Deb Haaland is all but certain to win New Mexico's governorship.
Deb Haaland vs Gregg Hull, an open seat. The model has Haaland ahead by 18.9 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
813,025 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Deb Haaland D | 478,236 | 58.8% |
| Gregg Hull R | 324,707 | 39.9% |
| Ken Miyagishima I | 10,082 | 1.2% |
| Total | 813,025 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +26.2 and D +11.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +8.7 | |
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | 1,125 LV | 6d | D +7.049 to 42 |
| SurveyUSA | 567 LV | 15d | D +6.047 to 41 |
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | 516 LV | 48d | D +6.049 to 43 |
| BSP Research | 800 RV | 69d | D +17.041 to 24 |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) for the Hull campaign | 400 LV | 92d | D +1.046 to 45 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 159,965 ballots cast so far in New Mexico, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
20 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Barack ObamaFormer Presidentsource
- Pete ButtigiegFormer U.S. Transportation Secretarysource
- Martin HeinrichU.S. Senatorsource
- Ben Ray LujánU.S. Senatorsource
- Tom UdallFormer U.S. Senatorsource
- Teresa Leger FernandezU.S. Representative NM-3source
- Melanie StansburyU.S. Representative NM-1source
- Gabe VasquezU.S. Representative NM-2source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Haaland | Hull |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 54.1 | 44.6 |
| Women | 52% | 61.5 | 37.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 57.2 | 41.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 53.8 | 44.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 30% | 57.3 | 41.5 |
| 65+ | 36% | 61.1 | 37.7 |
| RaceWhite | 48% | 47.8 | 51.0 |
| Black | 2% | 81.4 | 17.4 |
| Latino | 39% | 66.1 | 32.7 |
| Asian and other | 11% | 68.8 | 29.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 22% | 41.4 | 57.4 |
| White women | 26% | 53.4 | 45.4 |
| Black men | 1% | 78.1 | 20.7 |
| Black women | 1% | 84.3 | 14.5 |
| Latino men | 19% | 63.2 | 35.6 |
| Latino women | 20% | 68.8 | 30.1 |
| All other races | 11% | 68.8 | 29.6 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
33 counties| County | Haaland | Hull | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 477,457 | 325,607 | 9,961 | 813,025 | D +18.7 |
| Bernalillo County | 182,366 | 92,809 | 2,499 | 277,674 | D +32.3 |
| Santa Fe County | 62,152 | 13,967 | 459 | 76,578 | D +62.9 |
| Doña Ana County | 45,018 | 26,388 | 1,531 | 72,937 | D +25.7 |
| Sandoval County | 37,219 | 30,850 | 619 | 68,688 | D +9.3 |
| San Juan County | 17,918 | 25,936 | 941 | 44,795 | R +17.9 |
| Valencia County | 13,525 | 14,673 | 342 | 28,540 | R +4.0 |
| McKinley County | 16,088 | 6,284 | 457 | 22,829 | D +42.9 |
| Otero County | 9,027 | 12,019 | 364 | 21,410 | R +14.0 |
| Eddy County | 5,390 | 13,780 | 213 | 19,383 | R +43.3 |
| Chaves County | 6,453 | 12,539 | 231 | 19,223 | R +31.7 |
| Lea County | 4,098 | 13,037 | 225 | 17,360 | R +51.5 |
| Taos County | 12,317 | 2,950 | 123 | 15,390 | D +60.9 |
| Rio Arriba County | 9,547 | 4,658 | 114 | 14,319 | D +34.2 |
| Curry County | 4,556 | 8,247 | 328 | 13,131 | R +28.1 |
| Grant County | 7,595 | 4,939 | 165 | 12,699 | D +20.9 |
| Los Alamos County | 7,484 | 3,286 | 108 | 10,878 | D +38.6 |
| San Miguel County | 7,493 | 2,914 | 84 | 10,491 | D +43.6 |
| Lincoln County | 3,194 | 5,756 | 136 | 9,086 | R +28.3 |
| Cibola County | 4,680 | 3,392 | 139 | 8,211 | D +15.8 |
| Luna County | 3,181 | 3,678 | 119 | 6,978 | R +7.1 |
| Socorro County | 3,589 | 2,708 | 109 | 6,406 | D +13.8 |
| Torrance County | 2,013 | 3,980 | 135 | 6,128 | R +32.1 |
| Roosevelt County | 1,827 | 3,703 | 148 | 5,678 | R +33.0 |
| Colfax County | 2,587 | 2,581 | 73 | 5,241 | D +0.1 |
| Sierra County | 2,331 | 2,807 | 73 | 5,211 | R +9.1 |
| Quay County | 1,040 | 2,193 | 69 | 3,302 | R +34.9 |
| Mora County | 1,591 | 731 | 18 | 2,340 | D +36.7 |
| Catron County | 624 | 1,468 | 32 | 2,124 | R +39.6 |
| Guadalupe County | 1,009 | 689 | 20 | 1,718 | D +18.9 |
| Hidalgo County | 766 | 841 | 34 | 1,641 | R +4.4 |
| Union County | 434 | 1,049 | 37 | 1,520 | R +40.5 |
| De Baca County | 204 | 517 | 11 | 732 | R +43.0 |
| Harding County | 141 | 238 | 5 | 384 | R +24.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.