Tom Cotton is very likely to win Arkansas's Senate seat.
Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton. The model has Cotton ahead by 9.5 points, winning 94 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
983,332 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton R | 522,601 | 53.1% |
| Hallie Shoffner D | 428,674 | 43.6% |
| Other / write-in O | 32,057 | 3.3% |
| Total | 983,332 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +1.9 and R +16.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +10.9 | |
| Hendrix College | 709 LV | 2d | R +9.041 to 50 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 550 LV | 11d | R +11.039 to 50 |
| J.L. Partners | 803 LV | 58d | R +16.035 to 51 |
| Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 64d | D +3.047 to 44 |
| 2040 Strategy Group (D) | 586 LV | 82d | R +3.043 to 46 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 550 LV | 248d | R +22.036 to 58 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 115,503 ballots cast so far in Arkansas, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
18 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Blanche LincolnFormer U.S. Senator from Arkansassource
- Mike BeebeFormer Governor of Arkansassource
- Jon TesterFormer U.S. senator from Montanasource
- Marion A. Humphrey Sr.Former Arkansas judgesource
- Democratic Party of ArkansasState partysource
- Democratic Party of Benton CountyCounty partysource
- Everytown for Gun SafetyGun safety group, via Gun Sense Votersource
- National Education AssociationNational teachers unionsource
- Dave McCormickU.S. senator from Pennsylvaniasource
- Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
- Sarah Huckabee SandersGovernor of Arkansassource
- Rick CrawfordU.S. Representative, AR-01source
- French HillU.S. Representative, AR-02source
- Steve WomackU.S. Representative, AR-03source
- Bruce WestermanU.S. Representative, AR-04source
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life Americaanti abortion organizationsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Shoffner | Cotton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 37.4 | 59.3 |
| Women | 53% | 45.1 | 51.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 44.1 | 52.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 42.0 | 54.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 40.1 | 56.7 |
| 65+ | 36% | 41.3 | 55.5 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 32.1 | 64.5 |
| Black | 14% | 80.8 | 16.7 |
| Latino | 4% | 53.7 | 42.9 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 63.9 | 32.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 27.0 | 69.7 |
| White women | 41% | 36.6 | 60.0 |
| Black men | 7% | 77.2 | 20.3 |
| Black women | 7% | 84.2 | 13.4 |
| Latino men | 2% | 52.7 | 43.9 |
| Latino women | 2% | 54.7 | 42.1 |
| All other races | 6% | 63.9 | 32.0 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
75 counties| County | Shoffner | Cotton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 426,864 | 524,520 | 31,948 | 983,332 | R +9.9 |
| Pulaski County | 91,765 | 38,902 | 3,077 | 133,744 | D +39.5 |
| Benton County | 43,252 | 53,930 | 3,734 | 100,916 | R +10.7 |
| Washington County | 44,395 | 32,798 | 3,049 | 80,242 | D +14.4 |
| Saline County | 18,029 | 27,031 | 1,586 | 46,646 | R +19.5 |
| Faulkner County | 19,279 | 23,844 | 1,425 | 44,548 | R +10.4 |
| Sebastian County | 14,855 | 21,629 | 1,284 | 37,768 | R +18.1 |
| Garland County | 14,636 | 19,794 | 1,028 | 35,458 | R +14.6 |
| Craighead County | 13,033 | 17,414 | 974 | 31,421 | R +14.0 |
| White County | 7,247 | 17,065 | 961 | 25,273 | R +38.8 |
| Lonoke County | 7,881 | 15,888 | 812 | 24,581 | R +32.7 |
| Pope County | 6,426 | 12,673 | 714 | 19,813 | R +31.6 |
| Crawford County | 5,517 | 13,140 | 778 | 19,435 | R +39.3 |
| Jefferson County | 12,764 | 5,543 | 317 | 18,624 | D +38.7 |
| Baxter County | 4,788 | 11,565 | 593 | 16,946 | R +40.0 |
| Boone County | 3,417 | 9,821 | 523 | 13,761 | R +46.6 |
| Greene County | 3,704 | 8,844 | 523 | 13,071 | R +39.3 |
| Miller County | 4,133 | 8,403 | 203 | 12,739 | R +33.5 |
| Union County | 5,268 | 6,984 | 237 | 12,489 | R +13.9 |
| Crittenden County | 7,270 | 4,408 | 227 | 11,905 | D +23.7 |
| Independence County | 3,281 | 7,820 | 511 | 11,612 | R +39.0 |
| Cleburne County | 2,467 | 7,632 | 465 | 10,564 | R +48.9 |
| Hot Spring County | 3,541 | 6,574 | 411 | 10,526 | R +28.9 |
| Carroll County | 4,040 | 5,171 | 374 | 9,585 | R +11.8 |
| Mississippi County | 4,308 | 4,590 | 313 | 9,211 | R +3.3 |
| Johnson County | 2,603 | 4,574 | 370 | 7,547 | R +26.2 |
| Ouachita County | 3,672 | 3,414 | 145 | 7,231 | D +3.3 |
| Conway County | 2,819 | 4,109 | 222 | 7,150 | R +18.1 |
| Polk County | 1,473 | 5,268 | 340 | 7,081 | R +53.4 |
| Logan County | 1,839 | 4,628 | 333 | 6,800 | R +40.9 |
| Grant County | 1,604 | 4,904 | 229 | 6,737 | R +48.9 |
| Columbia County | 2,691 | 3,813 | 153 | 6,657 | R +17.0 |
| Clark County | 3,344 | 3,140 | 159 | 6,643 | D +2.9 |
| Marion County | 1,741 | 4,418 | 270 | 6,429 | R +41.5 |
| Van Buren County | 1,857 | 4,308 | 256 | 6,421 | R +38.1 |
| Sharp County | 1,685 | 4,318 | 277 | 6,280 | R +41.8 |
| Madison County | 1,741 | 4,088 | 275 | 6,104 | R +38.1 |
| Poinsett County | 1,735 | 4,043 | 241 | 6,019 | R +38.1 |
| Ashley County | 2,113 | 3,551 | 127 | 5,791 | R +24.8 |
| Franklin County | 1,655 | 3,848 | 217 | 5,720 | R +38.1 |
| Randolph County | 1,510 | 3,860 | 224 | 5,594 | R +41.7 |
| Yell County | 1,634 | 3,681 | 262 | 5,577 | R +36.5 |
| Drew County | 2,358 | 3,012 | 144 | 5,514 | R +11.8 |
| St. Francis County | 3,319 | 1,925 | 91 | 5,335 | D +25.9 |
| Cross County | 1,926 | 3,289 | 112 | 5,327 | R +25.2 |
| Stone County | 1,400 | 3,553 | 202 | 5,155 | R +41.5 |
| Hempstead County | 2,050 | 2,978 | 118 | 5,146 | R +18.1 |
| Izard County | 1,295 | 3,492 | 183 | 4,970 | R +43.9 |
| Lawrence County | 1,345 | 3,351 | 206 | 4,902 | R +40.7 |
| Arkansas County | 1,875 | 2,759 | 99 | 4,733 | R +18.7 |
| Jackson County | 1,596 | 2,556 | 191 | 4,343 | R +21.7 |
| Phillips County | 2,966 | 1,225 | 121 | 4,312 | D +40.4 |
| Clay County | 1,290 | 2,844 | 145 | 4,279 | R +36.2 |
| Fulton County | 1,195 | 2,896 | 139 | 4,230 | R +40.1 |
| Little River County | 1,326 | 2,633 | 122 | 4,081 | R +31.8 |
| Sevier County | 1,080 | 2,734 | 114 | 3,928 | R +41.7 |
| Perry County | 1,197 | 2,478 | 185 | 3,860 | R +33.2 |
| Pike County | 848 | 2,836 | 110 | 3,794 | R +52.2 |
| Howard County | 1,388 | 2,328 | 76 | 3,792 | R +24.9 |
| Searcy County | 660 | 2,457 | 130 | 3,247 | R +55.0 |
| Montgomery County | 870 | 2,237 | 109 | 3,216 | R +42.4 |
| Chicot County | 1,995 | 1,123 | 54 | 3,172 | D +27.2 |
| Newton County | 823 | 2,194 | 123 | 3,140 | R +43.5 |
| Lincoln County | 1,163 | 1,838 | 89 | 3,090 | R +21.6 |
| Desha County | 1,837 | 1,141 | 74 | 3,052 | D +22.6 |
| Scott County | 614 | 2,245 | 148 | 3,007 | R +53.8 |
| Cleveland County | 725 | 2,066 | 101 | 2,892 | R +46.0 |
| Prairie County | 755 | 1,934 | 98 | 2,787 | R +41.8 |
| Bradley County | 1,154 | 1,505 | 74 | 2,733 | R +12.7 |
| Nevada County | 1,036 | 1,427 | 51 | 2,514 | R +15.6 |
| Lee County | 1,397 | 763 | 37 | 2,197 | D +28.8 |
| Monroe County | 1,123 | 958 | 58 | 2,139 | D +7.9 |
| Dallas County | 935 | 1,055 | 45 | 2,035 | R +5.7 |
| Woodruff County | 987 | 970 | 77 | 2,034 | D +1.0 |
| Lafayette County | 830 | 1,121 | 44 | 1,995 | R +14.6 |
| Calhoun County | 494 | 1,169 | 59 | 1,722 | R +38.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.