2026 forecast ยท Texas Commissioner Of The General Land Office

Dawn Buckingham is favored to win Texas's commissioner of the general land office race.

Benjamin Flores vs Dawn Buckingham, with Dawn Buckingham running again. The model has Buckingham ahead by 4.3 points, with a 83 percent chance of winning.

Lean RModel R +4.3Polls R +5.8Updated October 22, 2026
Benjamin Flores
Democrat
45.6%
4,562,143 projected votes
Dawn Buckingham
Republican
49.9%
4,989,387 projected votes
83%Buckingham
17%Flores
Buckingham favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Buckingham wins about 83 of 100

Texas Commissioner Of The General Land Office by county

Anderson CountyAndrews CountyAngelina CountyAransas CountyArcher CountyArmstrong CountyAtascosa CountyAustin CountyBailey CountyBandera CountyBastrop CountyBaylor CountyBee CountyBell CountyBexar CountyBlanco CountyBorden CountyBosque CountyBowie CountyBrazoria CountyBrazos CountyBrewster CountyBriscoe CountyBrooks CountyBrown CountyBurleson CountyBurnet CountyCaldwell CountyCalhoun CountyCallahan CountyCameron CountyCamp CountyCarson CountyCass CountyCastro CountyChambers CountyCherokee CountyChildress CountyClay CountyCochran CountyCoke CountyColeman CountyCollin CountyCollingsworth CountyColorado CountyComal CountyComanche CountyConcho CountyCooke CountyCoryell CountyCottle CountyCrane CountyCrockett CountyCrosby CountyCulberson CountyDallam CountyDallas CountyDawson CountyDeaf Smith CountyDelta CountyDenton CountyDeWitt CountyDickens CountyDimmit CountyDonley CountyDuval CountyEastland CountyEctor CountyEdwards CountyEllis CountyEl Paso CountyErath CountyFalls CountyFannin CountyFayette CountyFisher CountyFloyd CountyFoard CountyFort Bend CountyFranklin CountyFreestone CountyFrio CountyGaines CountyGalveston CountyGarza CountyGillespie CountyGlasscock CountyGoliad CountyGonzales CountyGray CountyGrayson CountyGregg CountyGrimes CountyGuadalupe CountyHale CountyHall CountyHamilton CountyHansford CountyHardeman CountyHardin CountyHarris CountyHarrison CountyHartley CountyHaskell CountyHays CountyHemphill CountyHenderson CountyHidalgo CountyHill CountyHockley CountyHood CountyHopkins CountyHouston CountyHoward CountyHudspeth CountyHunt CountyHutchinson CountyIrion CountyJack CountyJackson CountyJasper CountyJeff Davis CountyJefferson CountyJim Hogg CountyJim Wells CountyJohnson CountyJones CountyKarnes CountyKaufman CountyKendall CountyKenedy CountyKent CountyKerr CountyKimble CountyKing CountyKinney CountyKleberg CountyKnox CountyLamar CountyLamb CountyLampasas CountyLa Salle CountyLavaca CountyLee CountyLeon CountyLiberty CountyLimestone CountyLipscomb CountyLive Oak CountyLlano CountyLoving CountyLubbock CountyLynn CountyMcCulloch CountyMcLennan CountyMcMullen CountyMadison CountyMarion CountyMartin CountyMason CountyMatagorda CountyMaverick CountyMedina CountyMenard CountyMidland CountyMilam CountyMills CountyMitchell CountyMontague CountyMontgomery CountyMoore CountyMorris CountyMotley CountyNacogdoches CountyNavarro CountyNewton CountyNolan CountyNueces CountyOchiltree CountyOldham CountyOrange CountyPalo Pinto CountyPanola CountyParker CountyParmer CountyPecos CountyPolk CountyPotter CountyPresidio CountyRains CountyRandall CountyReagan CountyReal CountyRed River CountyReeves CountyRefugio CountyRoberts CountyRobertson CountyRockwall CountyRunnels CountyRusk CountySabine CountySan Augustine CountySan Jacinto CountySan Patricio CountySan Saba CountySchleicher CountyScurry CountyShackelford CountyShelby CountySherman CountySmith CountySomervell CountyStarr CountyStephens CountySterling CountyStonewall CountySutton CountySwisher CountyTarrant CountyTaylor CountyTerrell CountyTerry CountyThrockmorton CountyTitus CountyTom Green CountyTravis CountyTrinity CountyTyler CountyUpshur CountyUpton CountyUvalde CountyVal Verde CountyVan Zandt CountyVictoria CountyWalker CountyWaller CountyWard CountyWashington CountyWebb CountyWharton CountyWheeler CountyWichita CountyWilbarger CountyWillacy CountyWilliamson CountyWilson CountyWinkler CountyWise CountyWood CountyYoakum CountyYoung CountyZapata CountyZavala CountyHarrisDallasBexarTravisCollinFort BendWilliamsonMontgomeryEl PasoHidalgoBrazoriaBell
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom ยท arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Travis County: Flores +294,525Dallas County: Flores +284,375Harris County: Flores +248,396Bexar County: Flores +156,475El Paso County: Flores +79,315Hidalgo County: Flores +38,593Fort Bend County: Flores +31,928Tarrant County: Flores +20,689Williamson County: Flores +16,468Hays County: Flores +16,447Webb County: Flores +15,480Cameron County: Flores +13,886Starr County: Flores +2,653Maverick County: Flores +1,598Zavala County: Flores +1,142Presidio County: Flores +911Dimmit County: Flores +860Willacy County: Flores +826Brooks County: Flores +691Duval County: Flores +650Jim Hogg County: Flores +468Zapata County: Flores +308Montgomery County: Buckingham +110,829Parker County: Buckingham +48,051Smith County: Buckingham +39,633Lubbock County: Buckingham +37,793Comal County: Buckingham +37,469Johnson County: Buckingham +34,531Randall County: Buckingham +33,337Galveston County: Buckingham +30,770Midland County: Buckingham +29,654Grayson County: Buckingham +29,223Denton County: Buckingham +28,483Ellis County: Buckingham +28,297Brazoria County: Buckingham +25,728McLennan County: Buckingham +23,576Taylor County: Buckingham +23,362Hunt County: Buckingham +21,708Wise County: Buckingham +21,363Henderson County: Buckingham +21,058Rockwall County: Buckingham +20,943Orange County: Buckingham +20,093Hood County: Buckingham +19,466Guadalupe County: Buckingham +18,621Kaufman County: Buckingham +18,299Van Zandt County: Buckingham +17,751Tom Green County: Buckingham +17,679Ector County: Buckingham +17,610Hardin County: Buckingham +17,329Gregg County: Buckingham +16,652Liberty County: Buckingham +16,268Wichita County: Buckingham +15,177Wood County: Buckingham +14,657Angelina County: Buckingham +14,610Bowie County: Buckingham +14,297Kendall County: Buckingham +13,969Kerr County: Buckingham +13,350Burnet County: Buckingham +12,824Harrison County: Buckingham +12,755Victoria County: Buckingham +12,611Brazos County: Buckingham +12,609Chambers County: Buckingham +12,584Bell County: Buckingham +12,120Cooke County: Buckingham +11,737Polk County: Buckingham +11,590Upshur County: Buckingham +11,578Wilson County: Buckingham +11,509Potter County: Buckingham +11,463Collin County: Buckingham +11,461Rusk County: Buckingham +11,063Lamar County: Buckingham +11,006Cherokee County: Buckingham +10,948Anderson County: Buckingham +10,843Brown County: Buckingham +10,716Erath County: Buckingham +10,461Fannin County: Buckingham +9,379Walker County: Buckingham +8,861Washington County: Buckingham +8,837Hill County: Buckingham +8,813Jasper County: Buckingham +8,782Medina County: Buckingham +8,760Navarro County: Buckingham +8,695Gillespie County: Buckingham +8,657Hopkins County: Buckingham +8,571Coryell County: Buckingham +8,346Nacogdoches County: Buckingham +8,245Austin County: Buckingham +8,080Palo Pinto County: Buckingham +7,650Cass County: Buckingham +7,647Llano County: Buckingham +7,166Grimes County: Buckingham +7,159Bandera County: Buckingham +7,158Fayette County: Buckingham +7,125Wharton County: Buckingham +7,074Montague County: Buckingham +7,065San Jacinto County: Buckingham +6,887Lavaca County: Buckingham +6,762San Patricio County: Buckingham +6,737Aransas County: Buckingham +6,337Panola County: Buckingham +6,284Tyler County: Buckingham +6,008Atascosa County: Buckingham +5,984Waller County: Buckingham +5,953Leon County: Buckingham +5,902Lampasas County: Buckingham +5,674Matagorda County: Buckingham +5,637Hutchinson County: Buckingham +5,524Eastland County: Buckingham +5,390Bosque County: Buckingham +5,372Young County: Buckingham +5,367Shelby County: Buckingham +5,334Gray County: Buckingham +5,312Milam County: Buckingham +5,244Freestone County: Buckingham +5,135Burleson County: Buckingham +5,020Howard County: Buckingham +4,999Colorado County: Buckingham +4,872Titus County: Buckingham +4,841Hale County: Buckingham +4,801Callahan County: Buckingham +4,666Houston County: Buckingham +4,628DeWitt County: Buckingham +4,531Jones County: Buckingham +4,509Hockley County: Buckingham +4,401Bastrop County: Buckingham +4,346Lee County: Buckingham +4,339Limestone County: Buckingham +4,312Gaines County: Buckingham +4,175Rains County: Buckingham +4,059Trinity County: Buckingham +4,037Comanche County: Buckingham +4,005Clay County: Buckingham +3,865Jackson County: Buckingham +3,781Sabine County: Buckingham +3,681Scurry County: Buckingham +3,677Blanco County: Buckingham +3,641Gonzales County: Buckingham +3,633Andrews County: Buckingham +3,573Robertson County: Buckingham +3,361Archer County: Buckingham +3,358Calhoun County: Buckingham +3,305Newton County: Buckingham +3,158Franklin County: Buckingham +3,064Live Oak County: Buckingham +3,034Moore County: Buckingham +2,999Madison County: Buckingham +2,961Somervell County: Buckingham +2,950Nueces County: Buckingham +2,922Red River County: Buckingham +2,904Jack County: Buckingham +2,836Bee County: Buckingham +2,823Coleman County: Buckingham +2,784Runnels County: Buckingham +2,770Nolan County: Buckingham +2,723Stephens County: Buckingham +2,689Hamilton County: Buckingham +2,642Karnes County: Buckingham +2,504Falls County: Buckingham +2,486Camp County: Buckingham +2,402Jefferson County: Buckingham +2,396Wilbarger County: Buckingham +2,370Lamb County: Buckingham +2,338Morris County: Buckingham +2,234McCulloch County: Buckingham +2,120Carson County: Buckingham +2,109Ochiltree County: Buckingham +2,047Uvalde County: Buckingham +2,013Goliad County: Buckingham +1,999Marion County: Buckingham +1,997Deaf Smith County: Buckingham +1,996Terry County: Buckingham +1,977Ward County: Buckingham +1,925Dawson County: Buckingham +1,889San Saba County: Buckingham +1,862San Augustine County: Buckingham +1,799Mills County: Buckingham +1,790Mitchell County: Buckingham +1,713Wheeler County: Buckingham +1,584Parmer County: Buckingham +1,583Kimble County: Buckingham +1,569Childress County: Buckingham +1,565Pecos County: Buckingham +1,537Val Verde County: Buckingham +1,530Delta County: Buckingham +1,492Hartley County: Buckingham +1,453Hansford County: Buckingham +1,432Lynn County: Buckingham +1,423Yoakum County: Buckingham +1,419Haskell County: Buckingham +1,385Mason County: Buckingham +1,357Martin County: Buckingham +1,252Swisher County: Buckingham +1,227Coke County: Buckingham +1,203Shackelford County: Buckingham +1,153Winkler County: Buckingham +1,147Baylor County: Buckingham +1,134Floyd County: Buckingham +1,106Donley County: Buckingham +1,093Castro County: Buckingham +1,076Real County: Buckingham +1,075Hemphill County: Buckingham +1,052Dallam County: Buckingham +1,040Refugio County: Buckingham +1,014Garza County: Buckingham +1,006Bailey County: Buckingham +1,005Fisher County: Buckingham +963Caldwell County: Buckingham +930Lipscomb County: Buckingham +850Crane County: Buckingham +849Hardeman County: Buckingham +848Upton County: Buckingham +833Armstrong County: Buckingham +786Knox County: Buckingham +773Concho County: Buckingham +772Sutton County: Buckingham +769Collingsworth County: Buckingham +766Crosby County: Buckingham +763Hall County: Buckingham +734Sherman County: Buckingham +664Oldham County: Buckingham +656Schleicher County: Buckingham +615Crockett County: Buckingham +613Throckmorton County: Buckingham +603Kinney County: Buckingham +602Dickens County: Buckingham +584Menard County: Buckingham +565Reagan County: Buckingham +547Jim Wells County: Buckingham +543Irion County: Buckingham +517Briscoe County: Buckingham +508Motley County: Buckingham +482Cochran County: Buckingham +472Edwards County: Buckingham +469Glasscock County: Buckingham +466Reeves County: Buckingham +436Sterling County: Buckingham +424Stonewall County: Buckingham +396Cottle County: Buckingham +390Roberts County: Buckingham +388Hudspeth County: Buckingham +328Foard County: Buckingham +310Kleberg County: Buckingham +303Kent County: Buckingham +282Borden County: Buckingham +275McMullen County: Buckingham +215Terrell County: Buckingham +186Jeff Davis County: Buckingham +174King County: Buckingham +95La Salle County: Buckingham +77Frio County: Buckingham +47Culberson County: Buckingham +31Kenedy County: Buckingham +20Loving County: Buckingham +19
Flores +1,226,684 net votes from 22 countiesStatewide R +4.3, a 427,234 vote marginBuckingham +1,653,918 net votes from 231 counties

Projected statewide vote

9,998,925 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Dawn Buckingham R4,989,38749.9%
Benjamin Flores D4,562,14345.6%
Neill Snider447,3944.5%
Total9,998,925100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

254 counties
CountyFloresBuckinghamOtherTotalMargin
Statewide4,562,1484,989,382447,3869,998,916R +4.3
Harris County785,404537,00861,9421,384,354D +17.9
Dallas County513,852229,47734,817778,146D +36.5
Tarrant County354,414333,72532,233720,372D +2.9
Bexar County405,412248,93730,650684,999D +22.8
Travis County410,414115,88924,652550,955D +53.5
Collin County203,565215,02619,607438,198R +2.6
Denton County167,615196,09817,037380,750R +7.5
Fort Bend County162,605130,67713,736307,018D +10.4
Williamson County135,417118,94911,915266,281D +6.2
Montgomery County65,396176,22511,317252,938R +43.8
El Paso County150,57371,25810,391232,222D +34.2
Hidalgo County112,78174,1888,757195,726D +19.7
Brazoria County51,95877,6866,072135,716R +19.0
Galveston County49,04279,8126,036134,890R +22.8
Bell County48,71960,8395,132114,690R +10.6
Nueces County52,30855,2305,037112,575R +2.6
Hays County60,60644,1594,908109,673D +15.0
Lubbock County33,02170,8144,863108,698R +34.8
Cameron County57,58643,7004,745106,031D +13.1
Smith County23,19762,8304,03090,057R +44.0
McLennan County30,59254,1683,97088,730R +26.6
Comal County22,53660,0053,86686,407R +43.4
Ellis County24,60452,9013,62981,134R +34.9
Brazos County32,28944,8983,61580,802R +15.6
Jefferson County35,56837,9643,44476,976R +3.1
Parker County11,26559,3163,30673,887R +65.0
Guadalupe County24,24842,8693,14370,260R +26.5
Johnson County15,26849,7993,04968,116R +50.7
Webb County36,47920,9992,69260,170D +25.7
Randall County10,72644,0632,56757,356R +58.1
Kaufman County17,35435,6532,48355,490R +33.0
Grayson County11,36440,5872,43354,384R +53.7
Rockwall County13,94634,8892,28751,122R +41.0
Midland County9,47639,1302,27750,883R +58.3
Taylor County11,72735,0892,19449,010R +47.7
Gregg County11,10827,7601,82140,689R +40.9
Wichita County11,63426,8111,80040,245R +37.7
Tom Green County10,23127,9101,78639,927R +44.3
Hunt County7,50229,2101,71938,431R +56.5
Ector County8,40126,0111,61236,024R +48.9
Bastrop County14,65318,9991,57635,228R +12.3
Henderson County5,42526,4831,49433,402R +63.0
Bowie County8,27422,5711,44532,290R +44.3
Hood County5,12524,5911,39131,107R +62.6
Victoria County8,43121,0421,38030,853R +40.9
Orange County4,62024,7131,37330,706R +65.4
Wise County3,96125,3241,37130,656R +69.7
Angelina County6,91221,5221,33229,766R +49.1
Potter County8,37219,8351,32129,528R +38.8
Liberty County4,44420,7121,17926,335R +61.8
Harrison County5,86718,6221,14725,636R +49.8
Kerr County5,31318,6631,12325,099R +53.2
Kendall County4,86618,8351,11024,811R +56.3
Van Zandt County2,71920,4701,08624,275R +73.1
Walker County7,12115,9821,08324,186R +36.6
Burnet County5,00817,8321,07023,910R +53.6
Hardin County2,55019,8791,05123,480R +73.8
Nacogdoches County6,74614,9911,01822,755R +36.2
Coryell County6,66615,0121,01622,694R +36.8
Wilson County5,02016,5291,00922,558R +51.0
San Patricio County7,28714,02499822,309R +30.2
Waller County7,32913,28296521,576R +27.6
Wood County2,74117,39894421,083R +69.5
Medina County5,56214,32293120,815R +42.1
Polk County3,94515,53591220,392R +56.8
Chambers County2,97615,56086819,404R +64.9
Rusk County3,47814,54184418,863R +58.6
Lamar County3,37414,38083218,586R +59.2
Anderson County3,27514,11881518,208R +59.5
Cherokee County2,97213,92079217,684R +61.9
Cooke County2,48214,21978117,482R +67.1
Navarro County3,87512,57077117,216R +50.5
Upshur County2,24313,82175216,816R +68.8
Erath County2,45212,91371916,084R +65.0
Washington County3,18112,01871215,911R +55.5
Atascosa County4,56610,55070815,824R +37.8
Brown County1,70712,42366214,792R +72.4
Caldwell County6,4717,40165014,522R +6.4
Gillespie County2,58711,24464814,479R +59.8
Wharton County3,36010,43464614,440R +49.0
Starr County8,1825,52964314,354D +18.5
Hopkins County2,53411,10563914,278R +60.0
Fannin County2,00311,38262714,012R +66.9
Hill County2,27811,09162713,996R +63.0
Jasper County1,97810,76059613,334R +65.9
Maverick County7,0975,49959013,186D +12.1
Austin County2,13910,21957912,937R +62.5
Val Verde County5,3476,87757212,796R +12.0
Jim Wells County5,4986,04154112,080R +4.5
Llano County2,1779,34354012,060R +59.4
Cass County1,8609,50753311,900R +64.3
Matagorda County2,8078,44452711,778R +47.9
Grimes County2,0029,16152311,686R +61.3
Fayette County2,0049,12952111,654R +61.1
Bandera County1,9539,11151811,582R +61.8
Aransas County2,2588,59550811,361R +55.8
Palo Pinto County1,5759,22550511,305R +67.7
San Jacinto County1,8638,75049711,110R +62.0
Milam County2,0317,2754369,742R +53.8
Lampasas County1,7567,4304309,616R +59.0
Panola County1,4497,7334319,613R +65.4
Kleberg County4,4154,7184279,560R +3.2
Montague County8667,9314129,209R +76.7
Lavaca County9757,7374089,120R +74.2
Titus County1,8526,6934018,946R +54.1
Uvalde County3,2185,2313958,844R +22.8
Howard County1,6536,6523898,694R +57.5
Bee County2,7125,5353868,633R +32.7
Colorado County1,6766,5483858,609R +56.6
Hale County1,6416,4423788,461R +56.7
Shelby County1,3696,7033788,450R +63.1
Houston County1,6896,3173768,382R +55.2
Tyler County9987,0063758,379R +71.7
Bosque County1,2866,6583728,316R +64.6
Limestone County1,6815,9933598,033R +53.7
Burleson County1,2346,2543507,838R +64.0
Freestone County1,1506,2853487,783R +66.0
Leon County6986,6003427,640R +77.2
Lee County1,2915,6303257,246R +59.9
Eastland County7546,1443247,222R +74.6
Young County7576,1243237,204R +74.5
Hutchinson County6766,2003227,198R +76.7
Blanco County1,5725,2133177,102R +51.3
DeWitt County1,1155,6463177,078R +64.0
Robertson County1,6274,9883106,925R +48.5
Calhoun County1,6264,9313076,864R +48.1
Hockley County1,0675,4683076,842R +64.3
Gray County5815,8933036,777R +78.4
Gonzales County1,3464,9792966,621R +54.9
Jones County8265,3352896,450R +69.9
Trinity County9755,0122816,268R +64.4
Callahan County5675,2332716,071R +76.8
Falls County1,4893,9752565,720R +43.5
Rains County6854,7442555,684R +71.4
Comanche County6644,6692505,583R +71.7
Jackson County7454,5262475,518R +68.5
Willacy County2,9662,1402395,345D +15.4
Gaines County3784,5532315,162R +80.9
Scurry County5964,2732285,097R +72.1
Clay County4804,3452265,051R +76.5
Newton County8233,9812265,030R +62.8
Andrews County6014,1742244,999R +71.5
Red River County9073,8112224,940R +58.8
Sabine County4684,1492174,834R +76.2
Karnes County1,0183,5222124,752R +52.7
Frio County2,2362,2832114,730R +1.0
Madison County7783,7392124,729R +62.6
Morris County1,1113,3452084,664R +47.9
Nolan County8553,5782084,641R +58.7
Moore County7023,7012064,609R +65.1
Camp County9813,3832044,568R +52.6
Franklin County6303,6942024,526R +67.7
Live Oak County6253,6592014,485R +67.6
Somervell County6633,6132004,476R +65.9
Archer County3773,7351944,306R +78.0
Brewster County2,0282,0281904,246Even
Pecos County1,2212,7581854,164R +36.9
Wilbarger County7413,1111804,032R +58.8
Zapata County2,0751,7671804,022D +7.7
Marion County9202,9171804,017R +49.7
Deaf Smith County8912,8871763,954R +50.5
Duval County2,2061,5561763,938D +16.5
Hamilton County5153,1571723,844R +68.7
Lamb County5992,9371653,701R +63.2
Runnels County3633,1331643,660R +75.7
Coleman County3313,1151623,608R +77.2
Goliad County6852,6841573,526R +56.7
Jack County2623,0981583,518R +80.7
Stephens County2562,9451503,351R +80.2
San Augustine County6752,4741473,296R +54.6
Dawson County5942,4831433,220R +58.6
Ward County5482,4731413,162R +60.8
Terry County5122,4891413,142R +62.9
Dimmit County1,9221,0621403,124D +27.5
Zavala County2,0368941383,068D +37.2
McCulloch County3762,4961343,006R +70.5
Reeves County1,2171,6531353,005R +14.5
Carson County2282,3371212,686R +78.5
Refugio County7661,7801192,665R +38.1
Ochiltree County2092,2561152,580R +79.3
Mitchell County3012,0141092,424R +70.7
San Saba County2192,0811072,407R +77.4
Brooks County1,4697781052,352D +29.4
Mills County2091,9991042,312R +77.4
Parmer County2971,8801022,279R +69.5
Delta County3311,8231002,254R +66.2
Mason County3691,726992,194R +61.9
Childress County2201,785932,098R +74.6
Kimble County2151,784942,093R +75.0
Lynn County2861,709932,088R +68.1
Swisher County3771,604932,074R +59.2
Haskell County2741,659912,024R +68.4
Yoakum County2561,675902,021R +70.2
La Salle County919996902,005R +3.8
Wheeler County1381,722861,946R +81.4
Presidio County1,361450851,896D +48.1
Castro County3461,422831,851R +58.1
Hartley County1471,600811,828R +79.5
Floyd County2801,386781,744R +63.4
Hansford County1171,549781,744R +82.1
Winkler County2551,402791,736R +66.1
Martin County2001,452781,730R +72.4
Bailey County2971,302751,674R +60.0
Crosby County3791,142711,592R +48.0
Jim Hogg County984516701,570D +29.8
Real County2101,285701,565R +68.6
Fisher County2621,225691,556R +61.9
Coke County1411,344691,554R +77.4
Baylor County1441,278661,488R +76.2
Garza County2051,211661,482R +67.9
Shackelford County1131,266651,444R +79.9
Hemphill County1601,212641,436R +73.2
Donley County1321,225631,420R +77.0
Dallam County1391,179611,379R +75.4
Kinney County318920581,296R +46.5
Crockett County290903571,250R +49.1
Crane County1661,015561,237R +68.6
Sutton County203972551,230R +62.5
Hardeman County1561,004541,214R +69.8
Knox County176949531,178R +65.7
Upton County128961511,140R +73.1
Concho County150922501,122R +68.8
Lipscomb County91941481,080R +78.7
Jeff Davis County416590461,052R +16.6
Collingsworth County108874461,028R +74.5
Hall County123857451,025R +71.6
Schleicher County175790451,010R +60.9
Armstrong County6685242960R +81.8
Hudspeth County28761542944R +34.8
Menard County13469939872R +64.8
Dickens County10969337839R +69.6
Oldham County6472036820R +80.0
Reagan County11866537820R +66.7
Sherman County5772136814R +81.6
Throckmorton County6066333756R +79.8
Culberson County33636733736R +4.2
Cochran County11558733735R +64.2
Irion County7959631706R +73.1
Edwards County8054929658R +71.3
Briscoe County4755528630R +80.7
Stonewall County8748328598R +66.3
Motley County3251426572R +84.3
Cottle County7546526566R +69.0
Glasscock County2949525549R +84.8
Sterling County3045422506R +83.8
Foard County8639622504R +61.6
Roberts County1139919429R +90.5
Terrell County9127718386R +48.2
Kent County3832018376R +75.1
Borden County1629115322R +85.4
McMullen County2223713272R +79.1
King County51005110R +87.0
Kenedy County2242266R +29.9
Loving County322126R +74.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +1.5R +10.1R +4.3

80 percent of simulations fall between D +1.5 and R +10.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorR +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +0.6
Blend of every legD +1.0
With incumbency and primary unityR +2.0
With polls, 65% weightR +4.3

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +1.5 and R +10.1.

Polls of the race

6 polls
R+12R+8R+4EvenAugSepOctFlores aheadBuckingham aheadActiVote, 400, R +3.8, 5 days agoUniversity of Houston Hobby School, 2,000, R +7.0, 8 days agoTexas Public Opinion Research, 1,007, R +3.0, 30 days agoTexas Southern University (Barbara Jordan Center), 1,800, R +8.0, 33 days agoTexas Public Opinion Research, 1,000, R +4.0, 59 days agoTexas Southern University, 1,200, R +5.0, 84 days agoR +5.9poll trendR +5.8average
PollsterSampleEndedFloresBuckinghamMargin
ActiVote400 LV2026-10-1748.151.9R +3.8
University of Houston Hobby School2,000 LV2026-10-144047R +7.0
Texas Public Opinion Research1,007 LV2026-09-224346R +3.0
Texas Southern University (Barbara Jordan Center)1,800 LV2026-09-193947R +8.0
Texas Public Opinion Research1,000 LV2026-08-244044R +4.0
Texas Southern University1,200 LV2026-07-304045R +5.0