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2026 ballot measure forecast

Washington Initiative Measure No. IP26-645

Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes

Repeals the 2026 9.9 percent tax on individual income over 1 million and bars state and local income taxes. The forecast has Yes at 43.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 11% chance to pass.

Likely to failCitizen initiated statuteIncome taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
11%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
43.2%
80% range 36 to 51
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
41.4%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
47.4% Yes
Polls
41.4% Yes
Forecast
43.2% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Let's Go Washington initiative to the people; No campaign backed by Rick Steves and Ken Jennings; court upheld ballot language including fiscal impact statement (about 11.4 billion revenue loss FY2027 to 2031).

Also on the Washington ballot

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638
Girls' sports limited to biological females
71%
Initiative Measure No. IL26-001
Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement
30%

Initiative Measure No. IP26-645 by county

Adams CountyAsotin CountyBenton CountyChelan CountyClallam CountyClark CountyColumbia CountyCowlitz CountyDouglas CountyFerry CountyFranklin CountyGarfield CountyGrant CountyGrays Harbor CountyIsland CountyJefferson CountyKing CountyKitsap CountyKittitas CountyKlickitat CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMason CountyOkanogan CountyPacific CountyPend Oreille CountyPierce CountySan Juan CountySkagit CountySkamania CountySnohomish CountySpokane CountyStevens CountyThurston CountyWahkiakum CountyWalla Walla CountyWhatcom CountyWhitman CountyYakima CountyKingPierceSnohomishSpokaneClarkThurstonKitsapWhatcomBentonYakimaSkagitCowlitz
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Benton County: Yes +3,868Lewis County: Yes +3,473Stevens County: Yes +3,344Grant County: Yes +3,231Cowlitz County: Yes +1,909Yakima County: Yes +1,336Franklin County: Yes +1,234Douglas County: Yes +1,165Lincoln County: Yes +1,074Pend Oreille County: Yes +852Adams County: Yes +591Asotin County: Yes +584Kittitas County: Yes +448Okanogan County: Yes +371Ferry County: Yes +321Columbia County: Yes +310Garfield County: Yes +200Wahkiakum County: Yes +90Skamania County: Yes +45Chelan County: Yes +19Klickitat County: Yes +4King County: No +237,202Snohomish County: No +36,291Pierce County: No +26,537Whatcom County: No +15,244Thurston County: No +15,081Kitsap County: No +14,895Clark County: No +13,380Jefferson County: No +4,757Island County: No +4,347Skagit County: No +3,986Spokane County: No +3,752San Juan County: No +2,912Clallam County: No +2,656Whitman County: No +1,166Mason County: No +774Pacific County: No +402Grays Harbor County: No +371Walla Walla County: No +114
Yes +24,469 net votes from 21 countiesStatewide No +13.7, a 359,398 vote marginNo +383,867 net votes from 18 counties

Projected vote

2,625,042 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,132,82243.2%
No1,492,22056.8%
Total2,625,042100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
King County274,002511,204785,20634.9%
Pierce County129,420155,957285,37745.4%
Snohomish County119,532155,823275,35543.4%
Spokane County91,96395,715187,67849.0%
Clark County82,09995,479177,57846.2%
Thurston County46,79061,871108,66143.1%
Kitsap County45,24560,140105,38542.9%
Whatcom County39,98755,23195,21842.0%
Benton County34,41030,54264,95253.0%
Yakima County28,08026,74454,82451.2%
Skagit County21,73725,72347,46045.8%
Cowlitz County19,91318,00437,91752.5%
Island County15,93020,27736,20744.0%
Clallam County15,39818,05433,45246.0%
Lewis County16,73013,25729,98755.8%
Chelan County14,36414,34528,70950.0%
Grays Harbor County12,03412,40524,43949.2%
Mason County11,82912,60324,43248.4%
Grant County13,1329,90123,03357.0%
Walla Walla County9,97010,08420,05449.7%
Franklin County10,4139,17919,59253.1%
Stevens County11,2357,89119,12658.7%
Jefferson County6,59511,35217,94736.7%
Kittitas County9,0968,64817,74451.3%
Okanogan County7,0826,71113,79351.3%
Whitman County6,2907,45613,74645.8%
Douglas County7,4516,28613,73754.2%
Pacific County4,6685,0709,73847.9%
San Juan County3,3646,2769,64034.9%
Klickitat County4,7264,7229,44850.0%
Asotin County4,0253,4417,46653.9%
Pend Oreille County3,2722,4205,69257.5%
Lincoln County3,1082,0345,14260.4%
Skamania County2,5692,5245,09350.4%
Adams County2,0411,4503,49158.5%
Ferry County1,5501,2292,77955.8%
Wahkiakum County1,1131,0232,13652.1%
Columbia County1,0527421,79458.6%
Garfield County6074071,01459.9%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
DHM Research400 2026-09-213557837.7%
DHM Research400 2026-09-2140441645.3%
How this is built
Initiative Measure No. IP26-645 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wastatepta.org, fox13seattle.com, komonews.com, theurbanist.org. All measures.