2026 forecast · Missouri Auditor
Scott Fitzpatrick is all but certain to win Missouri's auditor race.
Quentin Wilson vs Scott Fitzpatrick, with Scott Fitzpatrick running again. The model has Fitzpatrick ahead by 13.6 points, with a 97 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +13.6Updated October 22, 2026
Quentin Wilson
Democrat
41.0%
886,218 projected votes
Scott Fitzpatrick
Republican
54.5%
1,180,502 projected votes
97%Fitzpatrick
3%Wilson
Fitzpatrick all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Fitzpatrick wins about 97 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Wilson +238,560 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide R +13.6, a 294,275 vote marginFitzpatrick +532,835 net votes from 109 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,164,110 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Fitzpatrick R | 1,180,502 | 54.5% |
| Quentin Wilson D | 886,218 | 41.0% |
| Dustin Coffell | 97,389 | 4.5% |
| Total | 2,164,110 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
115 counties| County | Wilson | Fitzpatrick | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 886,224 | 1,180,499 | 97,389 | 2,164,112 | R +13.6 |
| St. Louis County | 222,883 | 110,888 | 15,728 | 349,499 | D +32.0 |
| Jackson County | 141,597 | 95,717 | 11,184 | 248,498 | D +18.5 |
| St. Charles County | 57,734 | 80,282 | 6,504 | 144,520 | R +15.6 |
| Greene County | 42,451 | 60,796 | 4,865 | 108,112 | R +17.0 |
| St. Louis city | 85,413 | 15,854 | 4,772 | 106,039 | D +65.6 |
| Clay County | 42,604 | 42,219 | 3,997 | 88,820 | D +0.4 |
| Jefferson County | 26,185 | 50,235 | 3,601 | 80,021 | R +30.1 |
| Boone County | 37,440 | 27,088 | 3,041 | 67,569 | D +15.3 |
| Jasper County | 10,473 | 29,801 | 1,898 | 42,172 | R +45.8 |
| Platte County | 18,435 | 18,046 | 1,719 | 38,200 | D +1.0 |
| Cass County | 13,147 | 23,290 | 1,716 | 38,153 | R +26.6 |
| Franklin County | 10,191 | 25,158 | 1,667 | 37,016 | R +40.4 |
| Christian County | 7,221 | 22,689 | 1,409 | 31,319 | R +49.4 |
| Cape Girardeau County | 7,360 | 20,607 | 1,318 | 29,285 | R +45.2 |
| Buchanan County | 10,639 | 17,262 | 1,315 | 29,216 | R +22.7 |
| Cole County | 8,054 | 17,740 | 1,215 | 27,009 | R +35.9 |
| St. Francois County | 6,143 | 16,629 | 1,073 | 23,845 | R +44.0 |
| Lincoln County | 4,822 | 15,483 | 956 | 21,261 | R +50.1 |
| Newton County | 3,945 | 15,721 | 927 | 20,593 | R +57.2 |
| Taney County | 3,876 | 15,347 | 905 | 20,128 | R +57.0 |
| Johnson County | 5,821 | 12,497 | 863 | 19,181 | R +34.8 |
| Pulaski County | 4,485 | 13,611 | 854 | 18,950 | R +48.2 |
| Camden County | 3,584 | 11,963 | 733 | 16,280 | R +51.5 |
| Phelps County | 4,561 | 10,763 | 722 | 16,046 | R +38.6 |
| Callaway County | 4,398 | 10,851 | 718 | 15,967 | R +40.4 |
| Pettis County | 3,581 | 10,390 | 659 | 14,630 | R +46.5 |
| Butler County | 2,529 | 11,326 | 653 | 14,508 | R +60.6 |
| Howell County | 2,153 | 11,016 | 620 | 13,789 | R +64.3 |
| Webster County | 2,411 | 10,209 | 595 | 13,215 | R +59.0 |
| Scott County | 2,616 | 9,776 | 584 | 12,976 | R +55.2 |
| Lawrence County | 2,267 | 10,103 | 583 | 12,953 | R +60.5 |
| Warren County | 3,328 | 8,955 | 579 | 12,862 | R +43.8 |
| Laclede County | 2,013 | 9,778 | 556 | 12,347 | R +62.9 |
| Barry County | 2,016 | 9,603 | 548 | 12,167 | R +62.4 |
| Stone County | 2,154 | 9,315 | 541 | 12,010 | R +59.6 |
| Lafayette County | 2,940 | 8,022 | 517 | 11,479 | R +44.3 |
| Polk County | 2,031 | 8,648 | 503 | 11,182 | R +59.2 |
| Stoddard County | 1,291 | 8,242 | 448 | 9,981 | R +69.6 |
| Marion County | 2,217 | 7,076 | 437 | 9,730 | R +49.9 |
| Adair County | 2,871 | 5,965 | 416 | 9,252 | R +33.4 |
| Dunklin County | 1,799 | 6,943 | 412 | 9,154 | R +56.2 |
| Texas County | 1,287 | 7,135 | 397 | 8,819 | R +66.3 |
| Miller County | 1,333 | 7,004 | 393 | 8,730 | R +65.0 |
| Audrain County | 2,104 | 6,053 | 384 | 8,541 | R +46.2 |
| Randolph County | 2,017 | 6,136 | 385 | 8,538 | R +48.2 |
| Saline County | 2,477 | 5,314 | 367 | 8,158 | R +34.8 |
| Washington County | 1,512 | 6,199 | 364 | 8,075 | R +58.0 |
| Ray County | 2,137 | 5,545 | 361 | 8,043 | R +42.4 |
| Crawford County | 1,560 | 6,062 | 359 | 7,981 | R +56.4 |
| McDonald County | 1,212 | 6,379 | 358 | 7,949 | R +65.0 |
| Henry County | 1,731 | 5,726 | 351 | 7,808 | R +51.2 |
| Nodaway County | 2,077 | 5,334 | 349 | 7,760 | R +42.0 |
| Morgan County | 1,490 | 5,712 | 340 | 7,542 | R +56.0 |
| Benton County | 1,482 | 5,679 | 338 | 7,499 | R +56.0 |
| Clinton County | 1,956 | 5,114 | 333 | 7,403 | R +42.6 |
| Vernon County | 1,285 | 5,158 | 304 | 6,747 | R +57.4 |
| Perry County | 1,122 | 5,196 | 297 | 6,615 | R +61.6 |
| Ste. Genevieve County | 1,899 | 4,374 | 296 | 6,569 | R +37.7 |
| Wright County | 685 | 5,359 | 285 | 6,329 | R +73.8 |
| Andrew County | 1,500 | 4,522 | 284 | 6,306 | R +47.9 |
| Pike County | 1,314 | 4,588 | 278 | 6,180 | R +53.0 |
| Dallas County | 1,033 | 4,729 | 272 | 6,034 | R +61.3 |
| Cooper County | 1,564 | 4,055 | 264 | 5,883 | R +42.3 |
| Bates County | 1,091 | 4,280 | 253 | 5,624 | R +56.7 |
| New Madrid County | 1,063 | 4,097 | 243 | 5,403 | R +56.2 |
| Gasconade County | 1,012 | 4,043 | 238 | 5,293 | R +57.3 |
| Macon County | 940 | 4,072 | 236 | 5,248 | R +59.7 |
| Moniteau County | 890 | 4,003 | 230 | 5,123 | R +60.8 |
| Dent County | 748 | 4,090 | 229 | 5,067 | R +66.0 |
| Livingston County | 1,025 | 3,813 | 228 | 5,066 | R +55.0 |
| Cedar County | 726 | 4,047 | 224 | 4,997 | R +66.5 |
| Pemiscot County | 1,231 | 3,517 | 224 | 4,972 | R +46.0 |
| Osage County | 615 | 3,837 | 210 | 4,662 | R +69.1 |
| Madison County | 795 | 3,401 | 197 | 4,393 | R +59.3 |
| Mississippi County | 934 | 3,026 | 186 | 4,146 | R +50.5 |
| Douglas County | 560 | 3,392 | 187 | 4,139 | R +68.4 |
| Linn County | 901 | 3,005 | 184 | 4,090 | R +51.5 |
| Barton County | 503 | 3,344 | 181 | 4,028 | R +70.5 |
| Montgomery County | 684 | 3,150 | 181 | 4,015 | R +61.4 |
| Wayne County | 539 | 3,213 | 176 | 3,928 | R +68.1 |
| DeKalb County | 734 | 3,015 | 177 | 3,926 | R +58.1 |
| Bollinger County | 464 | 3,087 | 167 | 3,718 | R +70.5 |
| Ralls County | 729 | 2,804 | 167 | 3,700 | R +56.1 |
| Ripley County | 499 | 2,992 | 164 | 3,655 | R +68.2 |
| Howard County | 1,002 | 2,433 | 161 | 3,596 | R +39.8 |
| Lewis County | 625 | 2,734 | 158 | 3,517 | R +60.0 |
| St. Clair County | 628 | 2,617 | 152 | 3,397 | R +58.5 |
| Iron County | 610 | 2,597 | 151 | 3,358 | R +59.2 |
| Grundy County | 533 | 2,584 | 147 | 3,264 | R +62.8 |
| Ozark County | 432 | 2,656 | 146 | 3,234 | R +68.8 |
| Hickory County | 616 | 2,434 | 144 | 3,194 | R +56.9 |
| Caldwell County | 570 | 2,364 | 138 | 3,072 | R +58.4 |
| Monroe County | 600 | 2,330 | 138 | 3,068 | R +56.4 |
| Maries County | 469 | 2,416 | 136 | 3,021 | R +64.5 |
| Oregon County | 429 | 2,435 | 135 | 2,999 | R +66.9 |
| Carroll County | 474 | 2,349 | 133 | 2,956 | R +63.5 |
| Daviess County | 528 | 2,212 | 129 | 2,869 | R +58.7 |
| Harrison County | 357 | 2,307 | 126 | 2,790 | R +69.9 |
| Dade County | 402 | 2,199 | 122 | 2,723 | R +66.0 |
| Chariton County | 590 | 1,848 | 114 | 2,552 | R +49.3 |
| Shannon County | 412 | 1,973 | 113 | 2,498 | R +62.5 |
| Clark County | 420 | 1,763 | 103 | 2,286 | R +58.8 |
| Reynolds County | 330 | 1,762 | 99 | 2,191 | R +65.3 |
| Gentry County | 364 | 1,626 | 94 | 2,084 | R +60.5 |
| Shelby County | 360 | 1,596 | 92 | 2,048 | R +60.3 |
| Sullivan County | 339 | 1,615 | 93 | 2,047 | R +62.3 |
| Atchison County | 352 | 1,412 | 83 | 1,847 | R +57.4 |
| Carter County | 233 | 1,491 | 81 | 1,805 | R +69.7 |
| Putnam County | 216 | 1,328 | 73 | 1,617 | R +68.8 |
| Holt County | 226 | 1,217 | 68 | 1,511 | R +65.6 |
| Scotland County | 272 | 1,141 | 66 | 1,479 | R +58.7 |
| Schuyler County | 217 | 1,041 | 59 | 1,317 | R +62.5 |
| Knox County | 216 | 997 | 58 | 1,271 | R +61.4 |
| Mercer County | 142 | 987 | 54 | 1,183 | R +71.5 |
| Worth County | 121 | 530 | 31 | 682 | R +60.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.4 and R +22.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket | R +6.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +11.6 |
| Blend of every leg | R +8.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +14.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +13.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +4.4 and R +22.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Wilson | Fitzpatrick | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||