2026 forecast · Michigan State Board Of Education
Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley is all but certain to win Michigan's state board of education race.
Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley vs Terence Collins and Bree Moeggenberg, with Judith Pritchett; Tiffany Tilley running again. The model has Tilley ahead by 16.2 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +16.2Updated October 22, 2026
Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley
Democrat
55.6%
2,760,940 projected votes
Terence Collins and Bree Moeggenberg
Republican
39.4%
1,955,528 projected votes
100%Tilley
0%Moeggenberg
Tilley all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Tilley wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Tilley +1,016,078 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide D +16.2, a 805,409 vote marginMoeggenberg +210,669 net votes from 59 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,962,234 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley D | 2,760,940 | 55.6% |
| Terence Collins and Bree Moeggenberg R | 1,955,528 | 39.4% |
| Charles Essner, William Mohr II, Christine C. Schwartz, Wissam Charafeddine, Mary Anne Hering, Kelli Monroe | 245,765 | 5.0% |
| Total | 4,962,234 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
83 counties| County | Tilley | Moeggenberg | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,760,936 | 1,955,527 | 245,771 | 4,962,234 | D +16.2 |
| Wayne County | 552,499 | 162,330 | 37,248 | 752,077 | D +51.9 |
| Oakland County | 429,025 | 224,302 | 34,043 | 687,370 | D +29.8 |
| Macomb County | 225,293 | 185,832 | 21,422 | 432,547 | D +9.1 |
| Kent County | 187,400 | 126,147 | 16,339 | 329,886 | D +18.6 |
| Washtenaw County | 155,278 | 37,882 | 10,065 | 203,225 | D +57.8 |
| Genesee County | 112,538 | 70,212 | 9,523 | 192,273 | D +22.0 |
| Ottawa County | 65,812 | 84,469 | 7,831 | 158,112 | R +11.8 |
| Ingham County | 95,503 | 34,187 | 6,758 | 136,448 | D +44.9 |
| Kalamazoo County | 82,301 | 42,568 | 6,507 | 131,376 | D +30.2 |
| Livingston County | 50,551 | 57,078 | 5,609 | 113,238 | R +5.8 |
| Saginaw County | 47,452 | 38,574 | 4,483 | 90,509 | D +9.8 |
| Muskegon County | 45,058 | 33,470 | 4,092 | 82,620 | D +14.0 |
| St. Clair County | 32,963 | 44,949 | 4,060 | 81,972 | R +14.6 |
| Monroe County | 33,822 | 39,684 | 3,830 | 77,336 | R +7.6 |
| Jackson County | 32,958 | 36,522 | 3,620 | 73,100 | R +4.9 |
| Berrien County | 36,017 | 33,379 | 3,616 | 73,012 | D +3.6 |
| Allegan County | 25,031 | 34,027 | 3,077 | 62,135 | R +14.5 |
| Calhoun County | 28,365 | 27,682 | 2,921 | 58,968 | D +1.2 |
| Eaton County | 31,492 | 23,348 | 2,858 | 57,698 | D +14.1 |
| Grand Traverse County | 30,102 | 22,949 | 2,765 | 55,816 | D +12.8 |
| Bay County | 25,981 | 24,625 | 2,637 | 53,243 | D +2.5 |
| Lenawee County | 20,448 | 24,728 | 2,354 | 47,530 | R +9.0 |
| Lapeer County | 17,024 | 27,970 | 2,344 | 47,338 | R +23.1 |
| Midland County | 20,591 | 21,707 | 2,204 | 44,502 | R +2.5 |
| Clinton County | 22,826 | 18,960 | 2,178 | 43,964 | D +8.8 |
| Van Buren County | 16,911 | 16,765 | 1,754 | 35,430 | D +0.4 |
| Marquette County | 20,869 | 12,574 | 1,743 | 35,186 | D +23.6 |
| Shiawassee County | 15,673 | 17,635 | 1,736 | 35,044 | R +5.6 |
| Barry County | 12,713 | 18,834 | 1,645 | 33,192 | R +18.4 |
| Ionia County | 11,846 | 16,722 | 1,490 | 30,058 | R +16.2 |
| Montcalm County | 10,632 | 17,779 | 1,481 | 29,892 | R +23.9 |
| Isabella County | 14,705 | 12,136 | 1,399 | 28,240 | D +9.1 |
| Tuscola County | 8,770 | 16,210 | 1,302 | 26,282 | R +28.3 |
| St. Joseph County | 9,221 | 14,616 | 1,243 | 25,080 | R +21.5 |
| Newaygo County | 8,143 | 15,600 | 1,237 | 24,980 | R +29.9 |
| Cass County | 8,854 | 13,530 | 1,167 | 23,551 | R +19.9 |
| Hillsdale County | 6,233 | 13,830 | 1,046 | 21,109 | R +36.0 |
| Emmet County | 9,956 | 9,363 | 1,007 | 20,326 | D +2.9 |
| Sanilac County | 6,193 | 13,061 | 1,004 | 20,258 | R +33.9 |
| Mecosta County | 7,680 | 10,969 | 972 | 19,621 | R +16.8 |
| Delta County | 7,625 | 10,362 | 938 | 18,925 | R +14.5 |
| Branch County | 6,337 | 11,096 | 908 | 18,341 | R +25.9 |
| Gratiot County | 6,903 | 9,776 | 869 | 17,548 | R +16.4 |
| Houghton County | 8,306 | 8,353 | 867 | 17,526 | R +0.3 |
| Wexford County | 6,058 | 9,748 | 824 | 16,630 | R +22.2 |
| Chippewa County | 7,137 | 8,499 | 814 | 16,450 | R +8.3 |
| Huron County | 5,499 | 9,943 | 804 | 16,246 | R +27.4 |
| Mason County | 6,873 | 8,166 | 784 | 15,823 | R +8.2 |
| Charlevoix County | 7,119 | 7,592 | 767 | 15,478 | R +3.0 |
| Leelanau County | 8,701 | 5,821 | 756 | 15,278 | D +18.9 |
| Alpena County | 6,170 | 8,087 | 742 | 14,999 | R +12.8 |
| Clare County | 5,186 | 8,797 | 729 | 14,712 | R +24.6 |
| Antrim County | 6,213 | 7,627 | 720 | 14,560 | R +9.7 |
| Cheboygan County | 5,676 | 7,966 | 711 | 14,353 | R +15.9 |
| Roscommon County | 5,351 | 7,819 | 686 | 13,856 | R +17.8 |
| Otsego County | 5,089 | 7,866 | 676 | 13,631 | R +20.4 |
| Iosco County | 5,461 | 7,487 | 675 | 13,623 | R +14.9 |
| Manistee County | 6,330 | 6,570 | 673 | 13,573 | R +1.8 |
| Dickinson County | 4,851 | 7,682 | 653 | 13,186 | R +21.5 |
| Gladwin County | 4,565 | 7,937 | 652 | 13,154 | R +25.6 |
| Oceana County | 5,159 | 7,244 | 647 | 13,050 | R +16.0 |
| Osceola County | 3,300 | 7,448 | 560 | 11,308 | R +36.7 |
| Benzie County | 5,695 | 4,896 | 551 | 11,142 | D +7.2 |
| Menominee County | 4,223 | 6,284 | 547 | 11,054 | R +18.6 |
| Ogemaw County | 3,731 | 6,540 | 536 | 10,807 | R +26.0 |
| Kalkaska County | 3,310 | 5,896 | 480 | 9,686 | R +26.7 |
| Missaukee County | 2,065 | 5,474 | 393 | 7,932 | R +43.0 |
| Arenac County | 2,798 | 4,607 | 385 | 7,790 | R +23.2 |
| Presque Isle County | 3,100 | 4,190 | 380 | 7,670 | R +14.2 |
| Gogebic County | 3,459 | 3,379 | 357 | 7,195 | D +1.1 |
| Crawford County | 2,723 | 4,088 | 355 | 7,166 | R +19.1 |
| Mackinac County | 2,780 | 3,521 | 328 | 6,629 | R +11.2 |
| Alcona County | 2,155 | 3,872 | 313 | 6,340 | R +27.1 |
| Iron County | 2,577 | 3,232 | 303 | 6,112 | R +10.7 |
| Lake County | 2,332 | 3,293 | 294 | 5,919 | R +16.2 |
| Montmorency County | 1,722 | 3,467 | 270 | 5,459 | R +32.0 |
| Alger County | 2,124 | 2,307 | 231 | 4,662 | R +3.9 |
| Oscoda County | 1,402 | 2,765 | 217 | 4,384 | R +31.1 |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,637 | 2,372 | 209 | 4,218 | R +17.4 |
| Baraga County | 1,503 | 2,116 | 188 | 3,807 | R +16.1 |
| Ontonagon County | 1,419 | 1,808 | 168 | 3,395 | R +11.5 |
| Luce County | 862 | 1,681 | 132 | 2,675 | R +30.6 |
| Keweenaw County | 681 | 648 | 69 | 1,398 | D +2.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +23.9 and D +8.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +7.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +17.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +16.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +23.9 and D +8.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Tilley | Moeggenberg | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||