2026 forecast · Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner
Bob Sullivan is all but certain to win Oklahoma's insurance commissioner race.
Craig MacIntyre vs Bob Sullivan, an open seat. The model has Sullivan ahead by 22.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +22.3Updated October 22, 2026
Craig MacIntyre
Democrat
38.1%
498,686 projected votes
Bob Sullivan
Republican
60.4%
791,405 projected votes
100%Sullivan
0%MacIntyre
Sullivan all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Sullivan wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
MacIntyre +33,695 net votes from 1 countiesStatewide R +22.3, a 292,726 vote marginSullivan +326,421 net votes from 76 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,310,145 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Bob Sullivan R | 791,405 | 60.4% |
| Craig MacIntyre D | 498,686 | 38.1% |
| Other candidates | 20,053 | 1.5% |
| Total | 1,310,145 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
77 counties| County | MacIntyre | Sullivan | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 498,686 | 791,412 | 20,044 | 1,310,142 | R +22.3 |
| Oklahoma County | 139,627 | 105,932 | 3,817 | 249,376 | D +13.5 |
| Tulsa County | 104,489 | 110,774 | 3,346 | 218,609 | R +2.9 |
| Cleveland County | 49,857 | 52,123 | 1,586 | 103,566 | R +2.2 |
| Canadian County | 20,524 | 36,834 | 892 | 58,250 | R +28.0 |
| Rogers County | 9,647 | 27,904 | 583 | 38,134 | R +47.9 |
| Wagoner County | 8,515 | 22,095 | 475 | 31,085 | R +43.7 |
| Comanche County | 12,597 | 16,440 | 451 | 29,488 | R +13.0 |
| Payne County | 11,324 | 14,400 | 400 | 26,124 | R +11.8 |
| Creek County | 6,368 | 18,535 | 387 | 25,290 | R +48.1 |
| Pottawatomie County | 7,098 | 16,153 | 361 | 23,612 | R +38.4 |
| Grady County | 4,704 | 15,278 | 310 | 20,292 | R +52.1 |
| Muskogee County | 7,084 | 12,819 | 310 | 20,213 | R +28.4 |
| Logan County | 5,744 | 13,471 | 298 | 19,513 | R +39.6 |
| Washington County | 5,190 | 13,836 | 296 | 19,322 | R +44.8 |
| Garfield County | 5,048 | 13,081 | 281 | 18,410 | R +43.6 |
| McClain County | 3,928 | 12,944 | 262 | 17,134 | R +52.6 |
| Osage County | 5,463 | 11,189 | 258 | 16,910 | R +33.9 |
| Carter County | 4,277 | 10,988 | 237 | 15,502 | R +43.3 |
| Cherokee County | 5,983 | 9,184 | 235 | 15,402 | R +20.8 |
| Stephens County | 3,236 | 11,505 | 229 | 14,970 | R +55.2 |
| Delaware County | 3,318 | 11,347 | 228 | 14,893 | R +53.9 |
| Le Flore County | 2,789 | 11,630 | 224 | 14,643 | R +60.4 |
| Pittsburg County | 3,527 | 10,785 | 222 | 14,534 | R +49.9 |
| Bryan County | 3,717 | 10,369 | 218 | 14,304 | R +46.5 |
| Mayes County | 3,241 | 10,686 | 216 | 14,143 | R +52.6 |
| Kay County | 3,972 | 9,756 | 214 | 13,942 | R +41.5 |
| Pontotoc County | 4,223 | 8,248 | 193 | 12,664 | R +31.8 |
| Lincoln County | 2,805 | 9,403 | 190 | 12,398 | R +53.2 |
| Sequoyah County | 2,831 | 9,196 | 187 | 12,214 | R +52.1 |
| Okmulgee County | 3,892 | 7,781 | 182 | 11,855 | R +32.8 |
| McCurtain County | 1,880 | 7,402 | 144 | 9,426 | R +58.6 |
| Garvin County | 1,964 | 6,862 | 136 | 8,962 | R +54.6 |
| Ottawa County | 2,423 | 6,292 | 135 | 8,850 | R +43.7 |
| Custer County | 2,336 | 6,262 | 134 | 8,732 | R +45.0 |
| Caddo County | 2,593 | 5,138 | 120 | 7,851 | R +32.4 |
| McIntosh County | 1,954 | 4,947 | 107 | 7,008 | R +42.7 |
| Seminole County | 1,918 | 4,700 | 103 | 6,721 | R +41.4 |
| Jackson County | 1,630 | 4,984 | 102 | 6,716 | R +49.9 |
| Beckham County | 1,295 | 4,903 | 96 | 6,294 | R +57.3 |
| Woodward County | 1,164 | 4,886 | 94 | 6,144 | R +60.6 |
| Adair County | 1,307 | 4,594 | 91 | 5,992 | R +54.9 |
| Pawnee County | 1,401 | 4,090 | 85 | 5,576 | R +48.2 |
| Kingfisher County | 967 | 4,431 | 84 | 5,482 | R +63.2 |
| Marshall County | 1,099 | 3,952 | 79 | 5,130 | R +55.6 |
| Craig County | 1,245 | 3,625 | 76 | 4,946 | R +48.1 |
| Murray County | 1,166 | 3,530 | 72 | 4,768 | R +49.6 |
| Atoka County | 903 | 3,641 | 71 | 4,615 | R +59.3 |
| Choctaw County | 985 | 3,534 | 71 | 4,590 | R +55.5 |
| Texas County | 899 | 3,392 | 67 | 4,358 | R +57.2 |
| Noble County | 1,073 | 2,958 | 63 | 4,094 | R +46.0 |
| Hughes County | 938 | 2,983 | 61 | 3,982 | R +51.4 |
| Haskell County | 716 | 3,151 | 60 | 3,927 | R +62.0 |
| Washita County | 681 | 3,158 | 59 | 3,898 | R +63.5 |
| Pushmataha County | 676 | 3,045 | 58 | 3,779 | R +62.7 |
| Nowata County | 710 | 2,920 | 56 | 3,686 | R +59.9 |
| Johnston County | 776 | 2,583 | 52 | 3,411 | R +53.0 |
| Okfuskee County | 882 | 2,400 | 51 | 3,333 | R +45.5 |
| Latimer County | 772 | 2,501 | 51 | 3,324 | R +52.0 |
| Love County | 669 | 2,526 | 51 | 3,246 | R +57.2 |
| Blaine County | 690 | 2,419 | 48 | 3,157 | R +54.8 |
| Woods County | 711 | 2,362 | 48 | 3,121 | R +52.9 |
| Major County | 405 | 2,473 | 44 | 2,922 | R +70.8 |
| Kiowa County | 705 | 1,951 | 42 | 2,698 | R +46.2 |
| Coal County | 399 | 1,639 | 32 | 2,070 | R +59.9 |
| Tillman County | 501 | 1,534 | 31 | 2,066 | R +50.0 |
| Cotton County | 446 | 1,560 | 31 | 2,037 | R +54.7 |
| Alfalfa County | 341 | 1,539 | 30 | 1,910 | R +62.8 |
| Dewey County | 271 | 1,569 | 28 | 1,868 | R +69.5 |
| Jefferson County | 341 | 1,465 | 28 | 1,834 | R +61.3 |
| Beaver County | 227 | 1,555 | 28 | 1,810 | R +73.4 |
| Grant County | 307 | 1,393 | 26 | 1,726 | R +62.9 |
| Greer County | 377 | 1,150 | 23 | 1,550 | R +49.8 |
| Ellis County | 242 | 1,282 | 24 | 1,548 | R +67.2 |
| Roger Mills County | 223 | 1,185 | 22 | 1,430 | R +67.3 |
| Harper County | 191 | 1,022 | 19 | 1,232 | R +67.4 |
| Cimarron County | 101 | 712 | 13 | 826 | R +74.0 |
| Harmon County | 168 | 526 | 10 | 704 | R +50.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +13.3 and R +31.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +29.5 |
| Blend of every leg | R +22.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +22.7 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +22.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +13.3 and R +31.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | MacIntyre | Sullivan | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||