2026 ballot measure forecast
California Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
Requires photo ID to vote in person, an ID number on mail ballots, and citizenship verification for voter registration. The forecast has Yes at 46.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 24% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
24%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
46.8%80% range 41 to 53
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
45.1%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 54.4% Yes
- Polls
- 45.1% Yes
- Forecast
- 46.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Republican backed initiative; Democrats strongly opposed. Likely federal preemption litigation.
Also on the California ballot
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Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
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Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
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Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
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Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
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Proposition 37
Loans for middle income buyers of new homes
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Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
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Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
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Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
8%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +442,238 net votes from 35 countiesStatewide No +6.4, a 811,330 vote marginNo +1,253,568 net votes from 23 counties
Projected vote
12,687,172 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5,937,921 | 46.8% |
| No | 6,749,251 | 53.2% |
| Total | 12,687,172 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | 1,275,230 | 1,689,660 | 2,964,890 | 43.0% |
| San Diego County | 570,088 | 608,848 | 1,178,936 | 48.4% |
| Orange County | 579,690 | 518,814 | 1,098,504 | 52.8% |
| Riverside County | 389,404 | 332,118 | 721,522 | 54.0% |
| Santa Clara County | 248,136 | 365,368 | 613,504 | 40.4% |
| San Bernardino County | 313,903 | 265,006 | 578,909 | 54.2% |
| Alameda County | 195,845 | 362,693 | 558,538 | 35.1% |
| Sacramento County | 255,214 | 283,385 | 538,599 | 47.4% |
| Contra Costa County | 177,106 | 252,571 | 429,677 | 41.2% |
| San Francisco County | 101,382 | 235,286 | 336,668 | 30.1% |
| Ventura County | 150,410 | 157,352 | 307,762 | 48.9% |
| San Mateo County | 99,702 | 172,623 | 272,325 | 36.6% |
| Fresno County | 144,443 | 118,556 | 262,999 | 54.9% |
| Kern County | 133,417 | 88,830 | 222,247 | 60.0% |
| San Joaquin County | 113,450 | 97,195 | 210,645 | 53.9% |
| Sonoma County | 78,952 | 127,726 | 206,678 | 38.2% |
| Placer County | 106,007 | 82,665 | 188,672 | 56.2% |
| Stanislaus County | 86,893 | 65,731 | 152,624 | 56.9% |
| Solano County | 70,321 | 81,421 | 151,742 | 46.3% |
| Santa Barbara County | 67,575 | 82,169 | 149,744 | 45.1% |
| San Luis Obispo County | 62,427 | 61,886 | 124,313 | 50.2% |
| Marin County | 37,458 | 83,470 | 120,928 | 31.0% |
| Monterey County | 51,947 | 65,910 | 117,857 | 44.1% |
| Santa Cruz County | 38,665 | 72,354 | 111,019 | 34.8% |
| Tulare County | 64,837 | 43,361 | 108,198 | 59.9% |
| El Dorado County | 51,848 | 38,715 | 90,563 | 57.3% |
| Butte County | 42,419 | 35,368 | 77,787 | 54.5% |
| Yolo County | 32,329 | 44,992 | 77,321 | 41.8% |
| Shasta County | 46,266 | 25,000 | 71,266 | 64.9% |
| Merced County | 36,641 | 30,272 | 66,913 | 54.8% |
| Napa County | 22,689 | 30,922 | 53,611 | 42.3% |
| Humboldt County | 23,269 | 29,122 | 52,391 | 44.4% |
| Nevada County | 25,367 | 25,616 | 50,983 | 49.8% |
| Madera County | 25,468 | 17,008 | 42,476 | 60.0% |
| Imperial County | 20,992 | 18,020 | 39,012 | 53.8% |
| Kings County | 20,172 | 13,115 | 33,287 | 60.6% |
| Mendocino County | 14,556 | 17,830 | 32,386 | 44.9% |
| Sutter County | 19,491 | 11,308 | 30,799 | 63.3% |
| Tuolumne County | 14,254 | 9,393 | 23,647 | 60.3% |
| Yuba County | 14,322 | 8,944 | 23,266 | 61.6% |
| Lake County | 11,816 | 10,061 | 21,877 | 54.0% |
| San Benito County | 10,739 | 10,870 | 21,609 | 49.7% |
| Tehama County | 14,292 | 7,153 | 21,445 | 66.6% |
| Calaveras County | 13,290 | 8,059 | 21,349 | 62.3% |
| Amador County | 11,514 | 7,015 | 18,529 | 62.1% |
| Siskiyou County | 10,565 | 7,183 | 17,748 | 59.5% |
| Lassen County | 6,688 | 2,746 | 9,434 | 70.9% |
| Del Norte County | 5,215 | 3,684 | 8,899 | 58.6% |
| Plumas County | 4,959 | 3,473 | 8,432 | 58.8% |
| Glenn County | 5,332 | 2,949 | 8,281 | 64.4% |
| Mariposa County | 4,690 | 3,126 | 7,816 | 60.0% |
| Inyo County | 4,094 | 3,423 | 7,517 | 54.5% |
| Colusa County | 3,564 | 2,157 | 5,721 | 62.3% |
| Trinity County | 2,784 | 2,143 | 4,927 | 56.5% |
| Mono County | 2,321 | 2,600 | 4,921 | 47.2% |
| Modoc County | 2,313 | 1,068 | 3,381 | 68.4% |
| Sierra County | 891 | 568 | 1,459 | 61.1% |
| Alpine County | 269 | 350 | 619 | 43.5% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVC Media for Independent Voter Project | 2,906 LV | 2026-10-02 | 43 | 40 | 17 | 48.7% |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 4,512 LV | 2026-09-20 | 39 | 52 | 9 | 42.0% |
| Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey) | 1,103 LV | 2026-09-10 | 43 | 55 | 43.7% | |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2,310 LV | 2026-08-09 | 42 | 51 | 7 | 44.3% |
How this is built
Proposition 39 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, escholarship.org. All measures.