2026 forecast · Delaware Attorney General
Kathy Jennings is all but certain to win Delaware's attorney general race.
Kathy Jennings vs Dave Graham, with Kathy Jennings running again. The model has Jennings ahead by 31.0 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +31.0Updated October 22, 2026
Kathy Jennings
Democrat
64.2%
268,165 projected votes
Dave Graham
Republican
33.2%
138,578 projected votes
100%Jennings
0%Graham
Jennings all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Jennings wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Jennings +129,587 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide D +31.0, a 129,587 vote marginGraham +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected statewide vote
417,920 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kathy Jennings D | 268,165 | 64.2% |
| Dave Graham R | 138,578 | 33.2% |
| Other candidates | 11,175 | 2.7% |
| Total | 417,920 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
3 counties| County | Jennings | Graham | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 268,166 | 138,579 | 11,175 | 417,920 | D +31.0 |
| New Castle County | 169,937 | 52,701 | 6,117 | 228,755 | D +51.3 |
| Sussex County | 58,148 | 56,265 | 3,143 | 117,556 | D +1.6 |
| Kent County | 40,081 | 29,613 | 1,915 | 71,609 | D +14.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +40.6 and D +21.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate | D +29.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +28.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +31.9 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +31.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +40.6 and D +21.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Jennings | Graham | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||