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2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Proposition 132

Tougher fentanyl penalties

Raises felony penalties for fentanyl distribution and possession and requires court ordered treatment for low level possession. The forecast has Yes at 64.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteCriminal justiceUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
91%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
64.0%
80% range 51 to 76
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
64.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
64.0% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

Also on the Colorado ballot

Proposition NN
Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
95%
Amendment 81
Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS
37%
Amendment 82
Constitutional right to natural gas
18%
Amendment 83
Constitutional right to hunt and fish
76%
Amendment 84
ID number required on mail ballots
66%
Amendment 85
Plain language ballot questions
13%
Amendment 86
Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting
6%
Amendment 87
Graduated income tax for schools and health
33%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
91%
Proposition 134
School sports teams by biological sex
58%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
51%
Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%

Proposition 132 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
El Paso County: Yes +116,168Jefferson County: Yes +78,731Arapahoe County: Yes +70,505Douglas County: Yes +67,890Weld County: Yes +58,640Adams County: Yes +56,080Larimer County: Yes +49,255Mesa County: Yes +32,217Denver County: Yes +25,557Pueblo County: Yes +25,471Boulder County: Yes +14,158Fremont County: Yes +10,379Montrose County: Yes +9,669Broomfield County: Yes +8,486Garfield County: Yes +8,331Elbert County: Yes +8,025La Plata County: Yes +7,897Delta County: Yes +7,538Teller County: Yes +6,347Morgan County: Yes +5,753Eagle County: Yes +5,621Montezuma County: Yes +5,253Logan County: Yes +4,869Park County: Yes +3,976Chaffee County: Yes +3,315Otero County: Yes +3,275Moffat County: Yes +3,255Routt County: Yes +3,085Archuleta County: Yes +2,975Grand County: Yes +2,766Summit County: Yes +2,717Las Animas County: Yes +2,590Alamosa County: Yes +2,414Yuma County: Yes +2,347Prowers County: Yes +2,342Rio Grande County: Yes +2,166Gunnison County: Yes +2,018Kit Carson County: Yes +1,870Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,779Washington County: Yes +1,532Custer County: Yes +1,472Pitkin County: Yes +1,429Clear Creek County: Yes +1,405Huerfano County: Yes +1,389Conejos County: Yes +1,374Lincoln County: Yes +1,332Phillips County: Yes +1,149Baca County: Yes +1,051Bent County: Yes +955Gilpin County: Yes +951Saguache County: Yes +934Lake County: Yes +873Crowley County: Yes +861Ouray County: Yes +817Dolores County: Yes +662Sedgwick County: Yes +623Cheyenne County: Yes +584San Miguel County: Yes +499Costilla County: Yes +478Kiowa County: Yes +457Jackson County: Yes +375Hinsdale County: Yes +190Mineral County: Yes +174San Juan County: Yes +85
Yes +747,381 net votes from 64 countiesStatewide Yes +28.1, a 747,381 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,661,961 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,704,67164.0%
No957,29036.0%
Total2,661,961100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County216,184100,016316,20068.4%
Denver County169,249143,692312,94154.1%
Jefferson County192,061113,330305,39162.9%
Arapahoe County173,397102,892276,28962.8%
Douglas County128,97761,087190,06467.9%
Adams County121,99665,916187,91264.9%
Larimer County117,50268,247185,74963.3%
Boulder County91,38577,227168,61254.2%
Weld County101,29742,657143,95470.4%
Mesa County54,53622,31976,85571.0%
Pueblo County49,07223,60172,67367.5%
Broomfield County23,50215,01638,51861.0%
La Plata County19,07011,17330,24363.1%
Garfield County17,0128,68125,69366.2%
Eagle County14,6319,01023,64161.9%
Fremont County16,2035,82422,02773.6%
Montrose County15,6005,93121,53172.5%
Delta County11,9564,41816,37473.0%
Elbert County11,7223,69715,41976.0%
Summit County8,8486,13114,97959.1%
Teller County10,0713,72413,79573.0%
Routt County8,4385,35313,79161.2%
Montezuma County9,0733,82012,89370.4%
Chaffee County7,5564,24111,79764.1%
Morgan County8,5072,75411,26175.5%
Park County7,0633,08710,15069.6%
Pitkin County5,5134,0849,59757.4%
Gunnison County5,6693,6519,32060.8%
Logan County6,9142,0458,95977.2%
Grand County5,5132,7478,26066.7%
Archuleta County5,3762,4017,77769.1%
Otero County5,4722,1977,66971.4%
Las Animas County4,6982,1086,80669.0%
Alamosa County4,4592,0456,50468.6%
Moffat County4,4751,2205,69578.6%
Clear Creek County3,3131,9085,22163.5%
Rio Grande County3,6921,5265,21870.8%
Prowers County3,4351,0934,52875.9%
San Miguel County2,3131,8144,12756.0%
Yuma County3,1858384,02379.2%
Huerfano County2,6081,2193,82768.1%
Conejos County2,4211,0473,46869.8%
Gilpin County2,1511,2003,35164.2%
Ouray County2,0321,2153,24762.6%
Lake County2,0571,1843,24163.5%
Custer County2,3288563,18473.1%
Kit Carson County2,5036333,13679.8%
Rio Blanco County2,4386593,09778.7%
Saguache County1,9361,0022,93865.9%
Washington County1,9774452,42281.6%
Lincoln County1,8174852,30278.9%
Bent County1,4895342,02373.6%
Phillips County1,5804312,01178.6%
Costilla County1,1046261,73063.8%
Baca County1,3883371,72580.5%
Crowley County1,2794181,69775.4%
Dolores County9602981,25876.3%
Sedgwick County8872641,15177.1%
Cheyenne County74115789882.5%
Kiowa County59113472581.5%
Jackson County53415969377.1%
Hinsdale County34715750468.8%
Mineral County31614245869.0%
San Juan County25216741960.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition 132 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.