2026 forecast · Arizona State Mine Inspector
Brian Matlock is very likely to win Arizona's state mine inspector race.
Brian Matlock vs Walter "Les" Presmyk, with Walter "Les" Presmyk running again. The model has Matlock ahead by 9.1 points, with a 92 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +9.1Polls R +3.6Updated October 22, 2026
Brian Matlock
Democrat
54.0%
1,721,515 projected votes
Walter "Les" Presmyk
Republican
45.0%
1,432,481 projected votes
92%Matlock
8%Presmyk
Matlock very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Matlock wins about 92 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Matlock +441,414 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +9.1, a 289,035 vote marginPresmyk +152,379 net votes from 10 counties
Projected statewide vote
3,185,856 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Matlock D | 1,721,515 | 54.0% |
| Walter "Les" Presmyk R | 1,432,481 | 45.0% |
| Other candidates | 31,858 | 1.0% |
| Total | 3,185,856 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
15 counties| County | Matlock | Presmyk | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,721,516 | 1,432,481 | 31,859 | 3,185,856 | D +9.1 |
| Maricopa County | 1,081,056 | 826,322 | 19,267 | 1,926,645 | D +13.2 |
| Pima County | 314,882 | 171,184 | 4,909 | 490,975 | D +29.3 |
| Pinal County | 77,487 | 112,040 | 1,914 | 191,441 | R +18.1 |
| Yavapai County | 49,937 | 87,445 | 1,388 | 138,770 | R +27.0 |
| Mohave County | 25,753 | 75,431 | 1,022 | 102,206 | R +48.6 |
| Coconino County | 45,713 | 21,951 | 683 | 68,347 | D +34.8 |
| Yuma County | 30,181 | 33,582 | 644 | 64,407 | R +5.3 |
| Cochise County | 24,302 | 31,236 | 561 | 56,099 | R +12.4 |
| Navajo County | 22,325 | 25,262 | 481 | 48,068 | R +6.1 |
| Apache County | 21,425 | 8,980 | 307 | 30,712 | D +40.5 |
| Gila County | 8,996 | 17,004 | 263 | 26,263 | R +30.5 |
| Santa Cruz County | 11,938 | 5,163 | 173 | 17,274 | D +39.2 |
| Graham County | 3,992 | 10,171 | 143 | 14,306 | R +43.2 |
| La Paz County | 2,208 | 4,861 | 72 | 7,141 | R +37.1 |
| Greenlee County | 1,321 | 1,849 | 32 | 3,202 | R +16.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.2 and D +0.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.8 |
| With polls, 5% weight | D +9.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.2 and D +0.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Matlock | Presmyk | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 33 | 38 | R +5.0 |