2026 forecast · North Carolina Associate Justice Of The Supreme Court, Seat 1
Anita Earls is all but certain to win North Carolina's associate justice of the supreme court, seat 1 race.
Anita Earls vs Sarah Stevens, with Anita Earls running again. The model has Earls ahead by 13.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +13.9Polls D +8.4Updated October 22, 2026
Anita Earls
Democrat
56.2%
2,486,502 projected votes
Sarah Stevens
Republican
42.3%
1,872,107 projected votes
100%Earls
0%Stevens
Earls all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Earls wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Earls +1,059,215 net votes from 38 countiesStatewide D +13.9, a 614,399 vote marginStevens +444,816 net votes from 62 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,424,985 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Anita Earls D | 2,486,502 | 56.2% |
| Sarah Stevens R | 1,872,107 | 42.3% |
| Other candidates | 66,374 | 1.5% |
| Total | 4,424,985 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
100 counties| County | Earls | Stevens | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,486,502 | 1,872,103 | 66,380 | 4,424,985 | D +13.9 |
| Wake County | 386,751 | 129,059 | 7,855 | 523,665 | D +49.2 |
| Mecklenburg County | 345,014 | 93,276 | 6,675 | 444,965 | D +56.6 |
| Guilford County | 157,552 | 62,537 | 3,352 | 223,441 | D +42.5 |
| Forsyth County | 104,285 | 52,543 | 2,388 | 159,216 | D +32.5 |
| Durham County | 135,901 | 14,150 | 2,285 | 152,336 | D +79.9 |
| Buncombe County | 95,098 | 36,490 | 2,004 | 133,592 | D +43.9 |
| New Hanover County | 61,349 | 46,360 | 1,641 | 109,350 | D +13.7 |
| Cumberland County | 72,748 | 34,317 | 1,630 | 108,695 | D +35.4 |
| Union County | 44,695 | 56,923 | 1,548 | 103,166 | R +11.8 |
| Johnston County | 37,920 | 51,633 | 1,364 | 90,917 | R +15.1 |
| Cabarrus County | 47,601 | 40,819 | 1,347 | 89,767 | D +7.6 |
| Gaston County | 34,820 | 52,469 | 1,329 | 88,618 | R +19.9 |
| Brunswick County | 33,539 | 47,889 | 1,240 | 82,668 | R +17.4 |
| Iredell County | 30,725 | 49,637 | 1,224 | 81,586 | R +23.2 |
| Orange County | 62,824 | 11,085 | 1,126 | 75,035 | D +69.0 |
| Alamance County | 35,311 | 33,454 | 1,047 | 69,812 | D +2.7 |
| Davidson County | 20,683 | 47,798 | 1,043 | 69,524 | R +39.0 |
| Pitt County | 41,187 | 25,201 | 1,011 | 67,399 | D +23.7 |
| Catawba County | 23,002 | 40,994 | 975 | 64,971 | R +27.7 |
| Onslow County | 22,841 | 36,715 | 907 | 60,463 | R +22.9 |
| Rowan County | 19,394 | 36,612 | 853 | 56,859 | R +30.3 |
| Randolph County | 13,073 | 42,850 | 852 | 56,775 | R +52.5 |
| Henderson County | 27,877 | 27,667 | 846 | 56,390 | D +0.4 |
| Moore County | 20,047 | 27,620 | 726 | 48,393 | R +15.7 |
| Harnett County | 19,758 | 25,923 | 695 | 46,376 | R +13.3 |
| Craven County | 19,082 | 23,479 | 648 | 43,209 | R +10.2 |
| Wayne County | 20,894 | 20,844 | 635 | 42,373 | D +0.1 |
| Chatham County | 27,174 | 14,404 | 633 | 42,211 | D +30.3 |
| Lincoln County | 12,469 | 28,423 | 622 | 41,514 | R +38.4 |
| Nash County | 23,826 | 16,653 | 616 | 41,095 | D +17.4 |
| Cleveland County | 14,554 | 23,736 | 583 | 38,873 | R +23.6 |
| Rockingham County | 14,196 | 22,940 | 566 | 37,702 | R +23.2 |
| Carteret County | 11,806 | 23,657 | 540 | 36,003 | R +32.9 |
| Burke County | 12,261 | 22,214 | 525 | 35,000 | R +28.4 |
| Robeson County | 16,036 | 17,482 | 510 | 34,028 | R +4.3 |
| Caldwell County | 9,823 | 22,193 | 487 | 32,503 | R +38.1 |
| Franklin County | 16,084 | 15,299 | 477 | 31,860 | D +2.5 |
| Wilson County | 18,175 | 12,089 | 461 | 30,725 | D +19.8 |
| Haywood County | 13,087 | 16,243 | 447 | 29,777 | R +10.6 |
| Surry County | 7,832 | 20,347 | 429 | 28,608 | R +43.7 |
| Pender County | 10,216 | 17,385 | 421 | 28,022 | R +25.6 |
| Wilkes County | 6,093 | 21,509 | 420 | 28,022 | R +55.0 |
| Stanly County | 6,393 | 20,583 | 411 | 27,387 | R +51.8 |
| Rutherford County | 8,441 | 18,009 | 403 | 26,853 | R +35.6 |
| Watauga County | 16,429 | 9,854 | 400 | 26,683 | D +24.6 |
| Granville County | 13,714 | 11,160 | 379 | 25,253 | D +10.1 |
| Lee County | 10,986 | 11,421 | 341 | 22,748 | R +1.9 |
| Lenoir County | 11,525 | 9,579 | 321 | 21,425 | D +9.1 |
| Sampson County | 8,348 | 12,521 | 318 | 21,187 | R +19.7 |
| Beaufort County | 8,085 | 12,566 | 315 | 20,966 | R +21.4 |
| Columbus County | 8,364 | 12,262 | 314 | 20,940 | R +18.6 |
| Stokes County | 5,292 | 15,025 | 310 | 20,627 | R +47.2 |
| Davie County | 5,837 | 14,240 | 306 | 20,383 | R +41.2 |
| Dare County | 9,123 | 10,228 | 295 | 19,646 | R +5.6 |
| Edgecombe County | 13,967 | 4,516 | 281 | 18,764 | D +50.4 |
| Halifax County | 13,424 | 4,958 | 280 | 18,662 | D +45.4 |
| McDowell County | 5,412 | 12,469 | 272 | 18,153 | R +38.9 |
| Jackson County | 9,133 | 8,157 | 264 | 17,554 | D +5.6 |
| Duplin County | 7,493 | 9,786 | 263 | 17,542 | R +13.1 |
| Macon County | 6,003 | 11,215 | 263 | 17,481 | R +29.8 |
| Transylvania County | 9,017 | 8,137 | 261 | 17,415 | D +5.1 |
| Person County | 7,689 | 9,238 | 258 | 17,185 | R +9.0 |
| Hoke County | 10,999 | 5,614 | 253 | 16,866 | D +31.9 |
| Alexander County | 3,597 | 12,616 | 247 | 16,460 | R +54.8 |
| Pasquotank County | 8,676 | 7,329 | 244 | 16,249 | D +8.3 |
| Yadkin County | 2,977 | 12,560 | 237 | 15,774 | R +60.8 |
| Vance County | 10,666 | 4,591 | 232 | 15,489 | D +39.2 |
| Richmond County | 7,218 | 7,573 | 225 | 15,016 | R +2.4 |
| Cherokee County | 3,099 | 10,538 | 207 | 13,844 | R +53.7 |
| Currituck County | 3,838 | 9,361 | 201 | 13,400 | R +41.2 |
| Bladen County | 6,283 | 6,693 | 198 | 13,174 | R +3.1 |
| Ashe County | 4,014 | 8,779 | 195 | 12,988 | R +36.7 |
| Scotland County | 6,456 | 4,827 | 172 | 11,455 | D +14.2 |
| Madison County | 5,036 | 5,767 | 165 | 10,968 | R +6.7 |
| Polk County | 4,522 | 5,796 | 157 | 10,475 | R +12.2 |
| Montgomery County | 3,710 | 6,217 | 151 | 10,078 | R +24.9 |
| Martin County | 5,426 | 4,015 | 144 | 9,585 | D +14.7 |
| Yancey County | 3,722 | 5,481 | 140 | 9,343 | R +18.8 |
| Caswell County | 4,378 | 4,795 | 140 | 9,313 | R +4.5 |
| Anson County | 5,263 | 2,989 | 126 | 8,378 | D +27.1 |
| Warren County | 5,934 | 2,090 | 123 | 8,147 | D +47.2 |
| Hertford County | 5,886 | 1,733 | 116 | 7,735 | D +53.7 |
| Avery County | 2,053 | 5,526 | 116 | 7,695 | R +45.1 |
| Northampton County | 5,459 | 1,966 | 113 | 7,538 | D +46.3 |
| Bertie County | 5,303 | 1,943 | 111 | 7,357 | D +45.7 |
| Mitchell County | 1,704 | 5,342 | 108 | 7,154 | R +50.9 |
| Greene County | 3,554 | 3,211 | 103 | 6,868 | D +5.0 |
| Pamlico County | 2,594 | 3,853 | 98 | 6,545 | R +19.2 |
| Chowan County | 2,928 | 3,089 | 92 | 6,109 | R +2.6 |
| Clay County | 1,568 | 4,446 | 92 | 6,106 | R +47.1 |
| Perquimans County | 2,073 | 3,905 | 91 | 6,069 | R +30.2 |
| Swain County | 2,576 | 2,821 | 82 | 5,479 | R +4.5 |
| Alleghany County | 1,405 | 3,875 | 80 | 5,360 | R +46.1 |
| Camden County | 1,421 | 3,301 | 72 | 4,794 | R +39.2 |
| Washington County | 3,085 | 1,505 | 69 | 4,659 | D +33.9 |
| Gates County | 2,277 | 2,300 | 70 | 4,647 | R +0.5 |
| Jones County | 1,929 | 2,299 | 64 | 4,292 | R +8.6 |
| Graham County | 897 | 2,883 | 57 | 3,837 | R +51.8 |
| Hyde County | 1,005 | 936 | 30 | 1,971 | D +3.5 |
| Tyrrell County | 693 | 696 | 21 | 1,410 | R +0.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +20.3 and D +7.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate | D +12.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +16.6 |
| With polls, 31% weight | D +13.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 55%, Approval fundamentals 27%, Gallup, relaxed 18%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +20.3 and D +7.5.
Polls of the race
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Earls | Stevens | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling (R) | 608 LV | 2026-09-15 | 47 | 36 | D +11.0 |
| YouGov | 660 LV | 2026-08-12 | 47 | 44 | D +3.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-10 | 43 | 40 | D +3.0 |
| Change Research (D) | 967 LV | 2026-08-01 | 45 | 39 | D +6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 759 LV | 2026-07-11 | 44 | 42 | D +2.0 |
| YouGov | 906 LV | 2026-06-10 | 40 | 35 | D +5.0 |