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2026 forecast · Alabama 4th

Robert Aderholt is all but certain to win Alabama's 4th District.

Amanda Pusczek vs Robert Aderholt. The model has Aderholt ahead by 66.7 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe RModel R +66.7Updated October 22, 2026
Amanda Pusczek
Democrat
16.7%
40,412 projected votes
Robert Aderholt
Republican
83.3%
202,098 projected votes
100%Aderholt
0%Pusczek
Aderholt all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Aderholt wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe R100% chance for Aderholt
Model marginR +66.7No polls in the race
80 percent rangeR +61.9 to R +71.12,000 simulations
Projected votes242,510Aderholt 83.3%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Alabama districts

7 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Amanda PusczekDemocrat · 0% to win
16.7%
Robert AderholtRepublican · 100% to win
83.3%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

242,510 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Robert Aderholt R202,09883.3%
Amanda Pusczek D40,41216.7%
Total242,510100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%0% Pusczek100% Aderholt15 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Alabama governor polling average
34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%AugSepOct40.0Jones51.2Tuberville
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily NewsOct 17 · 500 LV · Gold98%Tuberville +11.2
Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R)Sep 25 · 800 RV · C+1.6%Tuberville +13.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Aderholt +66.7
Chance of winning
Amanda Pusczek0%
Robert Aderholt100%
Simulated vote
Amanda Pusczek16.7%
Robert Aderholt83.3%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +66.0
FundamentalsR +66.7
With pollsR +66.6
Early vote turnoutR +0.1
With early voteR +66.7

Alabama has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +80R +80Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +66.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +66.7With pollsno pollsR +66.6With early voteturnout so farR +66.7
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.