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2026 ballot measure forecast

Idaho Advisory Question

Advisory vote on official state gun

Nonbinding question asking voters which of six firearms, such as the Winchester Model 1894 or Colt M1911, the Legislature should name the official state gun. The forecast has Yes at 50.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 49% chance to pass.

Toss upotherGunsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
49%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
50.0%
80% range 36 to 63
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
50.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
50.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Advisory and nonbinding; voters pick one of six options and the Legislature must pass a law afterward.
The campaign

Placed by HB 932, which passed 68 to 0 and 32 to 0 and was signed by Gov. Brad Little R; no campaign reported.

Also on the Idaho ballot

HJR 4
Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs
86%
HJR 6
English as official state language
95%
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
Restore abortion access before viability
23%

Advisory Question by county

Ada CountyAdams CountyBannock CountyBear Lake CountyBenewah CountyBingham CountyBlaine CountyBoise CountyBonner CountyBonneville CountyBoundary CountyButte CountyCamas CountyCanyon CountyCaribou CountyCassia CountyClark CountyClearwater CountyCuster CountyElmore CountyFranklin CountyFremont CountyGem CountyGooding CountyIdaho CountyJefferson CountyJerome CountyKootenai CountyLatah CountyLemhi CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMadison CountyMinidoka CountyNez Perce CountyOneida CountyOwyhee CountyPayette CountyPower CountyShoshone CountyTeton CountyTwin Falls CountyValley CountyWashington CountyAdaCanyonKootenaiBonnevilleBannockTwin FallsBonnerLatahNez PerceBinghamJeffersonMadison
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +0 net votes from 0 countiesStatewide Even, a 0 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

682,188 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes341,09450.0%
No341,09450.0%
Total682,188100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Ada County101,763101,763203,52650.0%
Canyon County36,71736,71773,43450.0%
Kootenai County36,02536,02572,05050.0%
Bonneville County20,85920,85941,71850.0%
Bannock County14,98714,98729,97450.0%
Twin Falls County14,21414,21428,42850.0%
Bonner County11,34811,34822,69650.0%
Latah County8,1458,14516,29050.0%
Nez Perce County7,7357,73515,47050.0%
Bingham County7,6897,68915,37850.0%
Jefferson County5,5705,57011,14050.0%
Madison County5,5445,54411,08850.0%
Blaine County5,2255,22510,45050.0%
Payette County4,4894,4898,97850.0%
Elmore County4,1754,1758,35050.0%
Gem County4,1574,1578,31450.0%
Idaho County3,9513,9517,90250.0%
Cassia County3,5963,5967,19250.0%
Jerome County3,0353,0356,07050.0%
Minidoka County3,0203,0206,04050.0%
Valley County2,7952,7955,59050.0%
Boundary County2,7782,7785,55650.0%
Franklin County2,6062,6065,21250.0%
Fremont County2,5402,5405,08050.0%
Teton County2,5182,5185,03650.0%
Shoshone County2,4232,4234,84650.0%
Gooding County2,3582,3584,71650.0%
Washington County2,1862,1864,37250.0%
Benewah County1,9581,9583,91650.0%
Owyhee County1,9381,9383,87650.0%
Lemhi County1,9241,9243,84850.0%
Boise County1,8831,8833,76650.0%
Clearwater County1,7741,7743,54850.0%
Bear Lake County1,2831,2832,56650.0%
Caribou County1,2751,2752,55050.0%
Power County1,1641,1642,32850.0%
Adams County1,0651,0652,13050.0%
Custer County1,0631,0632,12650.0%
Oneida County9179171,83450.0%
Lincoln County7557551,51050.0%
Lewis County7387381,47650.0%
Butte County5435431,08650.0%
Camas County24624649250.0%
Clark County12012024050.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Advisory Question is forecast as a guns measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: en.wikipedia.org, idahocapitalsun.com. All measures.