2026 ballot measure forecast
Massachusetts Question 7
Allow single-family homes on smaller lots
Requires municipalities to allow single-family homes on residential lots of at least 5,000 square feet with 50 feet of frontage served by public water and sewer; Boston excluded. The forecast has Yes at 60.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
60.4%80% range 55 to 66
Needs
50%a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots
Polling average
61.7%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 54.6% Yes
- Polls
- 61.7% Yes
- Forecast
- 60.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.
The campaign
Legalize Starter Homes supports, spent at least $1M; Massachusetts Municipal Association opposes.
Also on the Massachusetts ballot
Question 1
Apply public records law to Legislature and governor
>99%
Question 2
Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff
>99%
Question 3
Single all-party primary, top two advance
60%
Question 4
Election Day voter registration
>99%
Question 5
Change state revenue cap and rebate excess
92%
Question 6
Create Nature for All conservation fund
>99%
Question 8
Repeal recreational marijuana sales
<1%
Question 9
Keep or repeal 2024 gun law
>99%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +558,878 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +20.8, a 558,878 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,687,746 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,623,312 | 60.4% |
| No | 1,064,434 | 39.6% |
| Total | 2,687,746 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 398,373 | 242,154 | 640,527 | 62.2% |
| Worcester County | 185,819 | 132,970 | 318,789 | 58.3% |
| Essex County | 182,158 | 123,510 | 305,668 | 59.6% |
| Norfolk County | 181,799 | 117,712 | 299,511 | 60.7% |
| Suffolk County | 158,327 | 88,197 | 246,524 | 64.2% |
| Plymouth County | 131,464 | 94,658 | 226,122 | 58.1% |
| Bristol County | 117,700 | 88,076 | 205,776 | 57.2% |
| Hampden County | 91,835 | 66,099 | 157,934 | 58.1% |
| Barnstable County | 69,777 | 47,229 | 117,006 | 59.6% |
| Hampshire County | 43,292 | 25,881 | 69,173 | 62.6% |
| Berkshire County | 33,059 | 20,054 | 53,113 | 62.2% |
| Franklin County | 20,247 | 12,415 | 32,662 | 62.0% |
| Dukes County | 6,130 | 3,419 | 9,549 | 64.2% |
| Nantucket County | 3,332 | 2,060 | 5,392 | 61.8% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe | 500 LV | 2026-10-18 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 16.4 | 47.5% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 65 | 21 | 10 | 71.2% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 800 LV | 2026-09-22 | 51 | 24 | 24 | 59.6% |
| UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll) | 564 LV | 2026-09-21 | 59 | 14 | 26 | 68.4% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-08-12 | 59 | 21 | 14 | 67.7% |
| UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll) | 620 LV | 2026-02-16 | 36 |
How this is built
Question 7 is forecast as a housing measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us, boston.com, nbcboston.com, commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.