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2026 ballot measure forecast

Washington Initiative Measure No. IL26-001

Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement

Fully reinstates the Parents' Bill of Rights giving parents access to student academic, medical and counseling records and notifications, repealing 2025 changes. The forecast has Yes at 45.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 30% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated statuteEducationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
30%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
45.1%
80% range 32 to 58
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
45.1% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
45.1% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Let's Go Washington initiative to the Legislature; Legislature did not act; WEA and LGBTQ advocates oppose.

Also on the Washington ballot

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638
Girls' sports limited to biological females
71%
Initiative Measure No. IP26-645
Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes
11%

Initiative Measure No. IL26-001 by county

Adams CountyAsotin CountyBenton CountyChelan CountyClallam CountyClark CountyColumbia CountyCowlitz CountyDouglas CountyFerry CountyFranklin CountyGarfield CountyGrant CountyGrays Harbor CountyIsland CountyJefferson CountyKing CountyKitsap CountyKittitas CountyKlickitat CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMason CountyOkanogan CountyPacific CountyPend Oreille CountyPierce CountySan Juan CountySkagit CountySkamania CountySnohomish CountySpokane CountyStevens CountyThurston CountyWahkiakum CountyWalla Walla CountyWhatcom CountyWhitman CountyYakima CountyKingPierceSnohomishSpokaneClarkThurstonKitsapWhatcomBentonYakimaSkagitCowlitz
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Benton County: Yes +5,006Lewis County: Yes +3,807Stevens County: Yes +3,429Grant County: Yes +3,424Cowlitz County: Yes +2,613Yakima County: Yes +2,514Franklin County: Yes +1,570Douglas County: Yes +1,366Spokane County: Yes +1,210Lincoln County: Yes +1,078Pend Oreille County: Yes +893Kittitas County: Yes +827Chelan County: Yes +712Asotin County: Yes +699Okanogan County: Yes +664Adams County: Yes +609Walla Walla County: Yes +385Ferry County: Yes +352Columbia County: Yes +318Grays Harbor County: Yes +263Klickitat County: Yes +232Garfield County: Yes +202Skamania County: Yes +163Wahkiakum County: Yes +131King County: No +194,485Snohomish County: No +25,702Pierce County: No +16,725Whatcom County: No +11,308Thurston County: No +10,825Kitsap County: No +10,739Clark County: No +7,609Jefferson County: No +3,837Island County: No +2,999Skagit County: No +2,400San Juan County: No +2,387Clallam County: No +1,555Whitman County: No +705Pacific County: No +122Mason County: No +97
Yes +32,467 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide No +9.9, a 259,028 vote marginNo +291,495 net votes from 15 counties

Projected vote

2,625,044 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,183,00845.1%
No1,442,03654.9%
Total2,625,044100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
King County295,361489,846785,20737.6%
Pierce County134,326151,051285,37747.1%
Snohomish County124,827150,529275,35645.3%
Spokane County94,44493,234187,67850.3%
Clark County84,98592,594177,57947.9%
Thurston County48,91859,743108,66145.0%
Kitsap County47,32358,062105,38544.9%
Whatcom County41,95553,26395,21844.1%
Benton County34,97929,97364,95253.9%
Yakima County28,66926,15554,82452.3%
Skagit County22,53024,93047,46047.5%
Cowlitz County20,26517,65237,91753.4%
Island County16,60419,60336,20745.9%
Clallam County15,94917,50433,45347.7%
Lewis County16,89713,09029,98756.3%
Chelan County14,71113,99928,71051.2%
Grays Harbor County12,35112,08824,43950.5%
Mason County12,16712,26424,43149.8%
Grant County13,2299,80523,03457.4%
Walla Walla County10,2209,83520,05551.0%
Franklin County10,5819,01119,59254.0%
Stevens County11,2777,84819,12559.0%
Jefferson County7,05510,89217,94739.3%
Kittitas County9,2858,45817,74352.3%
Okanogan County7,2296,56513,79452.4%
Whitman County6,5207,22513,74547.4%
Douglas County7,5516,18513,73655.0%
Pacific County4,8084,9309,73849.4%
San Juan County3,6276,0149,64137.6%
Klickitat County4,8404,6089,44851.2%
Asotin County4,0823,3837,46554.7%
Pend Oreille County3,2932,4005,69357.8%
Lincoln County3,1102,0325,14260.5%
Skamania County2,6282,4655,09351.6%
Adams County2,0501,4413,49158.7%
Ferry County1,5651,2132,77856.3%
Wahkiakum County1,1331,0022,13553.1%
Columbia County1,0567381,79458.9%
Garfield County6084061,01460.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiative Measure No. IL26-001 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theurbanist.org, kxly.com. All measures.