Wes Moore is all but certain to win Maryland's governorship.
Wes Moore vs Dan Cox. The model has Moore ahead by 34.6 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,504,709 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Moore D | 1,597,486 | 63.8% |
| Dan Cox R | 730,390 | 29.2% |
| Andy Ellis G | 108,704 | 4.3% |
| Cathy White WC | 67,878 | 2.7% |
| Total | 2,504,709 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +40.5 and D +28.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +35.4 | |
| UMBC Institute of Politics | 776 LV | 18d | D +27.051 to 24 |
| Zenith Research | 800 LV | 73d | D +27.058 to 31 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 218,469 ballots cast so far in Maryland, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
24 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Angela AlsobrooksU.S. Senator, Marylandsource
- Chris Van HollenU.S. Senator, Marylandsource
- April McClain DelaneyU.S. Rep., MD-06source
- Steuart PittmanAnne Arundel County Executive, Maryland Democratic Party chairsource
- Calvin Ball IIIHoward County Executivesource
- Ed RothsteinMaryland Veterans Secretary (Republican)source
- Brandon ScottMayor of Baltimoresource
- Aisha BraveboyPrince George's County Executivesource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Moore | Cox |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 60.3 | 32.5 |
| Women | 53% | 67.9 | 25.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 65.6 | 27.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 62.4 | 30.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 64.5 | 28.5 |
| 65+ | 31% | 65.2 | 27.8 |
| RaceWhite | 55% | 49.1 | 43.6 |
| Black | 30% | 86.8 | 6.8 |
| Latino | 6% | 73.0 | 20.4 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 78.0 | 14.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 26% | 42.4 | 50.3 |
| White women | 30% | 54.9 | 37.7 |
| Black men | 13% | 85.9 | 7.6 |
| Black women | 16% | 87.6 | 6.1 |
| Latino men | 3% | 71.1 | 22.3 |
| Latino women | 3% | 74.9 | 18.4 |
| All other races | 9% | 78.0 | 14.1 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
24 counties| County | Moore | Cox | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,595,762 | 732,086 | 176,861 | 2,504,709 | D +34.5 |
| Montgomery County | 335,960 | 69,860 | 26,363 | 432,183 | D +62.0 |
| Prince George's County | 299,129 | 24,054 | 17,727 | 340,910 | D +80.9 |
| Baltimore County | 214,072 | 97,027 | 27,052 | 338,151 | D +35.0 |
| Anne Arundel County | 143,854 | 89,904 | 20,051 | 253,809 | D +21.7 |
| Baltimore city | 172,721 | 15,344 | 15,689 | 203,754 | D +77.5 |
| Howard County | 106,568 | 34,728 | 11,622 | 152,918 | D +47.5 |
| Frederick County | 61,390 | 54,014 | 9,223 | 124,627 | D +6.5 |
| Harford County | 46,855 | 62,291 | 9,880 | 119,026 | R +12.6 |
| Carroll County | 28,272 | 45,603 | 6,951 | 80,826 | R +21.0 |
| Charles County | 50,559 | 18,503 | 3,711 | 72,773 | D +44.6 |
| Washington County | 19,916 | 35,557 | 4,368 | 59,841 | R +25.7 |
| St. Mary's County | 17,349 | 24,932 | 3,978 | 46,259 | R +16.1 |
| Calvert County | 18,221 | 22,229 | 2,905 | 43,355 | R +9.0 |
| Cecil County | 12,627 | 25,209 | 3,334 | 41,170 | R +30.3 |
| Wicomico County | 16,194 | 19,387 | 2,885 | 38,466 | R +7.8 |
| Allegany County | 7,490 | 17,424 | 2,078 | 26,992 | R +36.7 |
| Worcester County | 8,404 | 16,705 | 1,602 | 26,711 | R +30.7 |
| Queen Anne's County | 8,324 | 15,216 | 1,853 | 25,393 | R +26.6 |
| Talbot County | 9,288 | 8,569 | 1,282 | 19,139 | D +4.3 |
| Dorchester County | 4,876 | 8,001 | 969 | 13,846 | R +22.3 |
| Garrett County | 2,510 | 9,586 | 1,066 | 13,162 | R +53.5 |
| Caroline County | 3,548 | 8,487 | 1,004 | 13,039 | R +37.6 |
| Kent County | 4,477 | 4,264 | 669 | 9,410 | D +2.7 |
| Somerset County | 3,158 | 5,192 | 599 | 8,949 | R +22.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.