2026 ballot measure forecast
Wisconsin Question 3
Ban government discrimination or preferences by race or sex
Bars government entities from discriminating against or giving preferential treatment to anyone based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public jobs, education, contracting and administration, effectively banning DEI preferences. The forecast has Yes at 55.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 71% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
71%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
55.6%80% range 42 to 68
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 55.6% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 55.6% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. AJR 102.
The campaign
Yes: Sen. Steve Nass, Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty. No: Wisconsin Democracy Campaign and civil rights advocates. No money reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +439,965 net votes from 69 countiesStatewide Yes +11.2, a 316,823 vote marginNo +123,142 net votes from 3 counties
Projected vote
2,825,649 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,571,236 | 55.6% |
| No | 1,254,413 | 44.4% |
| Total | 2,825,649 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee County | 170,280 | 222,082 | 392,362 | 43.4% |
| Dane County | 119,077 | 189,976 | 309,053 | 38.5% |
| Waukesha County | 139,907 | 86,970 | 226,877 | 61.7% |
| Brown County | 71,211 | 51,531 | 122,742 | 58.0% |
| Outagamie County | 53,737 | 37,629 | 91,366 | 58.8% |
| Racine County | 51,002 | 37,519 | 88,521 | 57.6% |
| Winnebago County | 45,565 | 34,102 | 79,667 | 57.2% |
| Washington County | 49,760 | 24,850 | 74,610 | 66.7% |
| Kenosha County | 42,236 | 31,040 | 73,276 | 57.6% |
| Rock County | 38,421 | 33,301 | 71,722 | 53.6% |
| Marathon County | 39,927 | 25,171 | 65,098 | 61.3% |
| La Crosse County | 31,363 | 27,879 | 59,242 | 52.9% |
| Sheboygan County | 34,092 | 22,115 | 56,207 | 60.7% |
| Ozaukee County | 30,933 | 21,582 | 52,515 | 58.9% |
| Eau Claire County | 27,340 | 24,675 | 52,015 | 52.6% |
| Walworth County | 30,973 | 18,663 | 49,636 | 62.4% |
| Fond du Lac County | 31,290 | 17,331 | 48,621 | 64.4% |
| St. Croix County | 29,079 | 18,161 | 47,240 | 61.6% |
| Dodge County | 27,198 | 14,221 | 41,419 | 65.7% |
| Jefferson County | 24,938 | 16,171 | 41,109 | 60.7% |
| Manitowoc County | 23,986 | 14,236 | 38,222 | 62.8% |
| Portage County | 19,761 | 15,900 | 35,661 | 55.4% |
| Wood County | 21,401 | 13,275 | 34,676 | 61.7% |
| Chippewa County | 19,554 | 11,671 | 31,225 | 62.6% |
| Sauk County | 17,324 | 13,462 | 30,786 | 56.3% |
| Columbia County | 16,444 | 12,331 | 28,775 | 57.1% |
| Calumet County | 16,310 | 10,110 | 26,420 | 61.7% |
| Waupaca County | 16,248 | 8,450 | 24,698 | 65.8% |
| Polk County | 14,462 | 7,772 | 22,234 | 65.0% |
| Grant County | 13,594 | 8,619 | 22,213 | 61.2% |
| Barron County | 14,131 | 7,696 | 21,827 | 64.7% |
| Oneida County | 12,692 | 8,107 | 20,799 | 61.0% |
| Dunn County | 12,467 | 8,136 | 20,603 | 60.5% |
| Douglas County | 11,139 | 9,426 | 20,565 | 54.2% |
| Oconto County | 13,834 | 6,275 | 20,109 | 68.8% |
| Pierce County | 12,189 | 7,840 | 20,029 | 60.9% |
| Marinette County | 13,386 | 6,529 | 19,915 | 67.2% |
| Shawano County | 12,761 | 6,374 | 19,135 | 66.7% |
| Monroe County | 12,011 | 6,884 | 18,895 | 63.6% |
| Green County | 10,188 | 8,106 | 18,294 | 55.7% |
| Door County | 9,729 | 7,926 | 17,655 | 55.1% |
| Lincoln County | 8,956 | 5,191 | 14,147 | 63.3% |
| Vernon County | 8,033 | 5,791 | 13,824 | 58.1% |
| Vilas County | 8,471 | 5,052 | 13,523 | 62.6% |
| Trempealeau County | 8,059 | 4,906 | 12,965 | 62.2% |
| Clark County | 8,540 | 4,082 | 12,622 | 67.7% |
| Iowa County | 6,456 | 5,621 | 12,077 | 53.5% |
| Waushara County | 7,892 | 4,003 | 11,895 | 66.3% |
| Juneau County | 7,682 | 4,065 | 11,747 | 65.4% |
| Adams County | 6,773 | 3,843 | 10,616 | 63.8% |
| Kewaunee County | 6,745 | 3,491 | 10,236 | 65.9% |
| Langlade County | 6,305 | 3,224 | 9,529 | 66.2% |
| Bayfield County | 4,968 | 4,518 | 9,486 | 52.4% |
| Sawyer County | 5,569 | 3,614 | 9,183 | 60.6% |
| Taylor County | 6,472 | 2,705 | 9,177 | 70.5% |
| Green Lake County | 6,099 | 3,045 | 9,144 | 66.7% |
| Washburn County | 5,699 | 3,176 | 8,875 | 64.2% |
| Burnett County | 5,687 | 3,056 | 8,743 | 65.0% |
| Jackson County | 5,376 | 3,353 | 8,729 | 61.6% |
| Marquette County | 4,977 | 2,722 | 7,699 | 64.6% |
| Richland County | 4,548 | 3,072 | 7,620 | 59.7% |
| Crawford County | 4,467 | 2,992 | 7,459 | 59.9% |
| Ashland County | 4,031 | 3,385 | 7,416 | 54.4% |
| Price County | 4,743 | 2,545 | 7,288 | 65.1% |
| Lafayette County | 4,404 | 2,722 | 7,126 | 61.8% |
| Rusk County | 4,530 | 2,208 | 6,738 | 67.2% |
| Buffalo County | 4,218 | 2,286 | 6,504 | 64.9% |
| Forest County | 2,844 | 1,483 | 4,327 | 65.7% |
| Pepin County | 2,272 | 1,251 | 3,523 | 64.5% |
| Iron County | 2,147 | 1,230 | 3,377 | 63.6% |
| Florence County | 1,841 | 754 | 2,595 | 70.9% |
| Menominee County | 492 | 933 | 1,425 | 34.5% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 3 is forecast as a civil rights measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Wisconsin's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wpr.org, somerswi.gov, will-law.org. All measures.