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2026 forecast · Arizona Corporation Commission

Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill is very likely to win Arizona's corporation commission race.

Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill vs Kevin Thompson and Ralph Heap, with Kevin Thompson; Nick Myers running again. The model has Hill ahead by 8.9 points, with a 92 percent chance of winning.

Likely DModel D +8.9Polls R +6.3Updated October 22, 2026
Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill
Democrat
53.7%
1,710,682 projected votes
Kevin Thompson and Ralph Heap
Republican
44.8%
1,427,271 projected votes
92%Hill
8%Heap
Hill very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Hill wins about 92 of 100

Arizona Corporation Commission by county

Mohave CountySanta Cruz CountyCoconino CountyLa Paz CountyGila CountyPima CountyGreenlee CountyPinal CountyNavajo CountyYuma CountyMaricopa CountyGraham CountyCochise CountyApache CountyYavapai CountyMaricopaPimaPinalYavapaiMohaveCoconinoYumaCochiseNavajoApacheGilaSanta Cruz
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Maricopa County: Hill +250,868Pima County: Hill +142,368Coconino County: Hill +23,563Apache County: Hill +12,349Santa Cruz County: Hill +6,721Mohave County: Heap +49,541Yavapai County: Heap +37,502Pinal County: Heap +34,637Gila County: Heap +8,001Cochise County: Heap +6,975Graham County: Heap +6,165Yuma County: Heap +3,471Navajo County: Heap +2,987La Paz County: Heap +2,648Greenlee County: Heap +529
Hill +435,869 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +8.9, a 283,413 vote marginHeap +152,456 net votes from 10 counties

Projected statewide vote

3,185,856 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill D1,710,68253.7%
Kevin Thompson and Ralph Heap R1,427,27144.8%
Mike Cease47,9021.5%
Total3,185,856100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

15 counties
CountyHillHeapOtherTotalMargin
Statewide1,710,6841,427,27147,9013,185,856D +8.9
Maricopa County1,074,272823,40428,9691,926,645D +13.0
Pima County312,980170,6127,383490,975D +29.0
Pinal County76,963111,6002,878191,441R +18.1
Yavapai County49,59187,0932,086138,770R +27.0
Mohave County25,56475,1051,537102,206R +48.5
Coconino County45,44121,8781,02868,347D +34.5
Yuma County29,98433,45596864,407R +5.4
Cochise County24,14031,11584456,099R +12.4
Navajo County22,17925,16672348,068R +6.2
Apache County21,3008,95146130,712D +40.2
Gila County8,93416,93539426,263R +30.5
Santa Cruz County11,8685,14725917,274D +38.9
Graham County3,96310,12821514,306R +43.1
La Paz County2,1934,8411077,141R +37.1
Greenlee County1,3121,841493,202R +16.5

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +17.0D +0.8D +8.9

80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.0 and D +0.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +12.7
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +12.6
Blend of every legD +13.2
With incumbency and primary unityD +9.8
With polls, 5% weightD +8.9

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.0 and D +0.8.

Polls of the race

1 poll
R+10R+8R+6R+4R+2EvenD+2SepOctHill aheadHeap aheadStealth Analytics, 530, R +7.0, 70 days agoR +7.0poll trendR +6.3average
PollsterSampleEndedHillHeapMargin
Stealth Analytics530 LV2026-08-133138R +7.0