2026 forecast · Connecticut Treasurer
Erick Russell is all but certain to win Connecticut's treasurer race.
Erick Russell vs Fred Wilms, with Erick Russell running again. The model has Russell ahead by 21.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +21.4Updated October 22, 2026
Erick Russell
Democrat
60.0%
861,995 projected votes
Fred Wilms
Republican
38.7%
555,422 projected votes
100%Russell
0%Wilms
Russell all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Russell wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Russell +311,983 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +21.4, a 306,574 vote marginWilms +5,409 net votes from 2 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,435,542 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Russell D | 861,995 | 60.0% |
| Fred Wilms R | 555,422 | 38.7% |
| Other candidates | 18,123 | 1.3% |
| Total | 1,435,542 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
8 counties| County | Russell | Wilms | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 861,996 | 555,422 | 18,124 | 1,435,542 | D +21.4 |
| Hartford County | 255,381 | 136,650 | 5,012 | 397,043 | D +29.9 |
| Fairfield County | 202,782 | 113,211 | 4,040 | 320,033 | D +28.0 |
| New Haven County | 181,173 | 126,089 | 3,928 | 311,190 | D +17.7 |
| New London County | 75,382 | 50,746 | 1,613 | 127,741 | D +19.3 |
| Middlesex County | 50,277 | 34,138 | 1,080 | 85,495 | D +18.9 |
| Tolland County | 41,712 | 33,890 | 967 | 76,569 | D +10.2 |
| Litchfield County | 32,847 | 36,039 | 881 | 69,767 | R +4.6 |
| Windham County | 22,442 | 24,659 | 603 | 47,704 | R +4.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +29.9 and D +12.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +15.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +20.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +18.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +21.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +21.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +29.9 and D +12.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Russell | Wilms | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||