2026 forecast · Arizona Superintendent Of Public Instruction
Teresa Leyba Ruiz is very likely to win Arizona's superintendent of public instruction race.
Teresa Leyba Ruiz vs Kimberly Yee, an open seat. The model has Ruiz ahead by 9.3 points, with a 95 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +9.3Polls D +2.9Updated October 22, 2026
Teresa Leyba Ruiz
Democrat
54.2%
1,725,519 projected votes
Kimberly Yee
Republican
44.8%
1,428,477 projected votes
95%Ruiz
5%Yee
Ruiz very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Ruiz wins about 95 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ruiz +447,774 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +9.3, a 297,043 vote marginYee +150,731 net votes from 10 counties
Projected statewide vote
3,185,856 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Teresa Leyba Ruiz D | 1,725,519 | 54.2% |
| Kimberly Yee R | 1,428,477 | 44.8% |
| Other candidates | 31,858 | 1.0% |
| Total | 3,185,856 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
15 counties| County | Ruiz | Yee | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,725,521 | 1,428,478 | 31,857 | 3,185,856 | D +9.3 |
| Maricopa County | 1,083,534 | 823,845 | 19,266 | 1,926,645 | D +13.5 |
| Pima County | 315,459 | 170,606 | 4,910 | 490,975 | D +29.5 |
| Pinal County | 77,737 | 111,790 | 1,914 | 191,441 | R +17.8 |
| Yavapai County | 50,115 | 87,268 | 1,387 | 138,770 | R +26.8 |
| Mohave County | 25,865 | 75,319 | 1,022 | 102,206 | R +48.4 |
| Coconino County | 45,789 | 21,875 | 683 | 68,347 | D +35.0 |
| Yuma County | 30,266 | 33,497 | 644 | 64,407 | R +5.0 |
| Cochise County | 24,377 | 31,161 | 561 | 56,099 | R +12.1 |
| Navajo County | 22,387 | 25,200 | 481 | 48,068 | R +5.8 |
| Apache County | 21,456 | 8,949 | 307 | 30,712 | D +40.7 |
| Gila County | 9,029 | 16,971 | 263 | 26,263 | R +30.2 |
| Santa Cruz County | 11,956 | 5,145 | 173 | 17,274 | D +39.4 |
| Graham County | 4,008 | 10,155 | 143 | 14,306 | R +43.0 |
| La Paz County | 2,217 | 4,853 | 71 | 7,141 | R +36.9 |
| Greenlee County | 1,326 | 1,844 | 32 | 3,202 | R +16.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +16.7 and D +2.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +13.2 |
| With polls, 37% weight | D +9.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +16.7 and D +2.0.
Polls of the race
5 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ruiz | Yee | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-10-08 | 44.7 | 38.3 | D +6.4 |
| HighGround | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 42 | 41 | D +1.0 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 42 | 45 | R +3.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 38 | 42 | R +4.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | 2026-08-13 | 37 | 40 | R +3.0 |