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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Proposition 134

School sports teams by biological sex

Requires student athletes to play on school and college teams matching their biological sex. The forecast has Yes at 52.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 58% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated statuteTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
58%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
52.1%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
52.1% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
52.1% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

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Proposition 134 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
El Paso County: Yes +67,748Weld County: Yes +42,699Douglas County: Yes +36,715Mesa County: Yes +24,658Adams County: Yes +13,531Pueblo County: Yes +13,028Fremont County: Yes +9,369Montrose County: Yes +8,211Elbert County: Yes +8,024Delta County: Yes +6,614Morgan County: Yes +5,655Teller County: Yes +5,565Logan County: Yes +5,041Montezuma County: Yes +3,825Moffat County: Yes +3,490Garfield County: Yes +3,213Park County: Yes +2,683Otero County: Yes +2,583Yuma County: Yes +2,548Prowers County: Yes +2,330Kit Carson County: Yes +2,054Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,913Archuleta County: Yes +1,909Washington County: Yes +1,726Las Animas County: Yes +1,643Rio Grande County: Yes +1,632Alamosa County: Yes +1,444Lincoln County: Yes +1,438Custer County: Yes +1,298Phillips County: Yes +1,231Grand County: Yes +1,213Baca County: Yes +1,167Conejos County: Yes +950Bent County: Yes +865Crowley County: Yes +841Larimer County: Yes +812Huerfano County: Yes +785Dolores County: Yes +667Cheyenne County: Yes +664Sedgwick County: Yes +644Kiowa County: Yes +515Chaffee County: Yes +429Jackson County: Yes +386Saguache County: Yes +330Gilpin County: Yes +141Hinsdale County: Yes +118Mineral County: Yes +110Clear Creek County: Yes +64Costilla County: Yes +46Lake County: Yes +40Denver County: No +105,691Boulder County: No +56,297Arapahoe County: No +4,341Broomfield County: No +3,267Jefferson County: No +3,193Summit County: No +2,393Pitkin County: No +2,113Eagle County: No +1,191San Miguel County: No +1,116Routt County: No +1,077Gunnison County: No +858La Plata County: No +115Ouray County: No +75San Juan County: No +49
Yes +294,605 net votes from 50 countiesStatewide Yes +4.2, a 112,829 vote marginNo +181,776 net votes from 14 counties

Projected vote

2,661,961 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,387,39552.1%
No1,274,56647.9%
Total2,661,961100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County191,974124,226316,20060.7%
Denver County103,625209,316312,94133.1%
Jefferson County151,099154,292305,39149.5%
Arapahoe County135,974140,315276,28949.2%
Douglas County113,38976,674190,06359.7%
Adams County100,72187,190187,91153.6%
Larimer County93,28092,468185,74850.2%
Boulder County56,158112,455168,61333.3%
Weld County93,32750,628143,95564.8%
Mesa County50,75626,09876,85466.0%
Pueblo County42,85129,82372,67459.0%
Broomfield County17,62520,89238,51745.8%
La Plata County15,06415,17930,24349.8%
Garfield County14,45311,24025,69356.3%
Eagle County11,22512,41623,64147.5%
Fremont County15,6986,32922,02771.3%
Montrose County14,8716,66021,53169.1%
Delta County11,4944,88016,37470.2%
Elbert County11,7223,69815,42076.0%
Summit County6,2938,68614,97942.0%
Teller County9,6804,11513,79570.2%
Routt County6,3577,43413,79146.1%
Montezuma County8,3594,53412,89364.8%
Chaffee County6,1135,68411,79751.8%
Morgan County8,4582,80311,26175.1%
Park County6,4173,73410,15163.2%
Pitkin County3,7425,8559,59739.0%
Gunnison County4,2315,0899,32045.4%
Logan County7,0001,9598,95978.1%
Grand County4,7373,5248,26157.3%
Archuleta County4,8432,9347,77762.3%
Otero County5,1262,5437,66966.8%
Las Animas County4,2242,5816,80562.1%
Alamosa County3,9742,5306,50461.1%
Moffat County4,5931,1035,69680.6%
Clear Creek County2,6422,5785,22050.6%
Rio Grande County3,4251,7935,21865.6%
Prowers County3,4291,0994,52875.7%
San Miguel County1,5062,6224,12836.5%
Yuma County3,2857374,02281.7%
Huerfano County2,3061,5213,82760.3%
Conejos County2,2091,2593,46863.7%
Gilpin County1,7461,6053,35152.1%
Ouray County1,5861,6613,24748.8%
Lake County1,6411,6013,24250.6%
Custer County2,2419433,18470.4%
Kit Carson County2,5955413,13682.7%
Rio Blanco County2,5055923,09780.9%
Saguache County1,6341,3042,93855.6%
Washington County2,0743482,42285.6%
Lincoln County1,8704322,30281.2%
Bent County1,4445792,02371.4%
Phillips County1,6213902,01180.6%
Costilla County8888421,73051.3%
Baca County1,4462791,72583.8%
Crowley County1,2694281,69774.8%
Dolores County9622951,25776.5%
Sedgwick County8972531,15078.0%
Cheyenne County78111789887.0%
Kiowa County62010572585.5%
Jackson County54015469477.8%
Hinsdale County31119350461.7%
Mineral County28417445862.0%
San Juan County18523441944.2%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition 134 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.