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2026 forecast · Illinois 5th

Mike Quigley is all but certain to win Illinois's 5th District.

Mike Quigley vs Tommy Hanson. The model has Quigley ahead by 57.1 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +57.1Updated October 22, 2026
Mike Quigley
Democrat
78.5%
203,309 projected votes
Tommy Hanson
Republican
21.5%
55,540 projected votes
100%Quigley
0%Hanson
Quigley all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Quigley wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Quigley
Model marginD +57.1No polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +64.0 to D +49.82,000 simulations
Projected votes258,849Quigley 78.5%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Illinois districts

17 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Mike QuigleyDemocrat · 100% to win
78.5%
Tommy HansonRepublican · 0% to win
21.5%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

258,849 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Mike Quigley D203,30978.5%
Tommy Hanson R55,54021.5%
Total258,849100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Quigley0% Hanson15 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Illinois governor polling average
30%35%40%45%50%55%60%MayJunJulAugSepOct54.0Pritzker34.0Bailey
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Public Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklyOct 1 · 569 LV · D->99%Pritzker +20.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Quigley +57.1
Chance of winning
Mike Quigley100%
Tommy Hanson0%
Simulated vote
Mike Quigley78.5%
Tommy Hanson21.5%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +37.0
FundamentalsD +57.0
With pollsD +56.8
Early vote turnoutD +0.2
With early voteD +57.1

Read from 0 ballots cast so far in Illinois, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +69R +69Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +37.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +57.0With pollsno pollsD +56.8With early voteturnout so farD +57.1
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.