2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

Replaces party primaries for state offices with one primary listing all candidates, with the top two finishers advancing to the general election. The forecast has Yes at 51.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 60% chance to pass.

Leans passCitizen initiated statuteElectionsUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

60%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

51.2%

80% range 45 to 57

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

50.9%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 52.5% Yes
Polls: 50.9% Yes
Forecast: 51.2% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Coalition for Healthy Democracy (Danielle Allen) spent nearly $5M, top donors Randy Peeler over $1M and Andrew Balson nearly $800K; opposed by state Democratic and Republican parties and Voter Rights MA.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

92%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Question 3 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +63,375 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +2.4, a 63,375 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,687,745 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	1,375,560	51.2%
No	1,312,185	48.8%
Total	2,687,745	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Middlesex County	327,815	312,712	640,527	51.2%
Worcester County	163,153	155,636	318,789	51.2%
Essex County	156,437	149,230	305,667	51.2%
Norfolk County	153,286	146,224	299,510	51.2%
Suffolk County	126,169	120,356	246,525	51.2%
Plymouth County	115,727	110,395	226,122	51.2%
Bristol County	105,314	100,462	205,776	51.2%
Hampden County	80,829	77,105	157,934	51.2%
Barnstable County	59,882	57,123	117,005	51.2%
Hampshire County	35,402	33,771	69,173	51.2%
Berkshire County	27,183	25,930	53,113	51.2%
Franklin County	16,716	15,946	32,662	51.2%
Dukes County	4,887	4,662	9,549	51.2%
Nantucket County	2,760	2,633	5,393	51.2%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

7 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe	500 LV	2026-10-18	46.8	41.4	10.4	51.0%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	49	39	9	53.6%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	43	36	20	50.2%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	564 LV	2026-09-21	41	39	19	47.8%
Suffolk University Political Research Center	500 LV	2026-08-16	40.2	44.8	14.8	45.2%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	51	32	17	56.7%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	620 LV	2026-02-16	41

How this is built

Question 3 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.