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2026 forecast · California Governor

Xavier Becerra is all but certain to win California's governorship.

Xavier Becerra vs Steve Hilton, an open seat. The model has Becerra ahead by 35.5 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +35.5Polls D +52.1Updated October 22, 2026
Xavier Becerra
Democrat
67.2%
9,073,006 projected votes
Steve Hilton
Republican
31.7%
4,279,571 projected votes
100%Becerra
0%Hilton
Becerra all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Becerra wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Becerra
Model marginD +35.5Polls D +52.1
80 percent rangeD +42.3 to D +29.02,000 simulations
Projected votes13,496,995Becerra 67.2%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

California Governor by county

San Benito CountyShasta CountySierra CountyFresno CountyAmador CountyEl Dorado CountyMonterey CountySan Bernardino CountyTehama CountyNevada CountyTuolumne CountySanta Barbara CountyTrinity CountyStanislaus CountyColusa CountyAlpine CountySiskiyou CountyDel Norte CountyInyo CountySan Joaquin CountyImperial CountyCalaveras CountyButte CountyMadera CountyVentura CountyOrange CountyKern CountyContra Costa CountyKings CountyMendocino CountySonoma CountyYuba CountyMerced CountyTulare CountySacramento CountySolano CountySan Francisco CountyMariposa CountyMarin CountySutter CountyLassen CountyRiverside CountyPlumas CountySanta Clara CountyPlacer CountySan Luis Obispo CountySan Mateo CountyMono CountySan Diego CountyNapa CountyAlameda CountyYolo CountyLake CountyLos Angeles CountyGlenn CountySanta Cruz CountyHumboldt CountyModoc CountyLos AngelesSan DiegoOrangeRiversideSanta ClaraSan BernardinoAlamedaSacramentoContra CostaVenturaSan MateoFresno
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Los Angeles County: Becerra +1,611,309Alameda County: Becerra +410,809San Diego County: Becerra +380,243Santa Clara County: Becerra +354,699San Francisco County: Becerra +299,917Contra Costa County: Becerra +222,248Sacramento County: Becerra +198,751Orange County: Becerra +190,824San Mateo County: Becerra +180,203Sonoma County: Becerra +122,364Riverside County: Becerra +109,013San Bernardino County: Becerra +96,655Marin County: Becerra +90,222Ventura County: Becerra +76,769Santa Cruz County: Becerra +73,330Solano County: Becerra +61,206Santa Barbara County: Becerra +55,582Monterey County: Becerra +55,144San Joaquin County: Becerra +40,672Yolo County: Becerra +37,895San Luis Obispo County: Becerra +29,260Fresno County: Becerra +28,870Napa County: Becerra +24,145Stanislaus County: Becerra +21,478Humboldt County: Becerra +20,896Mendocino County: Becerra +15,021Nevada County: Becerra +12,439Imperial County: Becerra +9,679Merced County: Becerra +8,895Butte County: Becerra +6,970San Benito County: Becerra +6,345Lake County: Becerra +4,422Placer County: Becerra +1,969Mono County: Becerra +1,861Inyo County: Becerra +921El Dorado County: Becerra +482Alpine County: Becerra +273Trinity County: Becerra +244Shasta County: Hilton +15,881Kern County: Hilton +8,796Tehama County: Hilton +5,939Tulare County: Hilton +3,978Lassen County: Hilton +3,799Madera County: Hilton +3,592Sutter County: Hilton +2,848Calaveras County: Hilton +2,341Amador County: Hilton +2,201Glenn County: Hilton +1,827Kings County: Hilton +1,758Yuba County: Hilton +1,630Modoc County: Hilton +1,333Colusa County: Hilton +921Tuolumne County: Hilton +853Siskiyou County: Hilton +676Mariposa County: Hilton +484Sierra County: Hilton +133Plumas County: Hilton +62Del Norte County: Hilton +11
Becerra +4,862,025 net votes from 38 countiesStatewide D +35.6, a 4,802,962 vote marginHilton +59,063 net votes from 20 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Xavier BecerraDemocrat · 100% to win
67.2%
Steve HiltonRepublican · 0% to win
31.7%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

13,496,995 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Xavier Becerra D9,073,00667.2%
Steve Hilton R4,279,57131.7%
Write-in O144,4181.1%
Total13,496,995100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +56.0: 1 simulationsD +54.9: 0 simulationsD +53.8: 0 simulationsD +52.6: 1 simulationsD +51.5: 1 simulationsD +50.4: 4 simulationsD +49.3: 1 simulationsD +48.1: 6 simulationsD +47.0: 16 simulationsD +45.9: 19 simulationsD +44.8: 30 simulationsD +43.6: 64 simulationsD +42.5: 83 simulationsD +41.4: 92 simulationsD +40.3: 107 simulationsD +39.1: 159 simulationsD +38.0: 153 simulationsD +36.9: 156 simulationsD +35.8: 157 simulationsD +34.6: 174 simulationsD +33.5: 182 simulationsD +32.4: 132 simulationsD +31.3: 122 simulationsD +30.1: 92 simulationsD +29.0: 79 simulationsD +27.9: 44 simulationsD +26.8: 39 simulationsD +25.6: 22 simulationsD +24.5: 12 simulationsD +23.4: 18 simulationsD +22.3: 11 simulationsD +21.1: 10 simulationsD +20.0: 6 simulationsD +18.9: 1 simulationsD +17.8: 1 simulationsD +16.6: 1 simulationsD +15.5: 1 simulationsD +14.4: 2 simulationsD +13.3: 0 simulationsD +12.1: 1 simulationsD +56.6D +11.6

80 percent of simulations fall between D +42.3 and D +29.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Becerra0% Hilton30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The California governor polling average
25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%JunJulAugSepOct54.7Becerra36.0Hilton
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Manhattan InstituteOct 1 · 1,000 LV · NR16%Becerra +19.0
PPICSep 10 · 1,103 LV · NR16%Becerra +22.0
Independent Voter ProjectOct 2 · 2,906 LV · NR15%Becerra +10.0
Emerson CollegeOct 19 · 1,000 LV · Gold14%Becerra +27.0
Independent Voter ProjectSep 28 · 2,906 LV · NR13%Becerra +10.0
UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/PoliticoSep 14 · 1,983 LV · B11%Becerra +18.0
Every other poll together: 15%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +52.1
ActiVote400 LV0dD +25.662.8 to 37.2
Emerson College1,000 LV0dD +27.060 to 33
David Wolfson for Hilton (R)1,020 RV13dD +5.645.7 to 40.1
Manhattan Institute1,000 LV14dD +19.057 to 38
Independent Voter Project2,906 LV17dD +10.048 to 38
Berkeley IGS4,512 LV25dD +25.058 to 33
SurveyUSA742 LV25dD +22.055 to 33
UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico1,983 LV31dD +18.054 to 36
PPIC1,103 LV35dD +22.060 to 38
David Wolfson for Hilton (R)912 RV58dD +8.249.2 to 41
Berkeley IGS2,310 LV67dD +18.055 to 37
PPIC1,003 LV101dD +25.061 to 36
Kreate Strategies900 LV120dD +25.058 to 33
CEPP735 LV142dD +23.058 to 35
Berkeley IGS8,578 RV144dD +21.052 to 31

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Becerra +35.5
Chance of winning
Xavier Becerra100%
Steve Hilton0%
Simulated vote
Xavier Becerra67.2%
Steve Hilton31.7%
Write-in1.1%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +20.8
FundamentalsD +20.2
With pollsD +34.4
Early vote turnoutD +1.1
With early voteD +35.5

Read from 1,973,289 ballots cast so far in California, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

26 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Xavier Becerra17
  • Gavin NewsomGovernor of Californiasource
  • Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
  • Antonio VillaraigosaFormer Mayor of Los Angeles, primary rivalsource
  • Jim ClyburnU.S. Rep., SC-06, former House Majority Whipsource
  • Ted LieuU.S. Rep., CA-36source
  • Mark TakanoU.S. Rep., CA-39source
  • Raul RuizU.S. Rep., CA-25source
  • Robert RivasSpeaker of the California Assemblysource
Steve Hilton9
  • Donald TrumpPresidentsource
  • JD VanceVice Presidentsource
  • Kevin KileyU.S. Rep., CA-03source
  • Tom McClintockU.S. Rep., CA-05source
  • Vivek RamaswamyOhio GOP governor nomineesource
  • Jon VoightActor, special ambassador to Hollywoodsource
  • Phil MickelsonProfessional golfersource
  • Spencer PrattReality TV star, LA mayoral candidatesource
On the air

Brian Tyler Cohen: Interviewed Xavier Becerra, whom the episode called the future governor of California. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +43R +43Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +20.8Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +20.2With pollsaverage D +52.1D +34.4With early voteturnout so farD +35.5

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareBecerraHilton
GenderMen49%55.044.0
Women51%60.838.2
Age18 to 2915%56.842.1
30 to 4424%54.744.2
45 to 6432%57.941.0
65+30%61.137.9
RaceWhite46%45.054.0
Black6%82.516.6
Latino28%60.938.1
Asian and other20%76.022.8
Race and genderWhite men21%37.961.1
White women25%51.047.9
Black men3%79.119.9
Black women3%85.313.7
Latino men15%58.240.8
Latino women14%63.735.3
All other races20%76.022.8

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

58 counties
CountyBecerraHiltonOtherTotalMargin
Statewide9,078,8354,275,873142,28713,496,995D +35.6
Los Angeles County2,366,953755,64431,5423,154,139D +51.1
San Diego County810,944430,70112,5421,254,187D +30.3
Orange County673,295482,47112,8551,168,621D +16.4
Riverside County434,073325,0608,443767,576D +14.3
Santa Clara County500,092145,3937,179652,664D +54.3
San Bernardino County353,179256,5246,158615,861D +15.7
Alameda County499,23188,4226,536594,189D +69.1
Sacramento County382,713183,9626,303572,978D +34.6
Contra Costa County337,161114,9135,029457,103D +48.6
San Francisco County327,06827,1513,939358,158D +83.7
Ventura County200,287123,5183,602327,407D +23.4
San Mateo County233,36253,1593,187289,708D +62.2
Fresno County152,789123,9193,078279,786D +10.3
Kern County112,636121,4322,364236,432R +3.7
San Joaquin County131,26190,5892,241224,091D +18.2
Sonoma County169,90847,5442,418219,870D +55.7
Placer County100,23898,2692,208200,715D +1.0
Stanislaus County91,02969,5511,786162,366D +13.2
Solano County110,51049,3041,614161,428D +37.9
Santa Barbara County106,56650,9841,752159,302D +34.9
San Luis Obispo County80,09350,8331,322132,248D +22.2
Marin County108,72718,5051,415128,647D +70.2
Monterey County89,63534,4911,254125,380D +44.0
Santa Cruz County95,06821,7381,299118,105D +62.2
Tulare County54,93058,9081,266115,104R +3.4
El Dorado County47,88347,4011,06096,344D +0.5
Butte County44,40637,43691082,752D +8.5
Yolo County59,62321,72890582,256D +46.1
Shasta County29,58845,46975875,815R +20.9
Merced County39,64830,75378371,184D +12.4
Napa County40,27516,13062857,033D +42.3
Humboldt County38,03717,14155855,736D +37.5
Nevada County33,04020,60159654,237D +22.9
Madera County20,54924,14149745,187R +8.0
Imperial County25,38315,70441541,502D +23.3
Kings County16,63218,39039035,412R +5.1
Mendocino County24,5489,52737934,454D +43.6
Sutter County14,77817,62636132,765R +8.6
Tuolumne County12,02612,87925225,157R +3.4
Yuba County11,43713,06724724,751R +6.6
Lake County13,7209,29825623,274D +19.0
San Benito County14,5408,19525322,988D +27.5
Tehama County8,31214,25125122,814R +26.0
Calaveras County10,06112,40224922,712R +10.3
Amador County8,64710,84821719,712R +11.2
Siskiyou County9,0089,68418918,881R +3.6
Lassen County3,0686,86710110,036R +37.8
Del Norte County4,6814,692949,467R +0.1
Plumas County4,4054,467988,970R +0.7
Glenn County3,4475,274888,809R +20.8
Mariposa County3,8704,354918,315R +5.7
Inyo County4,4153,494887,997D +11.5
Colusa County2,5493,470676,086R +15.2
Trinity County2,7142,470585,242D +4.5
Mono County3,5191,658585,235D +35.5
Modoc County1,1142,447363,597R +37.1
Sierra County702835151,552R +8.8
Alpine County4621897658D +41.3

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.