2026 forecast · Ohio Auditor
Annette Blackwell is slightly favored to win Ohio's auditor race.
Annette Blackwell vs Frank LaRose, an open seat. The model has Blackwell ahead by 2.5 points, with a 67 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +2.5Updated October 22, 2026
Annette Blackwell
Democrat
49.8%
2,374,736 projected votes
Frank LaRose
Republican
47.3%
2,256,578 projected votes
67%Blackwell
33%LaRose
Blackwell favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Blackwell wins about 67 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Blackwell +728,848 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide D +2.5, a 118,156 vote marginLaRose +610,692 net votes from 77 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Annette Blackwell D | 2,374,736 | 49.8% |
| Frank LaRose R | 2,256,578 | 47.3% |
| Other candidates | 140,367 | 2.9% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Blackwell | LaRose | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,374,735 | 2,256,579 | 140,366 | 4,771,680 | D +2.5 |
| Franklin County | 362,718 | 130,399 | 14,945 | 508,062 | D +45.7 |
| Cuyahoga County | 363,973 | 118,502 | 14,623 | 497,098 | D +49.4 |
| Hamilton County | 218,788 | 119,430 | 10,250 | 348,468 | D +28.5 |
| Summit County | 138,378 | 83,178 | 6,715 | 228,271 | D +24.2 |
| Montgomery County | 115,371 | 92,211 | 6,292 | 213,874 | D +10.8 |
| Lucas County | 99,601 | 54,687 | 4,676 | 158,964 | D +28.3 |
| Stark County | 66,762 | 80,565 | 4,465 | 151,792 | R +9.1 |
| Butler County | 59,313 | 86,218 | 4,411 | 149,942 | R +17.9 |
| Lorain County | 67,867 | 57,563 | 3,802 | 129,232 | D +8.0 |
| Warren County | 42,383 | 67,604 | 3,333 | 113,320 | R +22.3 |
| Delaware County | 53,971 | 52,219 | 3,218 | 109,408 | D +1.6 |
| Lake County | 48,829 | 53,310 | 3,095 | 105,234 | R +4.3 |
| Mahoning County | 50,831 | 41,755 | 2,806 | 95,392 | D +9.5 |
| Clermont County | 30,686 | 57,967 | 2,687 | 91,340 | R +29.9 |
| Medina County | 37,462 | 46,549 | 2,547 | 86,558 | R +10.5 |
| Trumbull County | 39,134 | 39,414 | 2,380 | 80,928 | R +0.3 |
| Licking County | 29,383 | 44,305 | 2,233 | 75,921 | R +19.6 |
| Greene County | 30,825 | 41,937 | 2,205 | 74,967 | R +14.8 |
| Portage County | 33,192 | 33,779 | 2,031 | 69,002 | R +0.8 |
| Fairfield County | 28,121 | 37,855 | 2,000 | 67,976 | R +14.3 |
| Wood County | 26,631 | 27,165 | 1,630 | 55,426 | R +1.0 |
| Clark County | 21,175 | 28,271 | 1,498 | 50,944 | R +13.9 |
| Richland County | 15,156 | 31,450 | 1,412 | 48,018 | R +33.9 |
| Miami County | 13,780 | 32,134 | 1,392 | 47,306 | R +38.8 |
| Geauga County | 19,122 | 25,637 | 1,357 | 46,116 | R +14.1 |
| Wayne County | 15,060 | 27,274 | 1,283 | 43,617 | R +28.0 |
| Columbiana County | 12,228 | 26,036 | 1,160 | 39,424 | R +35.0 |
| Allen County | 11,178 | 25,326 | 1,106 | 37,610 | R +37.6 |
| Ashtabula County | 15,035 | 19,189 | 1,038 | 35,262 | R +11.8 |
| Tuscarawas County | 11,986 | 21,604 | 1,018 | 34,608 | R +27.8 |
| Erie County | 15,947 | 15,640 | 957 | 32,544 | D +0.9 |
| Muskingum County | 10,304 | 20,373 | 929 | 31,606 | R +31.9 |
| Hancock County | 9,874 | 20,066 | 907 | 30,847 | R +33.0 |
| Union County | 10,488 | 17,901 | 860 | 29,249 | R +25.3 |
| Ross County | 9,782 | 16,127 | 785 | 26,694 | R +23.8 |
| Knox County | 7,532 | 17,727 | 765 | 26,024 | R +39.2 |
| Jefferson County | 9,095 | 15,933 | 758 | 25,786 | R +26.5 |
| Belmont County | 8,801 | 16,096 | 755 | 25,652 | R +28.4 |
| Washington County | 8,476 | 15,989 | 742 | 25,207 | R +29.8 |
| Scioto County | 8,348 | 16,089 | 741 | 25,178 | R +30.7 |
| Sandusky County | 9,150 | 14,103 | 705 | 23,958 | R +20.7 |
| Pickaway County | 6,974 | 15,511 | 681 | 23,166 | R +36.9 |
| Athens County | 14,568 | 7,581 | 671 | 22,820 | D +30.6 |
| Marion County | 7,450 | 14,341 | 661 | 22,452 | R +30.7 |
| Darke County | 3,833 | 17,179 | 638 | 21,650 | R +61.6 |
| Huron County | 6,732 | 13,992 | 628 | 21,352 | R +34.0 |
| Ashland County | 5,545 | 14,944 | 621 | 21,110 | R +44.5 |
| Lawrence County | 6,458 | 13,665 | 610 | 20,733 | R +34.8 |
| Seneca County | 7,170 | 12,844 | 606 | 20,620 | R +27.5 |
| Auglaize County | 3,827 | 16,107 | 604 | 20,538 | R +59.8 |
| Shelby County | 3,622 | 16,016 | 596 | 20,234 | R +61.3 |
| Ottawa County | 8,391 | 10,858 | 583 | 19,832 | R +12.4 |
| Mercer County | 3,301 | 15,257 | 562 | 19,120 | R +62.5 |
| Logan County | 4,152 | 13,875 | 545 | 18,572 | R +52.4 |
| Fulton County | 5,659 | 11,753 | 527 | 17,939 | R +34.0 |
| Preble County | 3,914 | 12,928 | 510 | 17,352 | R +52.0 |
| Madison County | 5,394 | 10,846 | 492 | 16,732 | R +32.6 |
| Brown County | 4,145 | 11,991 | 488 | 16,624 | R +47.2 |
| Crawford County | 4,228 | 11,673 | 482 | 16,383 | R +45.5 |
| Clinton County | 4,172 | 11,653 | 479 | 16,304 | R +45.9 |
| Putnam County | 2,599 | 13,182 | 479 | 16,260 | R +65.1 |
| Champaign County | 4,677 | 10,995 | 475 | 16,147 | R +39.1 |
| Highland County | 3,387 | 11,727 | 458 | 15,572 | R +53.6 |
| Defiance County | 4,758 | 10,014 | 448 | 15,220 | R +34.5 |
| Morrow County | 3,892 | 10,566 | 438 | 14,896 | R +44.8 |
| Williams County | 3,840 | 10,232 | 427 | 14,499 | R +44.1 |
| Guernsey County | 4,016 | 9,565 | 411 | 13,992 | R +39.7 |
| Perry County | 4,015 | 9,046 | 396 | 13,457 | R +37.4 |
| Coshocton County | 3,567 | 9,221 | 387 | 13,175 | R +42.9 |
| Henry County | 3,001 | 8,320 | 343 | 11,664 | R +45.6 |
| Van Wert County | 2,512 | 8,672 | 339 | 11,523 | R +53.5 |
| Carroll County | 3,090 | 7,712 | 328 | 11,130 | R +41.5 |
| Jackson County | 2,963 | 7,710 | 323 | 10,996 | R +43.2 |
| Hocking County | 3,759 | 6,629 | 315 | 10,703 | R +26.8 |
| Holmes County | 1,676 | 8,635 | 313 | 10,624 | R +65.5 |
| Hardin County | 2,753 | 7,516 | 311 | 10,580 | R +45.0 |
| Gallia County | 2,653 | 7,591 | 310 | 10,554 | R +46.8 |
| Adams County | 2,194 | 7,486 | 294 | 9,974 | R +53.1 |
| Fayette County | 2,341 | 7,337 | 294 | 9,972 | R +50.1 |
| Pike County | 2,910 | 6,247 | 279 | 9,436 | R +35.4 |
| Wyandot County | 2,439 | 6,332 | 267 | 9,038 | R +43.1 |
| Meigs County | 2,285 | 5,828 | 246 | 8,359 | R +42.4 |
| Paulding County | 1,822 | 5,290 | 216 | 7,328 | R +47.3 |
| Harrison County | 1,654 | 3,862 | 168 | 5,684 | R +38.8 |
| Morgan County | 1,520 | 3,731 | 160 | 5,411 | R +40.9 |
| Monroe County | 1,605 | 3,617 | 158 | 5,380 | R +37.4 |
| Noble County | 1,255 | 3,759 | 152 | 5,166 | R +48.5 |
| Vinton County | 1,281 | 3,166 | 135 | 4,582 | R +41.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.8 and R +4.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +2.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.5 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.8 and R +4.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Blackwell | LaRose | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||