2026 forecast · Nevada Attorney General
Nicole Cannizzaro is very likely to win Nevada's attorney general race.
Nicole Cannizzaro vs Adriana Guzmán Fralick, an open seat. The model has Cannizzaro ahead by 6.7 points, with a 86 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +6.7Polls D +9.8Updated October 22, 2026
Nicole Cannizzaro
Democrat
50.4%
621,217 projected votes
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Republican
43.7%
538,242 projected votes
86%Cannizzaro
14%Fralick
Cannizzaro very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Cannizzaro wins about 86 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Cannizzaro +143,320 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide D +6.7, a 82,976 vote marginFralick +60,344 net votes from 15 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,232,832 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Nicole Cannizzaro D | 621,217 | 50.4% |
| Adriana Guzmán Fralick R | 538,242 | 43.7% |
| Other candidates | 73,372 | 6.0% |
| Total | 1,232,832 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
17 counties| County | Cannizzaro | Fralick | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 621,218 | 538,242 | 73,372 | 1,232,832 | D +6.7 |
| Clark County | 465,455 | 333,362 | 50,551 | 849,368 | D +15.6 |
| Washoe County | 109,995 | 98,768 | 13,210 | 221,973 | D +5.1 |
| Douglas County | 9,419 | 18,940 | 1,795 | 30,154 | R +31.6 |
| Lyon County | 7,015 | 18,957 | 1,644 | 27,616 | R +43.2 |
| Carson City | 11,268 | 13,667 | 1,578 | 26,513 | R +9.1 |
| Nye County | 6,925 | 15,168 | 1,398 | 23,491 | R +35.1 |
| Elko County | 3,759 | 14,157 | 1,134 | 19,050 | R +54.6 |
| Churchill County | 2,478 | 8,212 | 676 | 11,366 | R +50.5 |
| Humboldt County | 1,419 | 5,063 | 410 | 6,892 | R +52.9 |
| White Pine County | 758 | 2,818 | 226 | 3,802 | R +54.2 |
| Storey County | 738 | 1,658 | 151 | 2,547 | R +36.1 |
| Lander County | 406 | 1,840 | 142 | 2,388 | R +60.0 |
| Lincoln County | 286 | 1,835 | 134 | 2,255 | R +68.7 |
| Pershing County | 481 | 1,530 | 127 | 2,138 | R +49.1 |
| Mineral County | 686 | 1,207 | 120 | 2,013 | R +25.9 |
| Eureka County | 70 | 713 | 50 | 833 | R +77.1 |
| Esmeralda County | 60 | 347 | 26 | 433 | R +66.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +14.8 and R +1.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +3.0 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +14.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +6.7 |
| With polls, 15% weight | D +6.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +14.8 and R +1.3.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Cannizzaro | Fralick | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse) | 708 LV | 2026-09-26 | 45 | 37 | D +8.0 |