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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

Alaska House forecast

Democrats win control of the Alaska House in 80% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 40 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Likely DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 40On the ballot 40Alaska SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
80%D7%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
16 to 18
Median 17 ยท 21 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 15 D, 21 R, 4 other
Environment
D +9.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Alaska House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats 95%District 3: Democrats >99%District 4: Democrats >99%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats 98%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats 88%District 12: Democrats 96%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats 86%District 16: Democrats >99%District 17: Democrats >99%District 18: Democrats 58%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats 98%District 23: Democrats 3%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats 98%District 32: Democrats <1%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats <1%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats <1%District 37: Democrats >99%District 38: Democrats >99%District 39: Democrats >99%District 40: Democrats >99%1235303637383940
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 17 D to 19 R
District 3: Democrats win >99%District 4: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 16: Democrats win >99%District 17: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 37: Democrats win >99%District 38: Democrats win >99%District 39: Democrats win >99%District 40: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win 98%District 9: Democrats win 98%District 22: Democrats win 98%District 12: Democrats win 96%District 2: Democrats win 95%District 11: Democrats win 88%District 15: Democrats win 86%District 18: Democrats win 58%District 23: Democrats win 3%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 36: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
21 for a majority111621

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
18David Nelson 2024Cliff Groh vs Dan SagerR +15.8D +1.258%1,9781,9313,968Toss up
15Mia Costello 2024Denny Wells vs Mia CostelloR +1.6D +7.086%4,0553,5217,691Likely D
11Julie Coulombe 2024Danni M. Hall vs Julie CoulombeR +1.5D +8.088%4,3283,6898,139Likely D
2Rebecca Himschoot 2024Rebecca Himschoot (I) vs Kenny "Kenny Karl" SkaflestadD +1.5I +10.995% I4,449 I3,4757,925Lean I
12Calvin R Schrage 2024Calvin R. Schrage (I) vs Jieun "Jini" McDonaldD +2.0I +11.496% I3,960 I3,0657,025Lean I

Projected Alaska House vote

40 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats90,59733.2%
Republicans144,55052.9%
Independents and others37,92913.9%
Total273,077100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.