2026 ballot measure forecast
Tennessee Amendment 1
Remove right to bail for specified serious offenses
Removes the constitutional right to bail for defendants charged with specified serious felonies when proof is evident, letting judges deny pretrial release. The forecast has Yes at 78.1 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
78.1%80% range 68 to 86
Needs
53.2%a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580- History and structure
- 78.1% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 78.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.
The campaign
Sponsored by House Speaker Cameron Sexton R; Tennessee Association of Professional Bail Agents organizing opposition; no money reported.
Also on the Tennessee ballot
Amendment 2
Ban a state property tax
98%
Amendment 3
Marsy's Law crime victims' rights
95%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,224,179 net votes from 95 countiesStatewide Yes +56.2, a 1,224,179 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,176,533 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,700,356 | 78.1% |
| No | 476,177 | 21.9% |
| Total | 2,176,533 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby County | 179,683 | 78,710 | 258,393 | 69.5% |
| Davidson County | 153,597 | 68,563 | 222,160 | 69.1% |
| Knox County | 122,837 | 37,084 | 159,921 | 76.8% |
| Hamilton County | 94,499 | 30,114 | 124,613 | 75.8% |
| Williamson County | 78,858 | 21,263 | 100,121 | 78.8% |
| Rutherford County | 76,648 | 22,704 | 99,352 | 77.1% |
| Sumner County | 52,742 | 13,031 | 65,773 | 80.2% |
| Montgomery County | 42,240 | 12,873 | 55,113 | 76.6% |
| Wilson County | 43,828 | 11,012 | 54,840 | 79.9% |
| Sullivan County | 42,874 | 9,212 | 52,086 | 82.3% |
| Blount County | 38,658 | 8,990 | 47,648 | 81.1% |
| Washington County | 34,919 | 8,822 | 43,741 | 79.8% |
| Maury County | 29,290 | 7,040 | 36,330 | 80.6% |
| Bradley County | 27,222 | 5,576 | 32,798 | 83.0% |
| Madison County | 22,891 | 6,993 | 29,884 | 76.6% |
| Sevier County | 24,302 | 4,839 | 29,141 | 83.4% |
| Anderson County | 20,223 | 5,296 | 25,519 | 79.2% |
| Putnam County | 20,312 | 4,742 | 25,054 | 81.1% |
| Cumberland County | 20,230 | 4,155 | 24,385 | 83.0% |
| Robertson County | 18,827 | 4,237 | 23,064 | 81.6% |
| Loudon County | 18,552 | 4,076 | 22,628 | 82.0% |
| Greene County | 18,237 | 3,404 | 21,641 | 84.3% |
| Roane County | 15,618 | 3,370 | 18,988 | 82.3% |
| Tipton County | 15,395 | 3,391 | 18,786 | 81.9% |
| Hawkins County | 15,119 | 2,704 | 17,823 | 84.8% |
| Carter County | 14,877 | 2,883 | 17,760 | 83.8% |
| Jefferson County | 14,464 | 2,766 | 17,230 | 83.9% |
| Coffee County | 14,170 | 3,035 | 17,205 | 82.4% |
| Hamblen County | 14,238 | 2,921 | 17,159 | 83.0% |
| Dickson County | 13,967 | 3,104 | 17,071 | 81.8% |
| Fayette County | 13,398 | 3,296 | 16,694 | 80.3% |
| McMinn County | 13,812 | 2,642 | 16,454 | 83.9% |
| Gibson County | 12,591 | 2,802 | 15,393 | 81.8% |
| Monroe County | 12,631 | 2,328 | 14,959 | 84.4% |
| Franklin County | 11,525 | 2,530 | 14,055 | 82.0% |
| Cheatham County | 11,336 | 2,684 | 14,020 | 80.9% |
| Bedford County | 11,462 | 2,376 | 13,838 | 82.8% |
| Lawrence County | 11,131 | 1,983 | 13,114 | 84.9% |
| Warren County | 9,497 | 2,013 | 11,510 | 82.5% |
| Lincoln County | 9,567 | 1,819 | 11,386 | 84.0% |
| Marshall County | 9,146 | 1,929 | 11,075 | 82.6% |
| Cocke County | 9,031 | 1,628 | 10,659 | 84.7% |
| Dyer County | 8,794 | 1,742 | 10,536 | 83.5% |
| Henry County | 8,620 | 1,843 | 10,463 | 82.4% |
| Campbell County | 8,592 | 1,520 | 10,112 | 85.0% |
| Rhea County | 8,440 | 1,550 | 9,990 | 84.5% |
| Weakley County | 8,243 | 1,701 | 9,944 | 82.9% |
| Giles County | 7,848 | 1,687 | 9,535 | 82.3% |
| Marion County | 7,826 | 1,669 | 9,495 | 82.4% |
| Obion County | 7,801 | 1,480 | 9,281 | 84.1% |
| Claiborne County | 7,662 | 1,343 | 9,005 | 85.1% |
| White County | 7,438 | 1,375 | 8,813 | 84.4% |
| Carroll County | 7,213 | 1,430 | 8,643 | 83.5% |
| Henderson County | 7,038 | 1,281 | 8,319 | 84.6% |
| Hardin County | 7,026 | 1,213 | 8,239 | 85.3% |
| McNairy County | 6,935 | 1,247 | 8,182 | 84.8% |
| Overton County | 6,306 | 1,206 | 7,512 | 83.9% |
| Hickman County | 6,039 | 1,206 | 7,245 | 83.4% |
| Grainger County | 6,125 | 1,013 | 7,138 | 85.8% |
| Hardeman County | 5,515 | 1,603 | 7,118 | 77.5% |
| Fentress County | 5,678 | 902 | 6,580 | 86.3% |
| Macon County | 5,597 | 910 | 6,507 | 86.0% |
| DeKalb County | 5,395 | 1,052 | 6,447 | 83.7% |
| Smith County | 5,407 | 1,024 | 6,431 | 84.1% |
| Lauderdale County | 4,998 | 1,295 | 6,293 | 79.4% |
| Johnson County | 5,166 | 917 | 6,083 | 84.9% |
| Unicoi County | 5,074 | 998 | 6,072 | 83.6% |
| Morgan County | 5,208 | 846 | 6,054 | 86.0% |
| Polk County | 5,034 | 910 | 5,944 | 84.7% |
| Humphreys County | 4,677 | 991 | 5,668 | 82.5% |
| Union County | 4,757 | 820 | 5,577 | 85.3% |
| Chester County | 4,611 | 871 | 5,482 | 84.1% |
| Sequatchie County | 4,584 | 850 | 5,434 | 84.4% |
| Scott County | 4,532 | 663 | 5,195 | 87.2% |
| Benton County | 4,222 | 822 | 5,044 | 83.7% |
| Haywood County | 3,702 | 1,317 | 5,019 | 73.8% |
| Wayne County | 4,086 | 634 | 4,720 | 86.6% |
| Stewart County | 3,948 | 757 | 4,705 | 83.9% |
| Cannon County | 3,961 | 737 | 4,698 | 84.3% |
| Bledsoe County | 3,785 | 660 | 4,445 | 85.2% |
| Grundy County | 3,657 | 650 | 4,307 | 84.9% |
| Meigs County | 3,505 | 640 | 4,145 | 84.6% |
| Crockett County | 3,408 | 701 | 4,109 | 82.9% |
| Lewis County | 3,433 | 645 | 4,078 | 84.2% |
| Decatur County | 3,328 | 592 | 3,920 | 84.9% |
| Jackson County | 3,259 | 638 | 3,897 | 83.6% |
| Trousdale County | 2,384 | 489 | 2,873 | 83.0% |
| Houston County | 2,311 | 477 | 2,788 | 82.9% |
| Perry County | 2,141 | 380 | 2,521 | 84.9% |
| Moore County | 2,128 | 377 | 2,505 | 85.0% |
| Clay County | 2,026 | 375 | 2,401 | 84.4% |
| Van Buren County | 1,897 | 348 | 2,245 | 84.5% |
| Pickett County | 1,767 | 329 | 2,096 | 84.3% |
| Hancock County | 1,516 | 238 | 1,754 | 86.4% |
| Lake County | 1,269 | 273 | 1,542 | 82.3% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 1 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Tennessee's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, tennesseelookout.com, fox17.com. All measures.