2026 state legislative forecast

Hawaii House forecast

Democrats win control of the Hawaii House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 51 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 51On the ballot 51Hawaii Senate All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

47 to 48

Median 48 · 26 for a majority

Favored to flip

5to D0to R

After 2024: 41 D, 8 R

Environment

D +15.6

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Hawaii House map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 48 D to 3 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every House district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
42	Diamond Garcia 2024	Anthony Makana Paris vs Diamond Garcia	R +6.3	D +5.7	80%	5,652	5,040	10,855	Lean D
40	Julie Reyes Oda 2024	Rose Martinez vs Julie Reyes Oda	R +8.7	D +8.5	90%	5,708	4,810	10,678	Likely D
45	Chris Muraoka 2024	Kalehua Kaopua vs Chris Muraoka	R +10.4	D +8.8	91%	4,229	3,545	7,893	Likely D

Projected Hawaii House vote

51 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	459,361	76.6%
Republicans	135,857	22.6%
Independents and others	4,801	0.8%
Total	600,022	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.