Adam Hamilton is slightly favored to win Kansas's Senate seat.
Adam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall. The model has Hamilton ahead by 2.8 points, winning 67 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,145,610 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton D | 573,732 | 50.1% |
| Roger Marshall R | 541,634 | 47.3% |
| David Graham L | 30,244 | 2.6% |
| Total | 1,145,610 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.5 and R +4.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +1.3 | |
| On Point Polling | 479 LV | 0d | D +1.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 800 LV | 1d | R +0.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 5d | D +1.1 |
| GBAO (D) | 600 LV | 11d | D +2.6 |
| GBAO for Hamilton (D) | 600 LV | 11d | D +2.7 |
| YouGov | 2,255 LV | 11d | D +2.2 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,095 LV | 14d | D +2.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 605 LV | 15d | R +0.6 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 750 LV | 29d | D +2.8 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 29d | D +1.6 |
| co/efficient (R) | 915 LV | 35d | R +1.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 60d | R +1.3 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 569 LV | 68d | R +2.0 |
| GBAO (D) | 600 LV | 94d | R +6.3 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 1,013 LV | 260d | R +9.1 |
Read from 55,481 ballots cast so far in Kansas, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
32 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Quinton LucasMayor of Kansas City, Missourisource
- Arch NaramoreRepublican former primary candidate for this seatsource
- Mike HaydenFormer Governor of Kansassource
- Laura KellyGovernor of Kansassource
- Kathleen SebeliusFormer Governor of Kansassource
- John W. CarlinFormer Governor of Kansassource
- Mark ParkinsonFormer Governor of Kansassource
- Bill GravesFormer Governor of Kansassource
- Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
- JD VanceVice Presidentsource
- Kansas Farm Bureaufarm organizationsource
- Teamsterssource
- International Brotherhood of Teamsterslabor unionsource
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life AmericaNational anti-abortion group, Candidate Fundsource
- Sean O'BrienGeneral President of the Teamsterssource
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmenlabor unionsource
Harry Enten: Named Kansas among toss up Senate races, with polling showing a tie or Democrats up a few points. source
Karl Rove: Said Democrats will fall short in Kansas but it is a race. source
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Kansas Senate from Likely R to Lean R. source
Tim Miller: Hosted Rich Baris, who said Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, Texas and Ohio could all be Democratic openings. source
David Chalian: Said the GOP moving money to defend Roger Marshall in Kansas was not on anyone's bingo card. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hamilton | Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 43.2 | 54.2 |
| Women | 53% | 51.9 | 45.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 52.6 | 44.7 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 47.2 | 50.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 46.0 | 51.4 |
| 65+ | 33% | 47.9 | 49.5 |
| RaceWhite | 83% | 42.8 | 54.6 |
| Black | 5% | 85.6 | 11.7 |
| Latino | 7% | 61.2 | 36.2 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 72.5 | 24.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 37.1 | 60.4 |
| White women | 44% | 47.8 | 49.6 |
| Black men | 2% | 83.2 | 14.1 |
| Black women | 3% | 87.7 | 9.6 |
| Latino men | 4% | 59.0 | 38.3 |
| Latino women | 3% | 63.4 | 34.0 |
| All other races | 6% | 72.5 | 24.4 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
105 counties| County | Hamilton | Marshall | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 571,489 | 544,030 | 30,091 | 1,145,610 | D +2.4 |
| Johnson County | 185,353 | 100,605 | 6,432 | 292,390 | D +28.9 |
| Sedgwick County | 89,011 | 87,853 | 4,908 | 181,772 | D +0.5 |
| Shawnee County | 41,343 | 28,335 | 1,934 | 71,612 | D +18.1 |
| Douglas County | 40,687 | 10,865 | 1,267 | 52,819 | D +56.5 |
| Wyandotte County | 31,907 | 9,802 | 1,469 | 43,178 | D +51.2 |
| Leavenworth County | 15,263 | 15,025 | 1,034 | 31,322 | D +0.6 |
| Butler County | 9,885 | 16,568 | 735 | 27,188 | R +24.5 |
| Reno County | 9,019 | 13,714 | 631 | 23,364 | R +20.1 |
| Riley County | 13,836 | 8,777 | 532 | 23,145 | D +21.9 |
| Saline County | 8,563 | 11,044 | 564 | 20,171 | R +12.4 |
| Miami County | 6,123 | 8,867 | 384 | 15,374 | R +17.7 |
| Crawford County | 6,531 | 7,093 | 494 | 14,118 | R +4.1 |
| Harvey County | 6,379 | 7,346 | 338 | 14,063 | R +6.9 |
| McPherson County | 4,317 | 7,793 | 310 | 12,420 | R +28.1 |
| Cowley County | 4,595 | 7,121 | 387 | 12,103 | R +20.9 |
| Ellis County | 5,012 | 6,641 | 275 | 11,928 | R +13.7 |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,465 | 7,685 | 310 | 11,460 | R +36.8 |
| Lyon County | 5,808 | 5,212 | 329 | 11,349 | D +5.2 |
| Montgomery County | 3,361 | 7,442 | 288 | 11,091 | R +36.7 |
| Franklin County | 4,399 | 5,935 | 386 | 10,720 | R +14.4 |
| Barton County | 2,789 | 6,242 | 212 | 9,243 | R +37.4 |
| Finney County | 3,712 | 5,056 | 253 | 9,021 | R +14.9 |
| Sumner County | 2,942 | 5,741 | 287 | 8,970 | R +31.2 |
| Jefferson County | 3,586 | 4,528 | 225 | 8,339 | R +11.3 |
| Geary County | 3,996 | 3,953 | 280 | 8,229 | D +0.6 |
| Dickinson County | 2,092 | 5,512 | 219 | 7,823 | R +43.9 |
| Cherokee County | 2,257 | 4,958 | 246 | 7,461 | R +36.2 |
| Ford County | 2,815 | 4,386 | 192 | 7,393 | R +21.4 |
| Labette County | 2,597 | 4,111 | 207 | 6,915 | R +21.9 |
| Osage County | 2,531 | 4,073 | 226 | 6,830 | R +22.6 |
| Atchison County | 2,524 | 3,485 | 224 | 6,233 | R +15.6 |
| Neosho County | 1,981 | 3,720 | 170 | 5,871 | R +29.5 |
| Bourbon County | 1,619 | 3,840 | 163 | 5,622 | R +39.4 |
| Jackson County | 2,130 | 3,244 | 172 | 5,546 | R +19.9 |
| Marion County | 1,554 | 3,530 | 125 | 5,209 | R +37.9 |
| Nemaha County | 1,148 | 3,658 | 108 | 4,914 | R +50.8 |
| Allen County | 1,619 | 2,969 | 156 | 4,744 | R +28.3 |
| Marshall County | 1,317 | 2,836 | 124 | 4,277 | R +35.5 |
| Linn County | 1,150 | 2,959 | 149 | 4,258 | R +42.4 |
| Seward County | 1,615 | 2,228 | 103 | 3,946 | R +15.4 |
| Coffey County | 1,034 | 2,623 | 117 | 3,774 | R +41.9 |
| Brown County | 1,231 | 2,356 | 111 | 3,698 | R +30.1 |
| Clay County | 1,025 | 2,467 | 97 | 3,589 | R +40.0 |
| Cloud County | 986 | 2,471 | 107 | 3,564 | R +41.5 |
| Pratt County | 1,068 | 2,394 | 88 | 3,550 | R +37.0 |
| Rice County | 1,057 | 2,331 | 97 | 3,485 | R +36.5 |
| Wabaunsee County | 1,049 | 2,277 | 100 | 3,426 | R +35.6 |
| Wilson County | 919 | 2,384 | 99 | 3,402 | R +42.8 |
| Kingman County | 981 | 2,305 | 92 | 3,378 | R +39.1 |
| Anderson County | 916 | 2,203 | 123 | 3,242 | R +39.5 |
| Thomas County | 765 | 2,395 | 67 | 3,227 | R +50.3 |
| Doniphan County | 759 | 2,199 | 98 | 3,056 | R +46.8 |
| Russell County | 757 | 2,104 | 76 | 2,937 | R +45.8 |
| Mitchell County | 635 | 1,987 | 53 | 2,675 | R +50.3 |
| Ottawa County | 606 | 1,933 | 82 | 2,621 | R +50.5 |
| Greenwood County | 711 | 1,747 | 92 | 2,550 | R +40.3 |
| Ellsworth County | 798 | 1,626 | 67 | 2,491 | R +32.9 |
| Morris County | 876 | 1,494 | 63 | 2,433 | R +25.2 |
| Washington County | 523 | 1,852 | 56 | 2,431 | R +54.2 |
| Pawnee County | 770 | 1,588 | 53 | 2,411 | R +33.6 |
| Phillips County | 393 | 1,936 | 59 | 2,388 | R +64.3 |
| Sherman County | 476 | 1,775 | 60 | 2,311 | R +55.5 |
| Rooks County | 405 | 1,784 | 72 | 2,261 | R +60.6 |
| Harper County | 521 | 1,630 | 62 | 2,213 | R +49.8 |
| Republic County | 455 | 1,630 | 49 | 2,134 | R +54.5 |
| Norton County | 415 | 1,602 | 51 | 2,068 | R +56.9 |
| Gray County | 387 | 1,508 | 48 | 1,943 | R +57.2 |
| Scott County | 347 | 1,535 | 46 | 1,928 | R +61.4 |
| Grant County | 517 | 1,343 | 55 | 1,915 | R +42.6 |
| Barber County | 461 | 1,402 | 46 | 1,909 | R +49.0 |
| Smith County | 385 | 1,349 | 43 | 1,777 | R +53.5 |
| Stafford County | 427 | 1,219 | 40 | 1,686 | R +46.5 |
| Stevens County | 279 | 1,296 | 42 | 1,617 | R +62.4 |
| Osborne County | 372 | 1,149 | 42 | 1,563 | R +49.2 |
| Meade County | 285 | 1,163 | 34 | 1,482 | R +58.7 |
| Rush County | 360 | 1,012 | 37 | 1,409 | R +45.8 |
| Trego County | 349 | 1,002 | 38 | 1,389 | R +46.5 |
| Jewell County | 261 | 1,068 | 34 | 1,363 | R +58.9 |
| Chautauqua County | 255 | 1,071 | 28 | 1,354 | R +59.6 |
| Lincoln County | 311 | 981 | 31 | 1,323 | R +49.9 |
| Woodson County | 392 | 880 | 48 | 1,320 | R +36.3 |
| Decatur County | 267 | 962 | 32 | 1,261 | R +54.2 |
| Chase County | 417 | 802 | 35 | 1,254 | R +29.8 |
| Gove County | 224 | 1,000 | 24 | 1,248 | R +60.9 |
| Ness County | 190 | 1,023 | 25 | 1,238 | R +67.0 |
| Rawlins County | 241 | 960 | 27 | 1,228 | R +57.7 |
| Logan County | 245 | 942 | 29 | 1,216 | R +57.0 |
| Sheridan County | 201 | 977 | 19 | 1,197 | R +64.4 |
| Cheyenne County | 246 | 897 | 25 | 1,168 | R +54.6 |
| Elk County | 284 | 839 | 38 | 1,161 | R +47.2 |
| Kearny County | 265 | 855 | 21 | 1,141 | R +51.3 |
| Edwards County | 288 | 823 | 26 | 1,137 | R +46.1 |
| Graham County | 284 | 814 | 25 | 1,123 | R +46.5 |
| Haskell County | 269 | 817 | 26 | 1,112 | R +48.2 |
| Kiowa County | 191 | 793 | 26 | 1,010 | R +58.7 |
| Morton County | 179 | 721 | 21 | 921 | R +58.0 |
| Clark County | 190 | 688 | 24 | 902 | R +54.1 |
| Hodgeman County | 192 | 638 | 15 | 845 | R +51.7 |
| Comanche County | 171 | 590 | 22 | 783 | R +52.2 |
| Wichita County | 149 | 604 | 15 | 768 | R +58.4 |
| Lane County | 146 | 560 | 17 | 723 | R +56.2 |
| Wallace County | 67 | 609 | 11 | 687 | R +78.0 |
| Hamilton County | 180 | 483 | 15 | 678 | R +43.3 |
| Stanton County | 149 | 427 | 11 | 587 | R +46.1 |
| Greeley County | 104 | 383 | 11 | 498 | R +54.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.