2026 forecast · Tennessee Governor
Marsha Blackburn is all but certain to win Tennessee's governorship.
Jerri Green vs Marsha Blackburn, an open seat. The model has Blackburn ahead by 11.9 points, winning 98 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Likely RModel R +11.9Polls R +14.2Updated October 22, 2026
Jerri Green
Democrat
40.7%
941,177 projected votes
Marsha Blackburn
Republican
52.6%
1,216,667 projected votes
98%Blackburn
2%Green
Blackburn all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Blackburn wins about 98 of 100
RatingLikely R98% chance for Blackburn
Model marginR +11.9Polls R +14.2
80 percent rangeR +4.3 to R +19.42,000 simulations
Projected votes2,311,563Blackburn 52.6%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Green +204,466 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide R +12.3, a 284,110 vote marginBlackburn +488,576 net votes from 91 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Jerri GreenDemocrat · 2% to win
3040506070
40.7%
Marsha BlackburnRepublican · 98% to win
3040506070
52.6%
Other / independentsO
3040506070
6.7%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,311,563 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Marsha Blackburn R | 1,216,667 | 52.6% |
| Jerri Green D | 941,177 | 40.7% |
| Other / independents O | 153,719 | 6.7% |
| Total | 2,311,563 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.3 and R +19.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Spry StrategiesOct 16 · 635 LV · C+83%Blackburn +11.5
TargetSmart (D)Sep 12 · 600 LV · NR14%Blackburn +9.0
Targoz Market ResearchAug 26 · 1,149 RV · C+2.7%Blackburn +13.0
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +14.2 | |
| Spry Strategies | 635 LV | 0d | R +11.532 to 43.5 |
| TargetSmart | 600 LV | 33d | R +9.036 to 45 |
| Targoz Market Research | 601 LV | 50d | R +21.034 to 55 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,200 RV | 171d | R +24.027 to 51 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Blackburn +11.9
Chance of winning
Jerri Green2%
Marsha Blackburn98%
Simulated vote
Jerri Green40.7%
Marsha Blackburn52.6%
Other / independents6.7%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +30.1
FundamentalsR +10.9
With pollsR +12.2
Early vote turnoutD +0.3
With early voteR +11.9
Read from 490,534 ballots cast so far in Tennessee, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
57 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Jerri Green34
- Steve CohenU.S. Representative TN-9source
- Lee HarrisShelby County Mayorsource
- Heidi CampbellState Senatorsource
- Andy BeshearGovernor of Kentuckysource
- Justin J. PearsonDemocratic nominee, TN-09; state representativesource
- Aftyn BehnTennessee state representativesource
- Raumesh AkbariTennessee state senator, Senate Democratic leadersource
- Sara KyleTennessee state senatorsource
Lauren Pinkston3
Marsha Blackburn20
- Chris ToddTennessee state representativesource
- Tim HicksTennessee state representativesource
- Donald TrumpPresidentsource
- Bill HagertyU.S. Senatorsource
- Tim BurchettU.S. Representative TN-2source
- Chuck FleischmannU.S. Representative TN-3source
- Matt Van EppsU.S. Representative TN-7source
- AFP State PACAmericans for Prosperity state PACsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Green | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 36.2 | 57.1 |
| Women | 53% | 44.0 | 49.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 44.0 | 48.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 41.7 | 51.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 38.8 | 54.6 |
| 65+ | 33% | 39.4 | 54.2 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 31.7 | 61.8 |
| Black | 14% | 78.5 | 14.5 |
| Latino | 3% | 53.3 | 39.8 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 63.5 | 28.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 26.8 | 66.8 |
| White women | 42% | 36.0 | 57.4 |
| Black men | 7% | 75.7 | 17.2 |
| Black women | 8% | 81.0 | 12.2 |
| Latino men | 1% | 51.8 | 41.1 |
| Latino women | 2% | 54.7 | 38.6 |
| All other races | 4% | 63.5 | 28.4 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
95 counties| County | Green | Blackburn | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 936,773 | 1,220,883 | 153,907 | 2,311,563 | R +12.3 |
| Shelby County | 173,138 | 75,170 | 17,831 | 266,139 | D +36.8 |
| Davidson County | 156,249 | 52,324 | 25,779 | 234,352 | D +44.4 |
| Knox County | 77,663 | 83,739 | 9,938 | 171,340 | R +3.7 |
| Hamilton County | 65,269 | 63,310 | 5,638 | 134,217 | D +1.5 |
| Williamson County | 43,834 | 56,803 | 6,652 | 107,289 | R +12.1 |
| Rutherford County | 47,462 | 51,168 | 6,856 | 105,486 | R +3.5 |
| Sumner County | 25,324 | 40,383 | 4,194 | 69,901 | R +21.6 |
| Montgomery County | 24,729 | 29,061 | 4,805 | 58,595 | R +7.5 |
| Wilson County | 20,086 | 34,644 | 3,432 | 58,162 | R +25.0 |
| Sullivan County | 16,307 | 37,336 | 2,469 | 56,112 | R +37.5 |
| Blount County | 16,802 | 31,367 | 2,911 | 51,080 | R +28.4 |
| Washington County | 17,922 | 26,179 | 2,865 | 46,966 | R +17.6 |
| Maury County | 12,828 | 23,416 | 2,437 | 38,681 | R +27.4 |
| Bradley County | 8,852 | 24,490 | 1,644 | 34,986 | R +44.7 |
| Madison County | 13,474 | 16,374 | 1,737 | 31,585 | R +9.1 |
| Sevier County | 8,005 | 21,010 | 2,251 | 31,266 | R +41.5 |
| Anderson County | 10,599 | 15,187 | 1,676 | 27,462 | R +16.7 |
| Putnam County | 9,139 | 15,342 | 1,956 | 26,437 | R +23.4 |
| Cumberland County | 6,409 | 18,612 | 1,207 | 26,228 | R +46.5 |
| Robertson County | 7,555 | 15,340 | 1,539 | 24,434 | R +31.9 |
| Loudon County | 6,707 | 16,180 | 1,384 | 24,271 | R +39.0 |
| Greene County | 5,477 | 15,942 | 1,711 | 23,130 | R +45.3 |
| Tipton County | 5,440 | 13,357 | 1,349 | 20,146 | R +39.3 |
| Roane County | 6,191 | 12,302 | 1,630 | 20,123 | R +30.4 |
| Carter County | 4,733 | 13,140 | 1,222 | 19,095 | R +44.0 |
| Hawkins County | 4,017 | 13,962 | 1,046 | 19,025 | R +52.3 |
| Jefferson County | 4,250 | 13,014 | 1,160 | 18,424 | R +47.5 |
| Hamblen County | 5,165 | 12,184 | 971 | 18,320 | R +38.3 |
| Coffee County | 5,297 | 11,568 | 1,348 | 18,213 | R +34.4 |
| Dickson County | 5,441 | 11,635 | 1,129 | 18,205 | R +34.1 |
| Fayette County | 5,393 | 11,682 | 842 | 17,917 | R +35.0 |
| McMinn County | 3,427 | 12,433 | 1,646 | 17,506 | R +51.5 |
| Gibson County | 4,349 | 10,871 | 1,181 | 16,401 | R +39.8 |
| Monroe County | 3,093 | 11,938 | 858 | 15,889 | R +55.7 |
| Cheatham County | 5,099 | 8,937 | 944 | 14,980 | R +25.6 |
| Franklin County | 4,393 | 9,711 | 868 | 14,972 | R +35.5 |
| Bedford County | 3,657 | 10,077 | 970 | 14,704 | R +43.7 |
| Lawrence County | 3,049 | 9,955 | 904 | 13,908 | R +49.8 |
| Warren County | 3,392 | 8,007 | 845 | 12,244 | R +37.7 |
| Lincoln County | 2,432 | 8,793 | 950 | 12,175 | R +52.1 |
| Marshall County | 2,889 | 8,066 | 837 | 11,792 | R +43.9 |
| Cocke County | 2,288 | 8,313 | 847 | 11,448 | R +52.7 |
| Dyer County | 2,577 | 7,914 | 765 | 11,256 | R +47.5 |
| Henry County | 3,259 | 7,188 | 714 | 11,161 | R +35.3 |
| Campbell County | 2,175 | 7,985 | 602 | 10,762 | R +53.9 |
| Rhea County | 1,852 | 8,398 | 438 | 10,688 | R +61.2 |
| Weakley County | 2,667 | 7,032 | 844 | 10,543 | R +41.5 |
| Giles County | 2,738 | 6,719 | 767 | 10,224 | R +38.9 |
| Marion County | 2,861 | 6,847 | 501 | 10,209 | R +39.0 |
| Obion County | 2,048 | 7,094 | 816 | 9,958 | R +50.6 |
| Claiborne County | 1,752 | 7,303 | 517 | 9,572 | R +58.0 |
| White County | 1,888 | 6,840 | 597 | 9,325 | R +53.2 |
| Carroll County | 2,061 | 6,616 | 564 | 9,241 | R +49.3 |
| Henderson County | 1,679 | 6,714 | 498 | 8,891 | R +56.6 |
| Hardin County | 1,563 | 6,802 | 478 | 8,843 | R +59.3 |
| McNairy County | 1,640 | 6,538 | 541 | 8,719 | R +56.2 |
| Overton County | 1,923 | 5,457 | 590 | 7,970 | R +44.3 |
| Hickman County | 2,022 | 5,231 | 463 | 7,716 | R +41.5 |
| Hardeman County | 3,097 | 4,098 | 394 | 7,589 | R +13.1 |
| Grainger County | 1,639 | 5,565 | 379 | 7,583 | R +51.8 |
| Fentress County | 1,186 | 5,322 | 468 | 6,976 | R +59.3 |
| Macon County | 1,328 | 5,082 | 497 | 6,907 | R +54.3 |
| DeKalb County | 1,752 | 4,662 | 461 | 6,875 | R +42.4 |
| Smith County | 1,735 | 4,479 | 519 | 6,733 | R +40.7 |
| Lauderdale County | 2,346 | 3,923 | 435 | 6,704 | R +23.5 |
| Unicoi County | 1,653 | 4,452 | 418 | 6,523 | R +42.9 |
| Johnson County | 1,194 | 4,952 | 365 | 6,511 | R +57.7 |
| Morgan County | 1,281 | 4,746 | 378 | 6,405 | R +54.1 |
| Polk County | 1,375 | 4,666 | 311 | 6,352 | R +51.8 |
| Humphreys County | 1,827 | 3,763 | 480 | 6,070 | R +31.9 |
| Union County | 1,110 | 4,479 | 338 | 5,927 | R +56.9 |
| Chester County | 1,255 | 4,172 | 408 | 5,835 | R +49.9 |
| Sequatchie County | 1,291 | 4,227 | 308 | 5,826 | R +50.5 |
| Scott County | 829 | 4,399 | 292 | 5,520 | R +64.7 |
| Benton County | 1,174 | 3,864 | 391 | 5,429 | R +49.5 |
| Haywood County | 2,830 | 2,216 | 204 | 5,250 | D +11.7 |
| Stewart County | 1,132 | 3,579 | 361 | 5,072 | R +48.3 |
| Wayne County | 865 | 3,848 | 306 | 5,019 | R +59.3 |
| Cannon County | 1,229 | 3,419 | 296 | 4,944 | R +44.3 |
| Bledsoe County | 1,053 | 3,430 | 256 | 4,739 | R +50.2 |
| Grundy County | 916 | 3,279 | 385 | 4,580 | R +51.6 |
| Meigs County | 901 | 3,222 | 301 | 4,424 | R +52.5 |
| Crockett County | 1,085 | 3,100 | 193 | 4,378 | R +46.0 |
| Lewis County | 1,046 | 3,006 | 268 | 4,320 | R +45.3 |
| Decatur County | 867 | 3,077 | 252 | 4,196 | R +52.7 |
| Jackson County | 1,115 | 2,617 | 401 | 4,133 | R +36.3 |
| Trousdale County | 905 | 1,963 | 183 | 3,051 | R +34.6 |
| Houston County | 836 | 1,922 | 221 | 2,979 | R +36.3 |
| Perry County | 503 | 1,995 | 191 | 2,689 | R +55.5 |
| Moore County | 541 | 1,949 | 173 | 2,663 | R +52.9 |
| Clay County | 574 | 1,797 | 184 | 2,555 | R +47.6 |
| Van Buren County | 544 | 1,647 | 190 | 2,381 | R +46.3 |
| Pickett County | 488 | 1,560 | 185 | 2,233 | R +48.1 |
| Hancock County | 314 | 1,406 | 144 | 1,864 | R +58.6 |
| Lake County | 427 | 1,000 | 217 | 1,644 | R +34.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.