2026 forecast · Vermont Auditor
Tim Ashe is very likely to win Vermont's auditor race.
Tim Ashe vs Ivar Kronick, an open seat. The model has Ashe ahead by 9.4 points, with a 91 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +9.4Updated October 22, 2026
Tim Ashe
Democrat
53.7%
176,729 projected votes
Ivar Kronick
Republican
44.2%
145,621 projected votes
91%Ashe
9%Kronick
Ashe very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Ashe wins about 91 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ashe +47,832 net votes from 7 countiesStatewide D +9.4, a 31,109 vote marginKronick +16,723 net votes from 7 counties
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Ashe D | 176,729 | 53.7% |
| Ivar Kronick R | 145,621 | 44.2% |
| Other candidates | 6,871 | 2.1% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Ashe | Kronick | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 176,731 | 145,622 | 6,870 | 329,223 | D +9.4 |
| Chittenden County | 55,258 | 31,371 | 1,847 | 88,476 | D +27.0 |
| Washington County | 18,826 | 12,179 | 660 | 31,665 | D +21.0 |
| Windsor County | 17,088 | 12,750 | 636 | 30,474 | D +14.2 |
| Rutland County | 11,798 | 17,682 | 629 | 30,109 | R +19.5 |
| Windham County | 15,619 | 7,192 | 486 | 23,297 | D +36.2 |
| Franklin County | 8,682 | 14,009 | 484 | 23,175 | R +23.0 |
| Addison County | 11,064 | 8,755 | 423 | 20,242 | D +11.4 |
| Bennington County | 9,522 | 8,446 | 383 | 18,351 | D +5.9 |
| Orange County | 7,583 | 7,696 | 325 | 15,604 | R +0.7 |
| Caledonia County | 6,408 | 8,026 | 307 | 14,741 | R +11.0 |
| Lamoille County | 7,014 | 5,866 | 275 | 13,155 | D +8.7 |
| Orleans County | 5,003 | 7,496 | 267 | 12,766 | R +19.5 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,888 | 2,330 | 89 | 4,307 | R +10.3 |
| Essex County | 978 | 1,824 | 59 | 2,861 | R +29.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.5 and D +0.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +8.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +40.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +9.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.7 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +9.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.5 and D +0.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ashe | Kronick | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||