2026 forecast · Iowa Auditor
Taylor Wettach is very likely to win Iowa's auditor race.
Taylor Wettach vs Chris Cournoyer, an open seat. The model has Wettach ahead by 6.7 points, with a 86 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +6.7Updated October 22, 2026
Taylor Wettach
Democrat
52.7%
723,332 projected votes
Chris Cournoyer
Republican
46.0%
630,899 projected votes
86%Wettach
14%Cournoyer
Wettach very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Wettach wins about 86 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Wettach +200,222 net votes from 19 countiesStatewide D +6.7, a 92,438 vote marginCournoyer +107,784 net votes from 80 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,371,936 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Wettach D | 723,332 | 52.7% |
| Chris Cournoyer R | 630,899 | 46.0% |
| Other candidates | 17,704 | 1.3% |
| Total | 1,371,936 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Wettach | Cournoyer | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 723,335 | 630,897 | 17,699 | 1,371,931 | D +6.7 |
| Polk County | 142,865 | 68,708 | 2,766 | 214,339 | D +34.6 |
| Linn County | 66,071 | 35,708 | 1,331 | 103,110 | D +29.4 |
| Scott County | 43,137 | 29,394 | 949 | 73,480 | D +18.7 |
| Johnson County | 55,481 | 16,341 | 939 | 72,761 | D +53.8 |
| Black Hawk County | 31,565 | 21,150 | 689 | 53,404 | D +19.5 |
| Dallas County | 27,373 | 21,700 | 642 | 49,715 | D +11.4 |
| Dubuque County | 24,147 | 18,904 | 563 | 43,614 | D +12.0 |
| Story County | 27,239 | 15,393 | 558 | 43,190 | D +27.4 |
| Pottawattamie County | 17,865 | 16,813 | 453 | 35,131 | D +3.0 |
| Woodbury County | 16,864 | 17,521 | 449 | 34,834 | R +1.9 |
| Warren County | 13,118 | 12,833 | 339 | 26,290 | D +1.1 |
| Clinton County | 9,879 | 9,066 | 249 | 19,194 | D +4.2 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 10,398 | 8,187 | 243 | 18,828 | D +11.7 |
| Jasper County | 7,729 | 8,642 | 215 | 16,586 | R +5.5 |
| Marion County | 5,997 | 9,734 | 205 | 15,936 | R +23.4 |
| Sioux County | 2,711 | 12,965 | 205 | 15,881 | R +64.6 |
| Muscatine County | 8,155 | 7,327 | 202 | 15,684 | D +5.3 |
| Des Moines County | 8,271 | 7,018 | 199 | 15,488 | D +8.1 |
| Marshall County | 7,252 | 6,772 | 182 | 14,206 | D +3.4 |
| Webster County | 6,010 | 7,703 | 179 | 13,892 | R +12.2 |
| Lee County | 6,401 | 6,520 | 169 | 13,090 | R +0.9 |
| Boone County | 6,253 | 6,035 | 160 | 12,448 | D +1.8 |
| Benton County | 5,058 | 7,014 | 158 | 12,230 | R +16.0 |
| Wapello County | 5,467 | 6,493 | 156 | 12,116 | R +8.5 |
| Bremer County | 5,868 | 6,063 | 156 | 12,087 | R +1.6 |
| Plymouth County | 3,146 | 7,792 | 143 | 11,081 | R +41.9 |
| Winneshiek County | 5,635 | 4,418 | 131 | 10,184 | D +11.9 |
| Washington County | 4,300 | 5,226 | 124 | 9,650 | R +9.6 |
| Dickinson County | 3,439 | 5,598 | 119 | 9,156 | R +23.6 |
| Mahaska County | 2,679 | 6,345 | 118 | 9,142 | R +40.1 |
| Carroll County | 3,248 | 5,724 | 118 | 9,090 | R +27.2 |
| Jones County | 4,234 | 4,684 | 116 | 9,034 | R +5.0 |
| Buchanan County | 3,993 | 4,786 | 114 | 8,893 | R +8.9 |
| Cedar County | 4,209 | 4,345 | 112 | 8,666 | R +1.6 |
| Jackson County | 4,066 | 4,456 | 110 | 8,632 | R +4.5 |
| Poweshiek County | 4,212 | 4,040 | 108 | 8,360 | D +2.1 |
| Delaware County | 2,991 | 5,173 | 106 | 8,270 | R +26.4 |
| Fayette County | 3,622 | 4,519 | 105 | 8,246 | R +10.9 |
| Madison County | 3,291 | 4,778 | 106 | 8,175 | R +18.2 |
| Iowa County | 3,444 | 4,420 | 103 | 7,967 | R +12.3 |
| Henry County | 3,120 | 4,716 | 102 | 7,938 | R +20.1 |
| Clayton County | 3,298 | 4,435 | 101 | 7,834 | R +14.5 |
| Hardin County | 2,858 | 4,271 | 93 | 7,222 | R +19.6 |
| Tama County | 3,182 | 3,927 | 93 | 7,202 | R +10.3 |
| Clay County | 2,789 | 4,252 | 93 | 7,134 | R +20.5 |
| Jefferson County | 4,075 | 2,962 | 92 | 7,129 | D +15.6 |
| Kossuth County | 2,694 | 4,309 | 91 | 7,094 | R +22.8 |
| Butler County | 2,377 | 4,111 | 86 | 6,574 | R +26.4 |
| Mills County | 2,604 | 3,827 | 83 | 6,514 | R +18.8 |
| Harrison County | 2,358 | 3,870 | 81 | 6,309 | R +24.0 |
| Floyd County | 2,895 | 3,330 | 81 | 6,306 | R +6.9 |
| Hamilton County | 2,870 | 3,333 | 81 | 6,284 | R +7.4 |
| Allamakee County | 2,522 | 3,574 | 80 | 6,176 | R +17.0 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,481 | 3,581 | 80 | 6,142 | R +17.9 |
| O'Brien County | 1,578 | 4,411 | 78 | 6,067 | R +46.7 |
| Page County | 2,125 | 3,775 | 78 | 5,978 | R +27.6 |
| Grundy County | 2,090 | 3,713 | 75 | 5,878 | R +27.6 |
| Cass County | 2,257 | 3,489 | 74 | 5,820 | R +21.2 |
| Lyon County | 1,042 | 4,425 | 71 | 5,538 | R +61.1 |
| Guthrie County | 2,065 | 3,272 | 70 | 5,407 | R +22.3 |
| Crawford County | 1,995 | 3,245 | 68 | 5,308 | R +23.5 |
| Appanoose County | 1,878 | 3,355 | 68 | 5,301 | R +27.9 |
| Chickasaw County | 2,123 | 3,043 | 68 | 5,234 | R +17.6 |
| Shelby County | 1,787 | 3,368 | 67 | 5,222 | R +30.3 |
| Cherokee County | 1,735 | 3,289 | 66 | 5,090 | R +30.5 |
| Union County | 2,186 | 2,774 | 65 | 5,025 | R +11.7 |
| Hancock County | 1,624 | 3,120 | 62 | 4,806 | R +31.1 |
| Wright County | 1,809 | 2,921 | 62 | 4,792 | R +23.2 |
| Winnebago County | 1,999 | 2,655 | 61 | 4,715 | R +13.9 |
| Mitchell County | 1,916 | 2,711 | 61 | 4,688 | R +16.9 |
| Sac County | 1,343 | 3,039 | 58 | 4,440 | R +38.2 |
| Calhoun County | 1,618 | 2,607 | 55 | 4,280 | R +23.1 |
| Keokuk County | 1,369 | 2,813 | 55 | 4,237 | R +34.1 |
| Humboldt County | 1,357 | 2,775 | 54 | 4,186 | R +33.9 |
| Montgomery County | 1,452 | 2,568 | 52 | 4,072 | R +27.4 |
| Louisa County | 1,704 | 2,284 | 53 | 4,041 | R +14.3 |
| Franklin County | 1,588 | 2,354 | 52 | 3,994 | R +19.2 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,367 | 2,572 | 51 | 3,990 | R +30.2 |
| Greene County | 1,658 | 2,262 | 52 | 3,972 | R +15.2 |
| Emmet County | 1,388 | 2,397 | 50 | 3,835 | R +26.3 |
| Howard County | 1,647 | 2,111 | 48 | 3,806 | R +12.2 |
| Lucas County | 1,418 | 2,316 | 48 | 3,782 | R +23.8 |
| Clarke County | 1,461 | 2,203 | 48 | 3,712 | R +20.0 |
| Monona County | 1,333 | 2,320 | 48 | 3,701 | R +26.7 |
| Worth County | 1,592 | 1,856 | 45 | 3,493 | R +7.6 |
| Adair County | 1,297 | 2,065 | 44 | 3,406 | R +22.5 |
| Davis County | 1,035 | 2,246 | 43 | 3,324 | R +36.4 |
| Monroe County | 1,162 | 2,108 | 42 | 3,312 | R +28.6 |
| Decatur County | 1,085 | 2,018 | 41 | 3,144 | R +29.7 |
| Van Buren County | 1,017 | 1,981 | 40 | 3,038 | R +31.8 |
| Pocahontas County | 920 | 2,072 | 40 | 3,032 | R +38.0 |
| Ida County | 1,019 | 1,950 | 39 | 3,008 | R +30.9 |
| Fremont County | 1,013 | 1,909 | 38 | 2,960 | R +30.3 |
| Audubon County | 1,099 | 1,521 | 34 | 2,654 | R +15.9 |
| Wayne County | 682 | 1,894 | 34 | 2,610 | R +46.5 |
| Osceola County | 538 | 2,012 | 32 | 2,582 | R +57.1 |
| Taylor County | 687 | 1,791 | 32 | 2,510 | R +44.0 |
| Ringgold County | 790 | 1,412 | 29 | 2,231 | R +27.9 |
| Adams County | 681 | 1,069 | 22 | 1,772 | R +21.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +14.7 and R +1.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +6.8 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +6.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +14.7 and R +1.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Wettach | Cournoyer | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||