2026 state legislative forecast
Georgia House forecast
Republicans win control of the Georgia House in 61% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 180 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 3 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
31%D61%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
84 to 94Median 88 ยท 91 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D0to R
After 2024: 80 D, 100 R
Environment
D +8.4Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Georgia House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 89 D to 91 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | Sharon Cooper 2024 | Michelle Schreiner vs Sharon Cooper | R +2.8 | R +0.5 | 47% | 15,983 | 16,137 | 32,610 | Toss up |
| 164 | Ron Stephens 2024 | Stephanie O. Burgess vs Ron Stephens | R +9.2 | R +0.8 | 44% | 13,674 | 13,889 | 27,982 | Toss up |
| 151 | Mike Cheokas 2024 | Ethan Wolfe vs Mike Cheokas ยท Travis Lockhart (I) | R +6.0 | D +2.4 | 64% | 10,977 | 10,466 | 21,769 | Lean D |
| 44 | Don L Parsons 2024 | Danielle Bell vs Don L. Parsons | R +8.9 | R +3.0 | 34% | 13,522 | 14,347 | 28,294 | Lean R |
| 19 | Joseph Gullett 2024 | Cynthia Starke-Jones vs Joseph Gullett | R +9.3 | R +3.6 | 29% | 13,731 | 14,754 | 28,918 | Lean R |
| 34 | Devan Seabaugh 2024 | Titus Nichols vs Devan Seabaugh | R +9.3 | R +4.0 | 28% | 15,295 | 16,553 | 32,333 | Lean R |
| 48 | Scott Hilton 2024 | Adam Cleveland vs Scott Hilton | D +1.1 | D +4.1 | 72% | 14,659 | 13,509 | 28,597 | Lean D |
| 147 | Bethany Ballard 2024 | Renita A. Duncan vs Bethany Ballard | R +11.2 | R +4.2 | 26% | 10,945 | 11,893 | 23,185 | Lean R |
| 120 | Houston Gaines 2024 | Suzanna Karatassos vs Gary "Ward" Black Jr. | R +2.6 | R +4.4 | 25% | 11,291 | 12,321 | 23,971 | Lean R |
| 49 | Chuck Martin 2024 | Sara Fuchs vs Charles E. "Chuck" Martin | R +6.4 | R +4.4 | 25% | 15,082 | 16,470 | 32,032 | Lean R |
| 81 | Noelle Kahaian 2024 | Mishael White vs Noelle Kahaian | R +12.2 | R +4.8 | 25% | 13,776 | 15,159 | 29,375 | Lean R |
| 46 | John Carson 2024 | Dumont J. Walker vs John Carson | R +8.5 | R +4.8 | 22% | 15,633 | 17,223 | 33,356 | Lean R |
| 128 | Mack Jackson 2024 | Tyrone A. Evans vs Trey Sheppard | R +4.4 | D +6.3 | 83% | 12,898 | 11,374 | 24,642 | Likely D |
| 29 | Matt Dubnik 2024 | Scott Soracco vs Matt Dubnik | R +15.8 | R +7.5 | 13% | 7,022 | 8,154 | 15,408 | Likely R |
| 40 | Kimberly R New 2024 | Elisa Lassiter vs Kimberly R. New | R +13.1 | R +7.6 | 14% | 11,846 | 13,792 | 26,029 | Likely R |
| 121 | Marcus A Wiedower 2024 | Eric Gisler vs Mack "Dutch" Guest IV | R +9.7 | R +7.7 | 12% | 13,560 | 15,832 | 29,840 | Likely R |
| 161 | Bill Hitchens 2024 | David Dillie vs Bill Hitchens | R +16.5 | R +8.2 | 11% | 11,865 | 13,985 | 26,243 | Likely R |
| 25 | Todd Jones 2024 | Elaine Padgett vs Todd Jones | R +12.7 | R +9.1 | 9% | 13,543 | 16,264 | 30,261 | Likely R |
| 105 | Sandy Donatucci 2024 | Farooq Mughal vs Sandy Donatucci | D +2.8 | D +9.7 | 92% | 13,982 | 11,521 | 25,891 | Likely D |
| 103 | Soo Hong 2024 | Chris Luchey vs Soo Hong | R +14.7 | R +9.7 | 7% | 11,376 | 13,814 | 25,574 | Likely R |
| 53 | Deborah Silcox 2024 | Beth Fuller vs Deborah Silcox | D +7.0 | D +9.9 | 94% | 16,448 | 13,471 | 30,375 | Likely D |
| 22 | Jordan Ridley 2024 | James Shade vs Jordan Ridley | R +15.8 | R +10.2 | 7% | 12,374 | 15,191 | 27,985 | Likely R |
| 99 | Matt Reeves 2024 | Michelle Kang vs Matt Reeves | D +5.8 | D +10.2 | 93% | 14,777 | 12,035 | 27,220 | Likely D |
| 36 | Ginny Ehrhart 2024 | Luc "Luke" Noiset vs Ginny Ehrhart | R +19.9 | R +11.7 | 4% | 13,264 | 16,789 | 30,511 | Likely R |
| 145 | Tangie Herring 2024 | Tangie Herring vs Eric S. Wilson | D +6.1 | D +11.9 | 97% | 12,930 | 10,171 | 23,453 | Likely D |
Projected Georgia House vote
180 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 2,323,285 | 51.8% |
| Republicans | 2,115,447 | 47.2% |
| Independents and others | 46,226 | 1.0% |
| Total | 4,484,959 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 2%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | 2026-07-13 | 51 | 43 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.