | 1,259 | 4,446 | 720 | 6,425 | R +49.5 |
| Valley County | 2,584 | 3,053 | 309 | 5,946 | R +7.5 |
| Boundary County | 973 | 4,483 | 455 | 5,911 | R +59.4 |
| Franklin County | 563 | 4,459 | 522 | 5,544 | R +70.0 |
| Fremont County | 862 | 3,911 | 632 | 5,405 | R +56.2 |
| Teton County | 2,856 | 1,987 | 515 | 5,358 | D +16.4 |
| Shoshone County | 1,576 | 3,152 | 428 | 5,156 | R +30.5 |
| Gooding County | 1,110 | 3,445 | 462 | 5,017 | R +46.2 |
| Washington County | 972 | 3,359 | 321 | 4,652 | R +51.0 |
| Benewah County | 915 | 2,950 | 300 | 4,165 | R +48.6 |
| Owyhee County | 783 | 3,007 | 334 | 4,124 | R +53.6 |
| Lemhi County | 899 | 2,810 | 385 | 4,094 | R +46.4 |
| Boise County | 1,059 | 2,599 | 348 | 4,006 | R +38.3 |
| Clearwater County | 800 | 2,743 | 231 | 3,774 | R +51.1 |
| Bear Lake County | 561 | 1,936 | 232 | 2,729 | R +49.9 |
| Caribou County | 401 | 2,046 | 266 | 2,713 | R +60.4 |
| Power County | 706 | 1,559 | 211 | 2,476 | R +33.8 |
| Adams County | 530 | 1,521 | 215 | 2,266 | R +43.5 |
| Custer County | 489 | 1,517 | 256 | 2,262 | R +45.0 |
| Oneida County | 229 | 1,537 | 185 | 1,951 | R +66.5 |
| Lincoln County | 358 | 1,089 | 160 | 1,607 | R +44.4 |
| Lewis County | 280 | 1,170 | 120 | 1,570 | R +56.0 |
| Butte County | 180 | 849 | 127 | 1,156 | R +57.8 |
| Camas County | 123 | 353 | 48 | 524 | R +42.8 |
| Clark County | 38 | 185 | 33 | 256 | R +56.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.