2026 ballot measure forecast
Hawaii Question 1
More Senate time on judicial appointments
Gives the state Senate 60 days instead of 30 to act on judicial appointments made April 1 through December 31 when not in session. The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 84% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
84%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.4%80% range 50 to 75
Needs
53.2%a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580- History and structure
- 63.4% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 63.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Must win a majority of all ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as no.
The campaign
Referred by Legislature; no organized campaigns reported.
Also on the Hawaii ballot
Question 2
County tax increment bonds for infrastructure
93%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +115,448 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide Yes +26.8, a 115,448 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
430,338 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 272,893 | 63.4% |
| No | 157,445 | 36.6% |
| Total | 430,338 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | 182,415 | 105,244 | 287,659 | 63.4% |
| Hawaii County | 42,241 | 24,371 | 66,612 | 63.4% |
| Maui County | 32,847 | 18,951 | 51,798 | 63.4% |
| Kauai County | 15,390 | 8,879 | 24,269 | 63.4% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 1 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Hawaii's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: hawaiipublicradio.org. All measures.