2026 forecast · Michigan Secretary Of State
Garlin Gilchrist is all but certain to win Michigan's secretary of state race.
Garlin Gilchrist vs Anthony Forlini, an open seat. The model has Gilchrist ahead by 10.3 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +10.3Polls D +6.1Updated October 22, 2026
Garlin Gilchrist
Democrat
52.9%
2,625,583 projected votes
Anthony Forlini
Republican
42.6%
2,115,659 projected votes
98%Gilchrist
2%Forlini
Gilchrist all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Gilchrist wins about 98 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Gilchrist +826,214 net votes from 17 countiesStatewide D +10.3, a 509,922 vote marginForlini +316,292 net votes from 66 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,962,234 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Garlin Gilchrist D | 2,625,583 | 52.9% |
| Anthony Forlini R | 2,115,659 | 42.6% |
| Christine Sloan, Scott Aughney, Eric Borregard | 220,991 | 4.5% |
| Total | 4,962,234 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
83 counties| County | Gilchrist | Forlini | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,625,580 | 2,115,658 | 220,996 | 4,962,234 | D +10.3 |
| Wayne County | 537,704 | 180,879 | 33,494 | 752,077 | D +47.5 |
| Oakland County | 410,593 | 246,166 | 30,611 | 687,370 | D +23.9 |
| Macomb County | 212,005 | 201,279 | 19,263 | 432,547 | D +2.5 |
| Kent County | 177,903 | 137,291 | 14,692 | 329,886 | D +12.3 |
| Washtenaw County | 151,759 | 42,415 | 9,051 | 203,225 | D +53.8 |
| Genesee County | 107,063 | 76,647 | 8,563 | 192,273 | D +15.8 |
| Ottawa County | 60,989 | 90,081 | 7,042 | 158,112 | R +18.4 |
| Ingham County | 92,494 | 37,877 | 6,077 | 136,448 | D +40.0 |
| Kalamazoo County | 78,823 | 46,702 | 5,851 | 131,376 | D +24.4 |
| Livingston County | 47,033 | 61,161 | 5,044 | 113,238 | R +12.5 |
| Saginaw County | 44,713 | 41,765 | 4,031 | 90,509 | D +3.3 |
| Muskegon County | 42,611 | 36,330 | 3,679 | 82,620 | D +7.6 |
| St. Clair County | 30,400 | 47,922 | 3,650 | 81,972 | R +21.4 |
| Monroe County | 31,393 | 42,499 | 3,444 | 77,336 | R +14.4 |
| Jackson County | 30,672 | 39,172 | 3,256 | 73,100 | R +11.6 |
| Berrien County | 33,760 | 36,001 | 3,251 | 73,012 | R +3.1 |
| Allegan County | 23,127 | 36,241 | 2,767 | 62,135 | R +21.1 |
| Calhoun County | 26,535 | 29,806 | 2,627 | 58,968 | R +5.5 |
| Eaton County | 29,789 | 25,339 | 2,570 | 57,698 | D +7.7 |
| Grand Traverse County | 28,448 | 24,882 | 2,486 | 55,816 | D +6.4 |
| Bay County | 24,346 | 26,525 | 2,372 | 53,243 | R +4.1 |
| Lenawee County | 18,971 | 26,442 | 2,117 | 47,530 | R +15.7 |
| Lapeer County | 15,589 | 29,641 | 2,108 | 47,338 | R +29.7 |
| Midland County | 19,219 | 23,301 | 1,982 | 44,502 | R +9.2 |
| Clinton County | 21,505 | 20,501 | 1,958 | 43,964 | D +2.3 |
| Van Buren County | 15,814 | 18,038 | 1,578 | 35,430 | R +6.3 |
| Marquette County | 19,884 | 13,735 | 1,567 | 35,186 | D +17.5 |
| Shiawassee County | 14,588 | 18,895 | 1,561 | 35,044 | R +12.3 |
| Barry County | 11,697 | 20,016 | 1,479 | 33,192 | R +25.1 |
| Ionia County | 10,927 | 17,792 | 1,339 | 30,058 | R +22.8 |
| Montcalm County | 9,730 | 18,831 | 1,331 | 29,892 | R +30.4 |
| Isabella County | 13,861 | 13,121 | 1,258 | 28,240 | D +2.6 |
| Tuscola County | 7,992 | 17,119 | 1,171 | 26,282 | R +34.7 |
| St. Joseph County | 8,460 | 15,502 | 1,118 | 25,080 | R +28.1 |
| Newaygo County | 7,412 | 16,455 | 1,113 | 24,980 | R +36.2 |
| Cass County | 8,127 | 14,376 | 1,048 | 23,551 | R +26.5 |
| Hillsdale County | 5,631 | 14,538 | 940 | 21,109 | R +42.2 |
| Emmet County | 9,334 | 10,087 | 905 | 20,326 | R +3.7 |
| Sanilac County | 5,614 | 13,741 | 903 | 20,258 | R +40.1 |
| Mecosta County | 7,079 | 11,668 | 874 | 19,621 | R +23.4 |
| Delta County | 7,039 | 11,043 | 843 | 18,925 | R +21.2 |
| Branch County | 5,786 | 11,738 | 817 | 18,341 | R +32.5 |
| Gratiot County | 6,363 | 10,404 | 781 | 17,548 | R +23.0 |
| Houghton County | 7,764 | 8,982 | 780 | 17,526 | R +7.0 |
| Wexford County | 5,556 | 10,333 | 741 | 16,630 | R +28.7 |
| Chippewa County | 6,629 | 9,089 | 732 | 16,450 | R +14.9 |
| Huron County | 5,016 | 10,507 | 723 | 16,246 | R +33.8 |
| Mason County | 6,383 | 8,736 | 704 | 15,823 | R +14.9 |
| Charlevoix County | 6,641 | 8,148 | 689 | 15,478 | R +9.7 |
| Leelanau County | 8,260 | 6,338 | 680 | 15,278 | D +12.6 |
| Alpena County | 5,706 | 8,625 | 668 | 14,999 | R +19.5 |
| Clare County | 4,743 | 9,313 | 656 | 14,712 | R +31.1 |
| Antrim County | 5,761 | 8,151 | 648 | 14,560 | R +16.4 |
| Cheboygan County | 5,233 | 8,481 | 639 | 14,353 | R +22.6 |
| Roscommon County | 4,922 | 8,316 | 618 | 13,856 | R +24.5 |
| Otsego County | 4,673 | 8,351 | 607 | 13,631 | R +27.0 |
| Iosco County | 5,038 | 7,979 | 606 | 13,623 | R +21.6 |
| Manistee County | 5,910 | 7,059 | 604 | 13,573 | R +8.5 |
| Dickinson County | 4,448 | 8,151 | 587 | 13,186 | R +28.1 |
| Gladwin County | 4,169 | 8,400 | 585 | 13,154 | R +32.2 |
| Oceana County | 4,758 | 7,711 | 581 | 13,050 | R +22.6 |
| Osceola County | 2,984 | 7,820 | 504 | 11,308 | R +42.8 |
| Benzie County | 5,356 | 5,290 | 496 | 11,142 | D +0.6 |
| Menominee County | 3,880 | 6,681 | 493 | 11,054 | R +25.3 |
| Ogemaw County | 3,406 | 6,920 | 481 | 10,807 | R +32.5 |
| Kalkaska County | 3,019 | 6,235 | 432 | 9,686 | R +33.2 |
| Missaukee County | 1,855 | 5,724 | 353 | 7,932 | R +48.8 |
| Arenac County | 2,560 | 4,884 | 346 | 7,790 | R +29.8 |
| Presque Isle County | 2,863 | 4,466 | 341 | 7,670 | R +20.9 |
| Gogebic County | 3,235 | 3,640 | 320 | 7,195 | R +5.6 |
| Crawford County | 2,502 | 4,344 | 320 | 7,166 | R +25.7 |
| Mackinac County | 2,590 | 3,744 | 295 | 6,629 | R +17.4 |
| Alcona County | 1,964 | 4,094 | 282 | 6,340 | R +33.6 |
| Iron County | 2,384 | 3,455 | 273 | 6,112 | R +17.5 |
| Lake County | 2,148 | 3,508 | 263 | 5,919 | R +23.0 |
| Montmorency County | 1,563 | 3,653 | 243 | 5,459 | R +38.3 |
| Alger County | 1,979 | 2,475 | 208 | 4,662 | R +10.7 |
| Oscoda County | 1,273 | 2,916 | 195 | 4,384 | R +37.5 |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,507 | 2,523 | 188 | 4,218 | R +24.1 |
| Baraga County | 1,386 | 2,251 | 170 | 3,807 | R +22.7 |
| Ontonagon County | 1,312 | 1,932 | 151 | 3,395 | R +18.2 |
| Luce County | 783 | 1,772 | 120 | 2,675 | R +37.0 |
| Keweenaw County | 639 | 697 | 62 | 1,398 | R +4.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.0 and D +3.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +7.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +14.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +14.1 |
| With polls, 42% weight | D +10.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.0 and D +3.6.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Gilchrist | Forlini | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications for Michigan TV stations incl. CBS Detroit | 682 LV | 2026-10-01 | 41 | 36 | D +5.0 |
| Cygnal (R) / Beacon Research (D) for Michigan Enjoyer | 600 LV | 2026-09-21 | 41 | 38 | D +3.0 |
| Glengariff Group for WDIV/The Detroit News | 600 LV | 2026-09-03 | 42 | 36 | D +6.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 672 LV | 2026-07-29 | 45 | 40 | D +5.0 |