2026 forecast · Nevada Lieutenant Governor
Sandra Jauregui is slightly favored to win Nevada's lieutenant governor race.
Sandra Jauregui vs Stavros Anthony, with Stavros Anthony running again. The model has Jauregui ahead by 3.2 points, with a 69 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +3.2Polls D +3.8Updated October 22, 2026
Sandra Jauregui
Democrat
47.9%
590,546 projected votes
Stavros Anthony
Republican
44.7%
551,036 projected votes
69%Jauregui
31%Anthony
Jauregui favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Jauregui wins about 69 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Jauregui +104,459 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide D +3.2, a 39,510 vote marginAnthony +64,949 net votes from 15 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,232,832 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Sandra Jauregui D | 590,546 | 47.9% |
| Stavros Anthony R | 551,036 | 44.7% |
| Janine Hansen | 91,249 | 7.4% |
| Total | 1,232,832 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
17 counties| County | Jauregui | Anthony | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 590,546 | 551,036 | 91,250 | 1,232,832 | D +3.2 |
| Clark County | 443,918 | 342,584 | 62,866 | 849,368 | D +11.9 |
| Washoe County | 104,334 | 101,209 | 16,430 | 221,973 | D +1.4 |
| Douglas County | 8,676 | 19,246 | 2,232 | 30,154 | R +35.1 |
| Lyon County | 6,466 | 19,106 | 2,044 | 27,616 | R +45.8 |
| Carson City | 10,634 | 13,917 | 1,962 | 26,513 | R +12.4 |
| Nye County | 6,277 | 15,475 | 1,739 | 23,491 | R +39.2 |
| Elko County | 3,416 | 14,224 | 1,410 | 19,050 | R +56.7 |
| Churchill County | 2,283 | 8,242 | 841 | 11,366 | R +52.4 |
| Humboldt County | 1,311 | 5,071 | 510 | 6,892 | R +54.6 |
| White Pine County | 700 | 2,820 | 282 | 3,802 | R +55.8 |
| Storey County | 677 | 1,681 | 189 | 2,547 | R +39.4 |
| Lander County | 369 | 1,842 | 177 | 2,388 | R +61.7 |
| Lincoln County | 267 | 1,821 | 167 | 2,255 | R +68.9 |
| Pershing County | 450 | 1,530 | 158 | 2,138 | R +50.5 |
| Mineral County | 642 | 1,222 | 149 | 2,013 | R +28.8 |
| Eureka County | 65 | 707 | 61 | 833 | R +77.1 |
| Esmeralda County | 61 | 339 | 33 | 433 | R +64.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +11.3 and R +4.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +3.0 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +11.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +3.4 |
| With polls, 15% weight | D +3.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +11.3 and R +4.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Jauregui | Anthony | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse) | 708 LV | 2026-09-26 | 41 | 38 | D +3.0 |