2026 forecast · Minnesota Governor
Amy Klobuchar is all but certain to win Minnesota's governorship.
Amy Klobuchar vs Lisa Demuth, an open seat. The model has Klobuchar ahead by 15.7 points, winning 99 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe DModel D +15.7Polls D +8.0Updated October 22, 2026
Amy Klobuchar
Democrat
56.2%
1,567,741 projected votes
Lisa Demuth
Republican
40.6%
1,131,474 projected votes
99%Klobuchar
1%Demuth
Klobuchar all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Klobuchar wins about 99 of 100
RatingSafe D99% chance for Klobuchar
Model marginD +15.7Polls D +8.0
80 percent rangeD +22.6 to D +8.52,000 simulations
Projected votes2,788,733Klobuchar 56.2%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Klobuchar +625,355 net votes from 21 countiesStatewide D +15.8, a 439,927 vote marginDemuth +185,428 net votes from 66 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Amy KlobucharDemocrat · 99% to win
3040506070
56.2%
Lisa DemuthRepublican · 1% to win
3040506070
40.6%
Other / write-inO
3040506070
3.2%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,788,733 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Amy Klobuchar D | 1,567,741 | 56.2% |
| Lisa Demuth R | 1,131,474 | 40.6% |
| Other / write-in O | 89,518 | 3.2% |
| Total | 2,788,733 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +22.6 and D +8.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
KSTP/SurveyUSAOct 12 · 650 LV · C+17%Klobuchar +7.0
TIPP InsightsSep 2 · 1,201 LV · A17%Klobuchar +10.0
KSTP/SurveyUSASep 14 · 654 LV · C+17%Klobuchar +7.0
Mason-Dixon for the Star TribuneOct 7 · 800 LV · D-17%Klobuchar +9.0
Morning ConsultOct 7 · 1,000 RV · C-17%Klobuchar +9.0
co/efficient (R)Sep 15 · 833 LV · C+8.4%Klobuchar +2.0
Every other poll together: 6.4%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +8.0 | |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 650 LV | 3d | D +7.048 to 41 |
| Mason-Dixon for the Star Tribune | 800 LV | 8d | D +9.050 to 41 |
| Mason-Dixon for KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune | 800 LV | 8d | D +9.8 |
| Morning Consult | 1,000 RV | 8d | D +9.048 to 39 |
| co/efficient (R) | 833 LV | 30d | D +2.047 to 45 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 654 LV | 31d | D +7.047 to 40 |
| TIPP Insights | 1,201 LV | 43d | D +10.050 to 40 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 661 LV | 59d | D +15.051 to 36 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Klobuchar +15.7
Chance of winning
Amy Klobuchar99%
Lisa Demuth1%
Simulated vote
Amy Klobuchar56.2%
Lisa Demuth40.6%
Other / write-in3.2%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +4.3
FundamentalsD +23.4
With pollsD +15.6
Early vote turnoutD +0.1
With early voteD +15.7
Read from 202,252 ballots cast so far in Minnesota, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
20 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Amy Klobuchar14
- Peggy FlanaganLieutenant Governor of Minnesotasource
- Pete ButtigiegFormer Transportation Secretarysource
- Angie CraigU.S. Rep., MN-02source
- End Citizens UnitedCampaign finance reform PACsource
- Education MinnesotaStatewide teachers unionsource
- United Steelworkers District 11Unionsource
- AFL-CIOLabor federationsource
- SEIU Minnesota State CouncilUnionsource
Lisa Demuth6
- Spencer IgoMinnesota state representativesource
- Carla NelsonMinnesota state senatorsource
- Bidal DuranMinnesota state representativesource
- NRA Political Victory FundNational Rifle Association political armsource
- Minnesota Gun Owners CaucusState gun rights groupsource
- Maggie's ListPAC supporting conservative women candidatessource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Klobuchar | Demuth |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 51.8 | 45.0 |
| Women | 54% | 60.0 | 36.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 60.5 | 36.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 56.2 | 40.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 53.8 | 43.0 |
| 65+ | 32% | 56.6 | 40.2 |
| RaceWhite | 85% | 51.7 | 45.1 |
| Black | 5% | 89.7 | 7.3 |
| Latino | 3% | 71.2 | 25.7 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 79.5 | 16.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 38% | 46.2 | 50.7 |
| White women | 46% | 56.3 | 40.5 |
| Black men | 2% | 88.9 | 8.0 |
| Black women | 3% | 90.4 | 6.6 |
| Latino men | 2% | 68.4 | 28.5 |
| Latino women | 2% | 73.9 | 23.0 |
| All other races | 7% | 79.5 | 16.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
87 counties| County | Klobuchar | Demuth | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,569,624 | 1,129,697 | 89,412 | 2,788,733 | D +15.8 |
| Hennepin County | 470,355 | 146,579 | 18,426 | 635,360 | D +51.2 |
| Ramsey County | 185,351 | 53,332 | 8,401 | 247,084 | D +53.7 |
| Dakota County | 133,932 | 81,446 | 6,661 | 222,039 | D +23.7 |
| Anoka County | 90,125 | 79,515 | 6,153 | 175,793 | D +6.1 |
| Washington County | 82,982 | 56,253 | 3,864 | 143,099 | D +18.7 |
| St. Louis County | 68,037 | 31,532 | 3,826 | 103,395 | D +35.2 |
| Olmsted County | 46,736 | 29,064 | 2,023 | 77,823 | D +22.7 |
| Scott County | 36,977 | 36,066 | 2,259 | 75,302 | D +1.2 |
| Stearns County | 27,815 | 43,809 | 2,521 | 74,145 | R +21.5 |
| Wright County | 27,025 | 42,480 | 2,447 | 71,952 | R +21.5 |
| Carver County | 28,006 | 28,056 | 1,496 | 57,558 | R +0.2 |
| Sherburne County | 16,635 | 28,960 | 1,653 | 47,248 | R +26.1 |
| Crow Wing County | 14,136 | 20,546 | 1,220 | 35,902 | R +18.0 |
| Rice County | 16,760 | 13,718 | 1,073 | 31,551 | D +9.5 |
| Blue Earth County | 16,142 | 13,971 | 1,092 | 31,205 | D +6.9 |
| Otter Tail County | 12,126 | 18,111 | 967 | 31,204 | R +19.4 |
| Chisago County | 12,213 | 15,642 | 1,070 | 28,925 | R +12.0 |
| Clay County | 15,774 | 10,407 | 1,119 | 27,300 | D +19.6 |
| Goodhue County | 12,708 | 11,321 | 820 | 24,849 | D +5.4 |
| Winona County | 11,929 | 10,962 | 806 | 23,697 | D +4.2 |
| Itasca County | 11,655 | 10,708 | 908 | 23,271 | D +3.9 |
| Douglas County | 7,174 | 13,628 | 599 | 21,401 | R +30.3 |
| Isanti County | 7,696 | 12,387 | 858 | 20,941 | R +22.5 |
| Beltrami County | 10,801 | 9,286 | 837 | 20,924 | D +7.3 |
| Kandiyohi County | 8,291 | 11,242 | 604 | 20,137 | R +14.9 |
| Benton County | 6,103 | 11,976 | 714 | 18,793 | R +31.4 |
| Steele County | 7,654 | 9,664 | 610 | 17,928 | R +11.3 |
| McLeod County | 5,398 | 11,861 | 626 | 17,885 | R +36.2 |
| Carlton County | 10,121 | 6,879 | 727 | 17,727 | D +18.1 |
| Morrison County | 3,999 | 12,509 | 528 | 17,036 | R +50.1 |
| Nicollet County | 8,748 | 7,625 | 506 | 16,879 | D +6.7 |
| Becker County | 6,046 | 9,995 | 565 | 16,606 | R +23.8 |
| Cass County | 6,591 | 9,412 | 563 | 16,566 | R +17.2 |
| Mower County | 8,641 | 6,917 | 564 | 16,122 | D +10.6 |
| Le Sueur County | 5,725 | 8,372 | 496 | 14,593 | R +18.1 |
| Freeborn County | 6,904 | 6,881 | 471 | 14,256 | Even |
| Pine County | 4,301 | 9,186 | 562 | 14,049 | R +34.8 |
| Polk County | 5,028 | 7,416 | 411 | 12,855 | R +18.6 |
| Brown County | 4,264 | 8,014 | 380 | 12,658 | R +29.8 |
| Mille Lacs County | 4,128 | 7,825 | 524 | 12,477 | R +29.7 |
| Todd County | 2,869 | 8,406 | 421 | 11,696 | R +47.4 |
| Meeker County | 3,609 | 7,658 | 409 | 11,676 | R +34.8 |
| Hubbard County | 4,732 | 6,492 | 395 | 11,619 | R +15.2 |
| Wabasha County | 5,011 | 6,118 | 380 | 11,509 | R +9.7 |
| Lyon County | 4,108 | 6,662 | 333 | 11,103 | R +23.2 |
| Fillmore County | 4,895 | 5,185 | 311 | 10,391 | R +2.8 |
| Dodge County | 4,324 | 5,645 | 340 | 10,309 | R +12.9 |
| Houston County | 4,635 | 4,671 | 307 | 9,613 | R +0.6 |
| Martin County | 3,019 | 5,868 | 304 | 9,191 | R +31.2 |
| Aitkin County | 3,690 | 5,040 | 308 | 9,038 | R +15.2 |
| Waseca County | 3,458 | 5,193 | 324 | 8,975 | R +19.4 |
| Kanabec County | 2,827 | 4,791 | 326 | 7,944 | R +24.8 |
| Sibley County | 2,115 | 4,859 | 252 | 7,226 | R +38.0 |
| Roseau County | 2,069 | 4,853 | 207 | 7,129 | R +38.9 |
| Redwood County | 1,964 | 4,937 | 199 | 7,100 | R +41.9 |
| Nobles County | 2,273 | 4,540 | 240 | 7,053 | R +32.1 |
| Renville County | 2,226 | 4,345 | 239 | 6,810 | R +31.1 |
| Wadena County | 1,891 | 4,558 | 213 | 6,662 | R +39.9 |
| Faribault County | 2,414 | 4,025 | 213 | 6,652 | R +24.3 |
| Pennington County | 2,510 | 3,335 | 275 | 6,120 | R +13.6 |
| Pope County | 2,478 | 3,457 | 177 | 6,112 | R +16.1 |
| Lake County | 3,705 | 2,143 | 200 | 6,048 | D +25.9 |
| Koochiching County | 2,660 | 2,944 | 216 | 5,820 | R +5.1 |
| Chippewa County | 2,193 | 3,035 | 178 | 5,406 | R +15.7 |
| Cottonwood County | 1,789 | 3,146 | 164 | 5,099 | R +26.6 |
| Jackson County | 1,595 | 3,120 | 176 | 4,891 | R +31.4 |
| Yellow Medicine County | 1,581 | 2,925 | 139 | 4,645 | R +28.9 |
| Rock County | 1,404 | 3,020 | 132 | 4,556 | R +35.5 |
| Stevens County | 1,711 | 2,601 | 129 | 4,441 | R +20.0 |
| Swift County | 1,600 | 2,634 | 131 | 4,365 | R +23.7 |
| Marshall County | 1,215 | 2,964 | 147 | 4,326 | R +40.3 |
| Watonwan County | 1,764 | 2,381 | 119 | 4,264 | R +14.3 |
| Pipestone County | 1,113 | 2,906 | 133 | 4,152 | R +43.3 |
| Murray County | 1,265 | 2,739 | 145 | 4,149 | R +35.7 |
| Clearwater County | 1,179 | 2,668 | 140 | 3,987 | R +37.3 |
| Lac qui Parle County | 1,347 | 1,945 | 112 | 3,404 | R +17.5 |
| Cook County | 2,415 | 838 | 114 | 3,367 | D +46.7 |
| Grant County | 1,245 | 1,729 | 121 | 3,095 | R +15.7 |
| Wilkin County | 1,007 | 1,744 | 105 | 2,856 | R +25.6 |
| Norman County | 1,185 | 1,498 | 126 | 2,809 | R +11.2 |
| Lincoln County | 895 | 1,727 | 90 | 2,712 | R +30.5 |
| Big Stone County | 996 | 1,446 | 91 | 2,533 | R +17.6 |
| Kittson County | 862 | 1,163 | 79 | 2,104 | R +14.3 |
| Lake of the Woods County | 625 | 1,287 | 70 | 1,982 | R +33.1 |
| Mahnomen County | 892 | 901 | 98 | 1,891 | R +0.1 |
| Red Lake County | 603 | 1,094 | 75 | 1,772 | R +27.5 |
| Traverse County | 629 | 908 | 59 | 1,596 | R +17.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.