Byron Donalds is favored to win Florida's governorship.
David Jolly vs Byron Donalds, an open seat. The model has Donalds ahead by 4.6 points, winning 79 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
8,942,278 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds R | 4,604,278 | 51.5% |
| David Jolly D | 4,189,559 | 46.9% |
| Other / write-in O | 148,442 | 1.7% |
| Total | 8,942,278 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.5 and R +12.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +3.9 | |
| On Point Polling | 378 LV | 0d | R +4.242.4 to 46.6 |
| YouGov for N+ Univision | 825 RV | 0d | R +8.042 to 50 |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 0d | R +3.448.3 to 51.7 |
| University of North Florida | 1,471 LV | 0d | R +2.047 to 49 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,014 LV | 0d | R +9.040 to 49 |
| Change Research | 920 LV | 5d | Even47 to 47 |
| MDW Communications (D) | 2,351 LV | 5d | R +2.143.8 to 45.9 |
| Stetson University | 716 LV | 6d | R +11.041 to 52 |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 8d | Even45 to 45 |
| YouGov | 3,813 LV | 10d | R +2.045 to 47 |
| Targoz Market Research (R) | 1,000 LV | 11d | R +10.042 to 52 |
| Mason-Dixon for Telemundo | 625 LV | 14d | R +7.041 to 48 |
| Change Research | 1,063 LV | 17d | D +1.048 to 47 |
| Stetson University | 830 LV | 24d | R +12.039 to 51 |
| St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | 28d | R +1.043 to 44 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,107 LV | 36d | D +3.047 to 44 |
| Hart Research Associates (D) | 600 LV | 63d | D +1.046 to 45 |
| Fabrizio Lee for Donalds (R) | 1,200 LV | 65d | R +6.043 to 49 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,026 LV | 81d | R +7.038 to 45 |
| University of North Florida | 848 LV | 90d | R +5.041 to 46 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,348 RV | 96d | D +0.539 to 38.5 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,593 LV | 152d | D +4.046 to 42 |
| Cherry Communications (R) | 604 LV | 159d | R +8.039 to 47 |
| Stetson University | 848 LV | 185d | R +7.040 to 47 |
| Echelon Insights | 406 LV | 189d | R +6.043 to 49 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 1,677,075 ballots cast so far in Florida, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
97 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Maxwell Alejandro FrostU.S. Rep., FL-10source
- Donna ShalalaFormer HHS Secretary and former U.S. Rep.source
- Alex SinkFormer Florida CFO, 2010 governor nomineesource
- Patrick MurphyFormer U.S. Rep., FL-18source
- Ron KleinFormer U.S. Rep., FL-22source
- Allen BoydFormer U.S. Rep., FL-02source
- Betty CastorFormer Florida Education Commissionersource
- Eric SmithFormer Florida Education Commissioner (Republican)source
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Florida governor from Solid R to Likely R. source
Joey Jones: Asked Byron Donalds whether he needs to make a pledge to voters wary of data centers given industry donations. source
Steve Bannon: War Room episode on the GOP governor primary hosted candidate James Fishback ahead of the vote. source
Margaret Brennan: Interviewed Byron Donalds, who blamed Florida's measles outbreak on illegal immigration. source
Peter Alexander: Repeatedly fact-checked Byron Donalds on inflation and prices during and after a live interview. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Jolly | Donalds |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 44.8 | 53.6 |
| Women | 53% | 51.3 | 47.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 11% | 49.6 | 48.7 |
| 30 to 44 | 19% | 45.7 | 52.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 48.7 | 49.6 |
| 65+ | 39% | 48.7 | 49.7 |
| RaceWhite | 61% | 36.6 | 61.7 |
| Black | 14% | 81.9 | 16.6 |
| Latino | 20% | 56.1 | 42.4 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 66.7 | 31.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 28% | 31.1 | 67.3 |
| White women | 33% | 41.4 | 56.9 |
| Black men | 7% | 78.2 | 20.3 |
| Black women | 7% | 85.3 | 13.1 |
| Latino men | 10% | 55.6 | 42.8 |
| Latino women | 10% | 56.4 | 42.1 |
| All other races | 5% | 66.7 | 31.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Jolly | Donalds | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,180,082 | 4,614,207 | 147,989 | 8,942,278 | R +4.9 |
| Miami-Dade County | 432,276 | 408,344 | 10,210 | 850,830 | D +2.5 |
| Broward County | 452,784 | 246,196 | 7,775 | 706,755 | D +29.2 |
| Palm Beach County | 341,062 | 275,879 | 6,862 | 623,803 | D +10.3 |
| Hillsborough | 293,888 | 254,194 | 11,756 | 559,838 | D +6.9 |
| Orange County | 290,408 | 194,439 | 8,385 | 493,232 | D +19.5 |
| Pinellas County | 238,993 | 207,382 | 9,574 | 455,949 | D +6.8 |
| Duval County | 202,082 | 181,071 | 6,230 | 389,383 | D +5.3 |
| Lee County | 119,542 | 202,540 | 4,905 | 326,987 | R +25.6 |
| Brevard County | 125,057 | 167,623 | 5,973 | 298,653 | R +14.3 |
| Polk County | 114,802 | 154,968 | 6,069 | 275,839 | R +14.7 |
| Volusia County | 108,237 | 142,975 | 5,126 | 256,338 | R +13.6 |
| Pasco County | 102,808 | 146,607 | 6,395 | 255,810 | R +17.2 |
| Sarasota County | 107,430 | 128,622 | 4,083 | 240,135 | R +9.1 |
| Seminole County | 104,610 | 99,113 | 3,946 | 207,669 | D +2.5 |
| Manatee County | 80,178 | 108,605 | 4,049 | 192,832 | R +14.9 |
| Collier County | 62,643 | 119,580 | 1,655 | 183,878 | R +31.2 |
| Lake County | 70,597 | 108,464 | 3,468 | 182,529 | R +20.8 |
| Marion County | 62,901 | 109,261 | 3,514 | 175,676 | R +26.4 |
| St. Johns County | 57,986 | 98,864 | 2,066 | 158,916 | R +25.9 |
| St. Lucie County | 67,144 | 76,439 | 2,186 | 145,769 | R +6.5 |
| Leon County | 88,267 | 46,444 | 1,913 | 136,624 | D +30.6 |
| Escambia County | 55,782 | 76,156 | 2,281 | 134,219 | R +15.3 |
| Osceola County | 65,089 | 61,250 | 2,579 | 128,918 | D +2.9 |
| Alachua County | 75,284 | 39,387 | 1,746 | 116,417 | D +30.7 |
| Charlotte County | 35,869 | 65,479 | 2,174 | 103,522 | R +28.8 |
| Clay County | 31,999 | 67,498 | 1,617 | 101,114 | R +35.2 |
| Sumter County | 30,522 | 62,537 | 940 | 93,999 | R +34.2 |
| Okaloosa County | 27,362 | 62,960 | 1,844 | 92,166 | R +38.8 |
| Hernando County | 31,802 | 56,186 | 2,071 | 90,059 | R +27.1 |
| Santa Rosa County | 22,094 | 64,232 | 1,493 | 87,819 | R +48.0 |
| Indian River County | 33,206 | 50,233 | 1,271 | 84,710 | R +20.3 |
| Martin County | 31,955 | 50,786 | 1,175 | 83,916 | R +22.7 |
| Citrus County | 25,299 | 54,996 | 2,143 | 82,438 | R +36.2 |
| Bay County | 21,171 | 55,693 | 1,329 | 78,193 | R +44.2 |
| Flagler County | 24,853 | 39,434 | 1,112 | 65,399 | R +22.5 |
| Nassau County | 15,201 | 35,860 | 725 | 51,786 | R +40.1 |
| Highlands County | 14,229 | 29,045 | 973 | 44,247 | R +33.6 |
| Walton County | 9,245 | 29,834 | 555 | 39,634 | R +52.0 |
| Monroe County | 17,326 | 19,637 | 563 | 37,526 | R +6.5 |
| Putnam County | 8,762 | 20,405 | 596 | 29,763 | R +39.3 |
| Columbia County | 7,281 | 19,530 | 436 | 27,247 | R +45.1 |
| Levy County | 5,274 | 14,133 | 376 | 19,783 | R +44.9 |
| Gadsden County | 13,111 | 5,804 | 191 | 19,106 | D +38.4 |
| Jackson County | 5,671 | 12,637 | 241 | 18,549 | R +37.6 |
| Suwannee County | 3,947 | 13,839 | 290 | 18,076 | R +54.7 |
| Wakulla County | 5,313 | 10,743 | 311 | 16,367 | R +33.2 |
| Okeechobee County | 3,333 | 9,432 | 260 | 13,025 | R +47.0 |
| Baker County | 1,779 | 10,075 | 156 | 12,010 | R +69.2 |
| Bradford County | 2,718 | 8,476 | 193 | 11,387 | R +50.5 |
| Hendry County | 3,138 | 7,155 | 210 | 10,503 | R +38.4 |
| DeSoto County | 3,161 | 7,060 | 230 | 10,451 | R +37.4 |
| Washington County | 1,967 | 8,072 | 184 | 10,223 | R +59.7 |
| Gilchrist County | 1,419 | 6,986 | 154 | 8,559 | R +65.0 |
| Taylor County | 2,007 | 6,263 | 135 | 8,405 | R +50.4 |
| Madison County | 2,938 | 4,690 | 70 | 7,698 | R +22.9 |
| Holmes County | 884 | 6,536 | 136 | 7,556 | R +74.7 |
| Jefferson County | 3,420 | 3,929 | 97 | 7,446 | R +6.9 |
| Gulf County | 1,801 | 5,287 | 116 | 7,204 | R +48.5 |
| Dixie County | 1,061 | 5,574 | 150 | 6,785 | R +66.5 |
| Hardee County | 1,603 | 5,015 | 156 | 6,774 | R +50.5 |
| Franklin County | 1,871 | 3,899 | 106 | 5,876 | R +34.7 |
| Calhoun County | 1,011 | 4,225 | 102 | 5,338 | R +60.0 |
| Union County | 928 | 4,203 | 89 | 5,220 | R +62.6 |
| Hamilton County | 1,672 | 3,105 | 68 | 4,845 | R +29.8 |
| Glades County | 1,098 | 3,284 | 85 | 4,467 | R +48.9 |
| Lafayette County | 427 | 2,698 | 44 | 3,169 | R +71.5 |
| Liberty County | 504 | 2,339 | 76 | 2,919 | R +62.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.