Cory Booker is all but certain to win New Jersey's Senate seat.
Cory Booker vs Justin Murphy. The model has Booker ahead by 26.2 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
3,571,973 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Booker D | 2,205,271 | 61.7% |
| Justin Murphy R | 1,269,187 | 35.5% |
| Veronica Fernandez I | 47,507 | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Carducci I | 18,217 | 0.5% |
| Michael Estrada I | 18,217 | 0.5% |
| Joanne Kuniansky SWP | 13,573 | 0.4% |
| Total | 3,571,973 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +35.6 and D +17.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
Polls of the race
| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 404,461 ballots cast so far in New Jersey, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
34 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Mikie SherrillGovernor of New Jerseysource
- GiffordsGun safety groupsource
- SEIULabor unionsource
- New Jersey State Building and Construction Trades CouncilBuilding trades unionssource
- Planned Parenthood Action FundReproductive rights groupsource
- Sierra ClubEnvironmental groupsource
- League of Conservation VotersEnvironmental groupsource
- AIPACPro Israel lobbysource
- Mike TestaNew Jersey state senator, SD-01, and Cumberland County Republican chairsource
- Gloucester County Republican OrganizationCounty partysource
- Mercer County Republican OrganizationCounty partysource
- Bill SpadeaRadio host, 2025 gubernatorial candidatesource
- New Jersey Right to Life PACAnti abortion groupsource
- Camden County Republican OrganizationCounty partysource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Booker | Murphy |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 57.0 | 40.3 |
| Women | 52% | 65.1 | 32.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 63.9 | 33.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 58.6 | 38.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 61.3 | 36.0 |
| 65+ | 32% | 61.9 | 35.5 |
| RaceWhite | 62% | 50.0 | 47.4 |
| Black | 13% | 88.8 | 8.7 |
| Latino | 15% | 70.5 | 26.7 |
| Asian and other | 11% | 79.6 | 17.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 29% | 42.9 | 54.4 |
| White women | 32% | 56.3 | 41.0 |
| Black men | 6% | 88.0 | 9.5 |
| Black women | 7% | 89.6 | 8.0 |
| Latino men | 8% | 68.5 | 28.7 |
| Latino women | 7% | 72.6 | 24.6 |
| All other races | 11% | 79.6 | 17.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
21 counties| County | Booker | Murphy | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,211,261 | 1,263,688 | 97,024 | 3,571,973 | D +26.5 |
| Bergen County | 239,630 | 133,374 | 8,001 | 381,005 | D +27.8 |
| Middlesex County | 197,278 | 95,719 | 9,374 | 302,371 | D +33.7 |
| Essex County | 232,977 | 52,478 | 6,123 | 291,578 | D +62.2 |
| Monmouth County | 151,597 | 124,507 | 8,246 | 284,350 | D +9.7 |
| Ocean County | 108,421 | 142,578 | 6,965 | 257,964 | R +13.1 |
| Morris County | 126,403 | 98,675 | 4,359 | 229,437 | D +12.1 |
| Hudson County | 161,227 | 45,485 | 8,389 | 215,101 | D +53.9 |
| Camden County | 147,498 | 59,254 | 3,576 | 210,328 | D +42.2 |
| Union County | 143,776 | 55,091 | 5,309 | 204,176 | D +43.6 |
| Burlington County | 126,225 | 69,969 | 4,004 | 200,198 | D +28.3 |
| Passaic County | 101,921 | 63,996 | 6,375 | 172,292 | D +22.1 |
| Somerset County | 93,379 | 49,431 | 3,662 | 146,472 | D +30.2 |
| Mercer County | 102,542 | 36,502 | 3,419 | 142,463 | D +46.7 |
| Gloucester County | 72,378 | 54,917 | 4,073 | 131,368 | D +13.3 |
| Atlantic County | 61,655 | 42,384 | 3,108 | 107,147 | D +18.1 |
| Sussex County | 28,759 | 34,261 | 3,039 | 66,059 | R +8.4 |
| Hunterdon County | 34,389 | 27,448 | 2,443 | 64,280 | D +10.9 |
| Cumberland County | 27,172 | 19,590 | 2,050 | 48,812 | D +15.8 |
| Warren County | 21,739 | 22,999 | 2,010 | 46,748 | R +2.6 |
| Cape May County | 19,749 | 22,998 | 1,096 | 43,843 | R +7.4 |
| Salem County | 12,546 | 12,032 | 1,403 | 25,981 | D +2.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.