Maryland House of Delegates forecast
Democrats win control of the Maryland House of Delegates in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 141 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Maryland House of Delegates map
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 108 D to 33 REvery House of Delegates district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 seats | Jesse T Pippy, April Fleming Miller, Barrie S Ciliberti 2022 | Jerry Donald, Andrew Duck, Alleria Stanley vs Jason E. Keckler, April Fleming Miller, Jesse T. Pippy | R +8.5 | R +0.4 | 48% | 33,981 | 34,240 | 69,260 | Toss up |
| 30B | Seth Howard 2022 | Matt Johnston vs Seth Howard | R +7.3 | R +0.4 | 48% | 10,751 | 10,838 | 21,918 | Toss up |
| 42A | Nino Mangione 2022 | Jyoti Mohan vs Charles Edward Murphy, III | R +9.3 | R +3.3 | 31% | 11,830 | 12,645 | 24,847 | Lean R |
| 27C | Mark N Fisher 2022 | Jennifer M. Davidson vs Mark N. Fisher | R +17.1 | R +5.0 | 21% | 10,776 | 11,910 | 23,032 | Lean R |
| 34B | Susan K Mccomas 2022 | Anthony Lyon vs Jake Taylor | R +8.5 | R +5.3 | 22% | 10,311 | 11,476 | 22,119 | Lean R |
| 53 seats | April Rose, Christopher Eric Bouchat, Chris Tomlinson 2022 | Dayana Bergman, Alison Rudolph, Courtney Alexa Welch vs April R. Rose, Chris Tomlinson, Steve Whisler | R +18.8 | R +6.8 | 16% | 30,086 | 34,441 | 65,510 | Likely R |
| 363 seats | Jay A Jacobs, Jeff Ghrist, Steve Arentz 2022 | Nevin Crouse, Michelle Ravert, Crystal Woodward vs Jeff Ghrist, Jay A. Jacobs, Steve Arentz | R +19.2 | R +7.1 | 13% | 28,175 | 32,508 | 61,608 | Likely R |
| 29C | Todd B Morgan 2022 | Shaara Watts vs Todd B. Morgan | R +16.1 | R +10.0 | 7% | 9,305 | 11,382 | 21,003 | Likely R |
Projected Maryland House of Delegates vote
141 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 1,737,375 | 72.3% |
| Republicans | 642,406 | 26.7% |
| Independents and others | 24,737 | 1.0% |
| Total | 2,404,520 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.