2026 state legislative forecast
Connecticut House forecast
Democrats win control of the Connecticut House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 151 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 5 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
123 to 138Median 131 ยท 76 for a majority
Favored to flip
31to D0to R
After 2024: 102 D, 49 R
Environment
D +12.0Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Connecticut House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 131 D to 20 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | Jason Perillo 2024 | Bryan Lizotte vs Joe Lauretti | R +10.9 | D +1.1 | 58% | 5,314 | 5,199 | 10,673 | Toss up |
| 70 | Seth Bronko 2024 | Jeff Litke vs Seth Bronko | R +10.3 | D +1.8 | 61% | 4,188 | 4,039 | 8,353 | Toss up |
| 99 | Joe Zullo 2024 | Karen Martin vs Joseph Zullo | R +9.7 | D +2.3 | 64% | 4,599 | 4,394 | 9,130 | Lean D |
| 51 | Chris Stewart 2024 | Lina Wagner vs Chris Stewart | R +19.5 | R +2.4 | 39% | 4,664 | 4,890 | 9,699 | Lean R |
| 119 | Kathy Kennedy 2024 | Alex Armstrong vs Kathy Kennedy | R +14.1 | R +2.5 | 36% | 5,176 | 5,437 | 10,775 | Lean R |
| 108 | Patrick Callahan 2024 | Anne Weisberg vs Pat Callahan | R +4.1 | D +2.7 | 67% | 5,609 | 5,312 | 11,088 | Lean D |
| 71 | William J Pizzuto 2024 | Stephen Farrucci III vs William Pizzuto | R +9.1 | D +3.0 | 68% | 4,391 | 4,138 | 8,659 | Lean D |
| 52 | Kurt Vail 2024 | Vincent Tocci vs Kurt Vail | R +14.9 | R +3.1 | 32% | 5,647 | 6,006 | 11,831 | Lean R |
| 61 | Tami Zawistowski 2024 | James Mol vs Tami Zawistowski | D +1.1 | D +3.1 | 68% | 5,788 | 5,441 | 11,399 | Lean D |
| 131 | Arnold Jensen 2024 | Heather Stafford vs Arnold Jensen | R +16.5 | R +3.3 | 31% | 5,154 | 5,508 | 10,824 | Lean R |
| 67 | William Buckbee 2024 | Alexandra Thomas vs Bill Buckbee | R +5.3 | R +3.5 | 30% | 4,712 | 5,054 | 9,916 | Lean R |
| 8 | Timothy Ackert 2024 | Francis Lombard vs William Gifford | D +1.7 | D +3.6 | 69% | 5,935 | 5,523 | 11,633 | Lean D |
| 122 | Ben Mcgorty 2024 | Mandy Kilmartin vs Ben McGorty | R +3.5 | D +3.7 | 71% | 6,117 | 5,677 | 11,974 | Lean D |
| 63 | Jay M Case 2024 | Caitlin Hall vs Jay Case | R +15.8 | R +3.9 | 28% | 4,847 | 5,239 | 10,240 | Lean R |
| 66 | Karen Reddington-Hughes 2024 | Suzanne Lovig vs Karen Reddington-Hughes | R +3.5 | D +4.2 | 75% | 6,314 | 5,805 | 12,304 | Lean D |
| 30 | Donna M Veach 2024 | Linda Pierce vs Donna Veach | R +7.3 | D +4.7 | 77% | 5,716 | 5,199 | 11,081 | Lean D |
| 78 | Joe Hoxha 2024 | Sean Moore vs Joe Hoxha | R +16.7 | R +4.8 | 24% | 4,634 | 5,104 | 9,887 | Lean R |
| 112 | Tony Scott 2024 | Wiley Mullins vs Tony Scott | R +1.9 | D +4.8 | 77% | 6,186 | 5,617 | 11,982 | Lean D |
| 105 | Nicole Klarides-Ditria 2024 | Josh Beaupre vs Nicole Klarides-Ditria | R +17.6 | R +5.7 | 21% | 4,796 | 5,379 | 10,330 | Lean R |
| 65 | Joe Canino 2024 | Edward Corey vs Joe Canino | R +11.5 | D +6.0 | 82% | 3,923 | 3,481 | 7,517 | Lean D |
| 90 | Craig Fishbein 2024 | David Fritz vs Craig Fishbein | R +1.9 | D +6.6 | 84% | 5,818 | 5,100 | 11,084 | Likely D |
| 45 | Brian L Lanoue 2024 | Matt Danieluk vs Brian Lanoue | R +12.8 | R +7.5 | 13% | 4,910 | 5,703 | 10,774 | Likely R |
| 53 | Tammy Nuccio 2024 | Michelle Cunningham vs Tammy Nuccio | D +5.6 | D +8.0 | 89% | 6,068 | 5,166 | 11,404 | Likely D |
| 34 | Irene Haines 2024 | Meghan Rosenfeld vs Melissa Ziobron | D +0.6 | D +8.1 | 89% | 6,244 | 5,306 | 11,726 | Likely D |
| 107 | Martin J Foncello 2024 | Julie Kerton vs Marty Foncello | R +2.1 | D +8.3 | 90% | 6,165 | 5,215 | 11,554 | Likely D |
| 62 | Mark W Anderson 2024 | Kim Becker vs Mark Anderson | D +1.1 | D +8.9 | 91% | 6,519 | 5,458 | 12,159 | Likely D |
| 43 | Greg Howard 2024 | Bill Heughins vs Greg Howard | D +9.6 | D +8.9 | 92% | 5,951 | 4,980 | 11,098 | Likely D |
| 123 | David J Rutigliano 2024 | Bill Mecca vs David Rutigliano | D +4.3 | D +9.3 | 91% | 5,970 | 4,950 | 11,086 | Likely D |
| 47 | Doug Dubitsky 2024 | Marcus Palumbo vs Doug Dubitsky | R +16.9 | R +9.4 | 9% | 4,773 | 5,760 | 10,693 | Likely R |
| 48 | Mark Decaprio 2024 | Bob Fernandez vs Mark DeCaprio | D +0.9 | D +10.8 | 96% | 6,492 | 5,227 | 11,898 | Likely D |
| 55 | Steve Weir 2024 | Ellen Paul vs Steve Weir | D +8.1 | D +10.8 | 95% | 7,004 | 5,633 | 12,829 | Likely D |
| 59 | Carol Hall 2024 | Rick LeBorious vs Carol Hall | R +0.2 | D +11.2 | 95% | 5,521 | 4,411 | 10,083 | Likely D |
| 77 | Cara C Pavalock-D'Amato 2024 | DeWayne Wynn Jr. vs Cara Pavalock-D'Amato | R +0.6 | D +11.4 | 95% | 5,479 | 4,356 | 9,984 | Likely D |
| 22 | Rebecca Martinez 2024 | Rebecca Martinez vs Richard Mette | R +3.9 | D +11.8 | 97% | 5,674 | 4,476 | 10,305 | Likely D |
Projected Connecticut House vote
151 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 872,061 | 63.3% |
| Republicans | 489,087 | 35.5% |
| Independents and others | 16,963 | 1.2% |
| Total | 1,378,117 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.