2026 state legislative forecast

Michigan Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Michigan Senate in 96% of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 38 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 38On the ballot 38Michigan House All chambers

Chance of control

96%D1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

20 to 24

Median 22 · 20 for a majority

Favored to flip

2to D0to R

After 2024: 20 D, 18 R

Environment

D +12.3

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Michigan Senate map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 22 D to 16 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every Senate district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
32	Jon C Bumstead 2022	Rebecca Amidon vs Kim Cole	R +7.0	R +0.9	42%	114,461	116,610	234,590	Toss up
12	Kevin Hertel 2022	Kevin Hertel vs John Goldwater	R +7.3	D +4.7	75%	114,151	103,903	221,375	Lean D
37	John N Damoose 2022	Kate Gallup vs John Damoose	R +10.9	R +5.5	22%	74,957	83,615	160,986	Lean R
9	Michael Webber 2022	Theresa Brooks vs Michael Webber	R +5.2	D +8.3	90%	63,316	53,557	118,653	Likely D
35	Kristen Mcdonald Rivet 2022	Chedrick Greene vs Jason Tunney	D +0.9	D +9.6	92%	35,161	29,002	65,140	Likely D
30	Mark Huizenga 2022	Carol Glanville vs Mark E. Huizenga	D +4.6	D +10.8	95%	70,901	57,079	129,930	Likely D
13	Rosemary K Bayer 2022	Sean Carlson vs Ryan Berman	R +1.7	D +11.0	95%	52,359	41,981	95,777	Likely D
20	Aric Nesbitt 2022	Dale Murney vs Chris Moraitis	R +16.8	R +12.0	3%	42,469	54,041	97,980	Likely R

Projected Michigan Senate vote

38 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	2,587,779	53.5%
Republicans	2,176,140	45.0%
Independents and others	72,549	1.5%
Total	4,836,468	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. Michigan's Senate map was redrawn by court order in Agee v. Benson, approved July 26, 2024, for the 2026 elections. Each district's lean is the 2024 presidential vote on the new lines, and the 16 metro Detroit districts that were redrawn carry no weight from their 2022 results. The map's shapes for the redrawn districts still follow the older lines. All chambers.