2026 ballot measure forecast
Arizona Proposition 318
Sex based school sports, restrooms, locker rooms
Requires teams designated by biological sex and bars transgender students from restrooms and locker rooms not matching birth sex. The forecast has Yes at 66.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
95%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.2%80% range 54 to 78
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 66.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 66.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.
Also on the Arizona ballot
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Ban vehicle miles traveled taxes
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Proposition 142
Ban race based preferences and DEI mandates
72%
Proposition 144
Voter ID for all voters including mail
>99%
Proposition 316
Cap local grocery taxes at 2 percent
83%
Proposition 317
Designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations
>99%
Proposition 319
Restrict photo radar traffic enforcement
88%
Proposition 320
Require 60 percent spending on instruction
81%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +971,658 net votes from 15 countiesStatewide Yes +32.4, a 971,658 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,994,706 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,983,182 | 66.2% |
| No | 1,011,524 | 33.8% |
| Total | 2,994,706 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 1,190,272 | 620,774 | 1,811,046 | 65.7% |
| Pima County | 272,549 | 188,967 | 461,516 | 59.1% |
| Pinal County | 129,340 | 50,615 | 179,955 | 71.9% |
| Yavapai County | 98,569 | 31,875 | 130,444 | 75.6% |
| Mohave County | 79,254 | 16,820 | 96,074 | 82.5% |
| Coconino County | 36,772 | 27,474 | 64,246 | 57.2% |
| Yuma County | 43,188 | 17,355 | 60,543 | 71.3% |
| Cochise County | 38,092 | 14,641 | 52,733 | 72.2% |
| Navajo County | 31,762 | 13,422 | 45,184 | 70.3% |
| Apache County | 16,631 | 12,238 | 28,869 | 57.6% |
| Gila County | 18,960 | 5,727 | 24,687 | 76.8% |
| Santa Cruz County | 9,380 | 6,858 | 16,238 | 57.8% |
| Graham County | 10,775 | 2,673 | 13,448 | 80.1% |
| La Paz County | 5,293 | 1,420 | 6,713 | 78.8% |
| Greenlee County | 2,345 | 665 | 3,010 | 77.9% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Proposition 318 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arizona's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, azfamily.com, axios.com. All measures.